Vietnam rice exporters brace for price weakness as Philippines extends import ban

Vietnamese rice prices could come under pressure as the Philippines has extended its current two-month rice import ban for at least another 30 days, intensifying demand uncertainty from one of the world's top buyers, according to market sources Sept. 30.

The extension, approved by Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr., was announced by Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. on Sept. 29, who stated that the measure aims to support Filipino farmers during the peak harvest season.

The Philippines has been Vietnam's biggest rice buyer in 2025, importing 2.9 million mt over January-August, up slightly from 2.8 million mt during the same period of 2024, according to preliminary data from Vietnam Customs.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed Vietnamese Fragrant 5% rice at $449/mt FOB on Sept. 30, up $4/mt from the previous day but down $45/mt from Aug. 6, when the Philippines first announced the import suspension.

Tiu Laurel said the buying price of palay (unhusked rice) has dropped to Peso 8/kg in 2025 after reaching about Peso 14/kg in some areas, and even as high as Peso 17/kg in Zamboanga at the onset of the temporary rice import ban during the start of the harvest.

Consequently, "the government is likely to raise the current 15-percent tariff back to a higher level by the end of the import halt," Tiu Laurel said.

The Philippines' dry-season rice planting window runs from September to February, peaking in November-December. It imposed a 60-day rice import suspension beginning Sept. 1. In 2024, the country reduced rice import duty to 15% from 35% to augment supply.

Market impact

The prolonged absence of Philippine purchases has begun to impact the Vietnamese market.

"There is not much paddy left in Vietnam, and now that the export ban is extended, it could trigger a bearish trend," said a seller from Ho Chi Minh City.

"Vietnamese sellers will be under pressure to liquidate stocks, while Philippine buyers will still need to purchase, as the country needs rice. Many suppliers have already committed to November shipments; with the extension, buyers will have to support the sellers and adjust accordingly," the seller said. "Africa currently has a surplus of rice, but lower prices could drive increased shipments there."

Market sources noted that near-term price weakness could occur; however, the constrained supply may temper the effect.

"The Vietnamese market could turn more bearish, but the impact may not be very strong. Prices may fall another $10-$20/mt," Vivek Aggarwal, business head for rice, Seri Food, said. "Africa has negligible demand due to oversupply, although buying from the Ivory Coast and Ghana may pick up closer to Christmas. Philippine buyers who booked advance contracts may now need to renegotiate."

Another Vietnam-based trader said Vietnam has already exported about 7.4 million mt out of its 8 million target for the year. "With the next major harvest in February-March, there is not much left to sell."

According to Vietnam Customs data as of Sept. 18, the country exported 6.6 million mt of rice from Jan. 1 to Sept. 15, down 1.6% year over year.

Seasonal and weather-related constraints have added to the pressure on Vietnamese rice exporters.

Heavy rainfall has affected much of Vietnam, particularly in the central and northern regions, following Typhoon Bualoi's landfall in the early hours of Sept. 29, according to several media reports.

"With typhoons affecting crops in the north, and weak demand from Africa, China and the Philippines, transactions are minimal," said another seller from Ho Chi Minh City. "Weather could continue to affect future crops."