Soybean

The soybean market enters 2026 defined by record supply. It is driven by another very large Brazilian crop of around 180 million tonnes. Brazil alone accounts for roughly 42 percent of world output, and Brazil and the United States together supply about 70 percent, so weather and logistics in a handful of regions set the tone for global prices.

Demand rests on two pillars, and their divergence is the defining structural trend. Soybean meal demand follows livestock and feed consumption, while soybean oil demand is increasingly shaped by biofuel policy, with close to half of US soybean oil now moving into renewable diesel and biomass-based fuel. Crush is therefore pulled by both feed and fuel at once, which supports processing margins even when raw bean prices soften.

Trade concentration keeps policy risk high. Global soybean trade runs near 188 million tonnes, and China alone imports about 112 million tonnes, so tariff friction, port capacity, and freight can move the market as much as farm yields. US and China trade tension continues to shape how much US-origin supply clears, while Brazil's export-oriented logistics let it absorb incremental Chinese demand.

Regional shifts round out the picture. Argentina lifted crush and exports, India returned to importing beans for crushing after a weaker monsoon and smaller crop, and comfortable ending stocks across the system mean weather scares fade faster than in tight years.

Key macro trends shaping soybean markets

Record South American supply, the crush economics of meal versus oil, biofuel and renewable-diesel policy, US and China trade and tariff friction, Chinese import demand and crush margins, freight and port logistics, currency competitiveness such as the Brazilian real, livestock and feed demand, weather and yield risk in Brazil and the US, ending stocks and stocks-to-use buffers, sustainability and land-use scrutiny, and substitution across the wider oilseed complex.

Soybean prices are under downward pressure in 2026. The combination of a record Brazilian harvest, a large global crop, and favourable weather across major US growing areas pushed prices lower, with US export prices falling to their weakest level since early 2026 and the USDA season-average farm price easing to around 10.40 US dollars per bushel from a higher level earlier in the cycle.

The complex is not moving as one, though. Raw bean values carry the weight of oversupply, while soybean oil finds support from renewable-diesel demand and soybean meal tracks feed consumption and competitive pricing. That split means crush margins can hold up even as the bean itself weakens.

Prices remain sensitive to timing rather than headline volumes. Export disruptions, strong crush pull, or a shift in Chinese buying can tighten availability quickly even in a large-crop year, so the market reads Brazilian harvest progress, US crush pace and stocks, and Chinese import behaviour more closely than the world production total.