Calgary Market Briefing

• Aaron Brady, Executive Director, S&P Global Energy
• Pat Harrington, Americas Director, Crude & Fuel Oil, S&P Global Energy

Topics include:

• How will Middle East tensions impact oil flows and production?
• How will global oil inventories rebuild?
• What role will China and Asia play in determining price direction?
• What are the most likely paths for crude prices and market balances through 2027?

• Celina Hwang, Director, Canadian Crude Oil Markets, S&P Global Energy

• Ian Archer, Associate Director, S&P Global Energy

Topics include:

• How will North American LNG evolve given the tumultuous global market?
• Is the AI bubble “real” and how much gas demand will we see from large power load?
• Will winter 2025-26 see a rally in North American natural gas prices? When will we see sustained price support?

Jordon Woloschuk, Associate Director, Canadian NGLs, S&P Global Energy

Salvador Uribe, Associate Price Reporter, Light Ends, S&P Global Energy

• Canada’s Evolving NGL Market: How robust domestic production and rising global demand are accelerating the need for expanded international market access.
• Strategic Marine Export Terminals: Capitalizing on Canada's geographic advantages, including shorter shipping routes to Asia, through a wave of upcoming export facilities.
• Crude Egress & Diluent Demand: The potential impact that new crude pipelines will have on local diluent requirements, and the Edmonton condensate vs. USGC natural gasoline price spread.
• NGL Pricing & Global Competitiveness: Analyzing structural differentials between domestic hubs (Edmonton, Sarnia) and US benchmarks, and how West Coast export capacity is impacting domestic valuations.

• Shiva Gupta, Executive Director, S&P Global Energy

• Matthew Andre, Associate Director, Crude Oil Long-Term Research & Analytics, S&P Global Energy

S&P Global evaluated four medium-term oil market scenarios (2026-31), ranging from a return to prewar conditions to a prolonged disruption of the Strait of Hormuz. Using ASW 2026 as the reference case (or prewar case), the analysis assesses how varying levels of disruption affect supply, demand, prices, trade flows, and investment. While Rapid Recovery and Precarious Recovery largely preserve current market dynamics, Quagmire assumes a multi-year Hormuz disruption that drives structural changes in demand, policy, investment, and energy security, resulting in persistently higher oil prices and a slower market rebalancing process.

• Kevin Birn, Head of Carbon and Center of Emissions Excellence, S&P Global Energy

• Sidharth Kwatra, Analyst, Center of Emission Excellence, S&P Global Energy

• How is the carbon intensity of crude oil modeled?
• What data sources are used to determine emissions?
• What are the major factors driving differences in carbon intensity across global crude oil grades?

• Paulina Cañedo, Associate Price Reporting Researcher, S&P Global Energy

• Strait of Hormuz: Freight pricing impact
• Tonnage availability and overall market sentiment
• America's tanker update and Vancouver loading benchmarks

• Tinu Abraham, Principal Analyst, Emissions Modeling, S&P Global Energy

Topics inlcude:

• What are the key factors driving differences in carbon intensities of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other refined products, even when produced at the same refinery? 
• What drives differences in the life-cycle emission intensity of refined products across major supply chains? 
• How does linking crude-level and product-level carbon intensity data enable a true well-to-market emissions view for downstream value chains?     

If you’re not able to attend, we’re happy to transfer your registration to a member of your organization up to 2 business days in advance of the event.

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