COMMODITY TRACKER: 6 charts to watch this week

Global blue hydrogen capacity expands as fertilizer companies drive development. Meanwhile, Indian methanol and Thai rice prices decline amid shifting market conditions. Brazil imposes duties on Chinese coated steel, while Canadian wheat prices strengthen.

1. Ammonia market drives blue hydrogen development

What's happening? Global blue hydrogen capacity reached 1.7 million metric ton/year by the end of 2025, according to S&P Global Energy Horizons, with fertilizer companies leading development. In July 2025, CF Industries commissioned its first major project and secured offtake deals with JERA and Mitsui & Co. for a second US project. LSB Industries is nearly finished with the retrofit of its Arkansas ammonia plant with carbon capture.

What's next? The US Gulf Coast remains a primary development target, while Japan and South Korea are expected to be key offtake markets due to government incentives for ammonia cofiring in power plants. Even so, the development pipeline is shrinking, with almost 6 million mt/y of planned capacity canceled or suspended in the second half of 2025.

2. India methanol prices fall to 6-month low

What's happening? Indian methanol prices have dropped to a six-month low, reaching $292.50/mt CFR on Feb. 20, the lowest level since Aug. 11, 2025, when the price was assessed at $294/mt, Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, data showed. West Coast India inventories remained high at above 200,00 mt of methanol as of Feb. 15, according to importers, while market sources also reported ullage issues. Domestic ex-tank methanol prices hit their lowest since Nov. 20, 2025, at Rupees 28.75/kg on Feb. 20.

What's next? The market could face challenging weeks ahead, according to industry sources, with product lifted from ports down by almost 40% month over month as of mid-February. The end of the Indian financial year and approaching Holi festivities could further dampen trade activity in March, market participants said. While downstream producers are struggling with cash flow issues amid ullage issues at ports, domestic ex-tank prices are likely to remain under pressure in the near term, market sources said.

3. Thai rice prices fall amid weak demand

What's happening? Thai 5% broken white rice prices have declined to a near one-month low at $374/mt FOB Feb. 18, down $11/mt week over week and $35/mt year over year, marking the lowest price since Jan. 20. The decline has been attributed to a weaker baht and slow buying interest, as reported by sellers and buyers in Thailand and South Africa. Despite the drop, Thai rice remains the highest-priced among Asian origins, trading at a significant premium to Pakistan, Vietnam, India and Myanmar, Platts data showed.

What's next? Market sources anticipate continued price pressure as new-crop supplies are set to enter the market in the coming weeks and buying interest remains subdued. Thailand's rice exports are projected at 7.7 million mt in 2025-26, down 2% year over year, according to S&P Global Energy CERA. However, any sustained weakening of the baht or an increase in regional demand could help stabilize prices after the current harvest-driven downturn, sources said.

4. Brazil imposes antidumping duties on Chinese coated steel

What's happening? Brazil has approved definitive antidumping duties on Chinese coated flat steel, with rates ranging from $284.98/mt to $709.63/mt for up to five years. The duties, effective Feb. 18, were initiated by domestic producers ArcelorMittal, CSN and Usiminas, according to market sources. A trader said Brazilian imports of coated flat steel nearly tripled between 2019 and 2025, with China supplying nearly 90% of volumes. Market participants are cautiously awaiting domestic mill price adjustments, with distributors holding back.

What's next? A trader said Vietnam may replace China in coated and pre-painted steel markets. A source at a Chinese mill suggested Brazil will likely absorb the duties, potentially causing a temporary import volume slowdown. Qualification requirements may limit supplier substitution in specialized segments like hot-dip galvanized steel for automotive and appliance industries.

5. Canadian wheat prices rise

What's happening? Canadian Western Red Spring wheat prices reached a three-week high at $266.39/metric ton on Feb. 20, up $5.52 week over week, according to Platts. Traders noted the $6 price point as a key motivator for farmers to release grain supplies from storage.

What's next? The market remains cautious, with traders expecting further developments in the coming week. Global wheat supplies continue to impact market sentiment, although a recent technical rally has temporarily reinvigorated trading activity.

6. Turkish polypropylene fiber prices rise on supply tightness

What's happening? Polypropylene fiber grade prices in Turkey increased to $920/mt on Feb. 18, up $40/mt week over week and $70/mt since January. Market participants highlighted import delays as sellers redirected allocations to other regions amid macroeconomic challenges such as currency pressures and high interest rates. Healthier demand and pre-Ramadan inventory stocking further tightened supply, compelling buyers to accept seller-driven price increases.

What's next? Market sources anticipate the upward price trend to continue in the coming weeks. Despite expected reduced buying interest during Ramadan, sellers are likely to maintain price increases to protect margins amid persistent supply constraints, sources said.

Reporting and analysis by Siri Hedreen, James Burgess, Ruchira Singh, Kamna Kapoor, Muskan Agarwal, Tanya Rana, Camila Martinez, Maham Quadri, Kayley Mills