Look Forward | Episode 9: India Forward: Shifting Horizons

View Full Transcript

Andy Critchlow: [00:00:00] Hello, my name's Andy Critchlow. I'm head of news at S&P Global Commodity Insights, and welcome to the Look Forward Podcast from S&P Global. In today's rapidly shifting Markets success depends on anticipating what's next. The professionals who excel are those who can spot emerging trends before they fully materialize.

Look Forward podcast delivers exactly that insights to help you prepare for tomorrow's opportunities and challenges. We bring you expert perspectives on macroeconomic trends, capital markets, energy transition, and global trade. With a sharp focus on what these developments mean for the decisions that will shape your tomorrow.

This podcast connects you with S&P Global's Look Forward council bringing cutting edge research on long-term trends and transformative [00:01:00] market shifts. Together we are committed to providing the forward-looking intelligence you need to navigate uncertainty with confidence. Welcome to the Look Forward Podcast, where we explore the forces shaping tomorrow's global economy.

I'm your host, Andy Critchlow, head of News at S&P Global Commodity Insights, and today we turn our lens to one of the world's most dynamic and resilient markets, India. As the global geopolitical and macroeconomic horizon shifts in unprecedented ways, India stands as a critical inflection point with a diversified economy, adaptive policymaking, the BOL sectoral strategies.

India is not just weathering global volatility. It's positioning itself as a decisive player In the next chapter of global growth. From private credit expansion and trade reconfiguration to digital infrastructure and nuclear energy [00:02:00] reform. India's multidimensional approach reflects a whole systems mindset.

It's a story of resilience, ambition, and transformation. In this episode, we will focus on unpacking the soon to be published India Forward report. The S&P Global Look Forward Council will unpack India's outlook for 2025 and 26 and beyond. Explore the sectors driving its moment and ask what it'll take for India to seize its place as a global economic and geopolitical powerhouse.

Joining me today in conversation is an expert panel from S&P Global. I'm joined by, Gauri Jauhar, executive Director of Consulting, for energy transition. Deepa Kumar, head of Asia Pacific Country Risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence and Atal Arya, chief Energy strategist at S&P Global Commodity Insights. Atul, I'd like to come [00:03:00] to you first. Can you give us a brief overview of the India Forward, report, and, and how that links into the work that the S&P Global Look Forward Council is doing on, you know, delving into the potential of these huge, economies like India at the moment.

Atul Arya: Yeah. Thank you Andy. It's great to join you and, and Deepa and Gauri for this, podcast. And so, so as you know, as our, our, listeners will know, S&P Global, has something called the Look Forward Council, which is our Thought Leadership group is made up of our colleagues across all of the enterprise from different divisions and the India research chapter, which

Deepa and Gauri launched a couple of years back is, is focusing on the key dynamics in India. And this report, the India Forward report is the third in the series of reports we have done, at least the fourth in the series of reports to be corrected. We have done on India. The first was done under the umbrella of the Look Forward Council.

And the [00:04:00] next, this was the third one being done under the umbrella of the India research chapter. And each of these reports we look at many different aspects of India. And given what is happening both in the global context and in India at this time, it's very timely, report.

Andy Critchlow: So, moving next to, you know, Deepa and Gauri.

Given the focus of the report, how is in, in, in, in India leveraging its domestic strengths at the moment? Of course, huge economy, huge population, and huge potential, for growth. But it's, it's also an economy in a country of many contrasts. So can you give us a, an idea of, you know, around these issues, the adaptive policymaking and how the country's maintaining its resil resilience, really in, in what is a pretty volatile world?

Where, you know, lots of other countries and economies are getting buffered by external shocks like tariffs or policy changes.

Deepa Kumar: Yeah. Thank, [00:05:00] thank you for that question, Andy, and good to be here with you, and Atul and Gauri and very true point I think one my favorite quotes about India is everything that you say, even the opposite can be true.

So it is indeed a land of contrast. And that's a good segue to, you know, how we're looking at some of these, trade strategies and other economic strategies that India is applying this year. It's a story essentially of how India balances its domestic buffers and some of the external challenges that have developed.

What helps India is that it's still a very domestically driven demand economy. So what we've seen recently is say, you know, even with some of the announcements for rationalizing the goods and services tax, it's pretty clear that the government is, you know, putting that impetus more towards private consumption and shoring up the domestic economy.

Having said that, it's, it's not a trade averse country. It's just a country that likes to choreograph its trade very specifically towards domestic needs. So what we're going to see is more of that choreographing happening, which involves both goods and services. So it, we always say that looking at [00:06:00] services as,

important for India as it is just looking at goods and there's room to grow, right? Right now, only 2% of the global market is Indian goods, and 4% of the global market is Indian services. So they definitely wanna push that number up and do it in a diversified way. Right now, most of the traders located with a few countries and a few pockets.

The idea is link trade with political trust, but ensure that it allows for greater integration of Indian goods and services and inward capital flow that allows for domestic manufacturing to grow in the decades to come.

Andy Critchlow: Deepa, could I just delve a little bit more into that? It's a really interesting point you make.

You know, in that manufacturing space, I think that India, you know, traditionally, certainly in the last 10, 20 years, you know, it has a presence globally as a, you know, when we talk about finished commodities like steel for example, you know, there is a, a, a a cost benefit producing steel in India. But do you see India moving more into the more high value manufacturing sectors, let's say electronics, for example?[00:07:00]

Deepa Kumar: Absolutely, and I think electronics is a great example of that. It's already started happening. India smartphone exports specifically have significantly grown over the last year and they are one of the more important, exporters of that. I think what is important. And is going to factor more is the position of labor and the fact that India is also trying to maximize its demographic, dividend.

It's happening at a time when the rest of the world is getting older and it's getting not as skilled as India is. And that is a regional competitiveness edge also that India can offer compared to, you know, say other players in Asia Pacific. So they do wanna move up the value chain. There are, dependencies on either side of the value chain, but that's absolutely the gameplay here.

Andy Critchlow: Gauri, if I can come to you now, on this question. You know, we caught up at the beginning of the year at India Energy Week. I was blown away, at the, the scale of India Energy Week, actually, and the level of participation and the, the, [00:08:00] the caliber of international policy maker that attended that event.

You know, how key is it for, for, you know, the, this engagement piece for India when, you know, seeking to diversify its economy and, and be adaptive to this world around it.

Gauri Jauhar: Absolutely. First of all, again, delighted to be here on this podcast, with my, colleagues, Atul and Deepa and yourself. I think, it's, you, you know, in this new world where, new

partnerships are being looked at. I think we've seen some news come out last week as well, in terms of, new geopolitical reordering, which of course, Deepak can comment a lot more on. But I think as it affects, the economy and the energy picture, what we see is that, there is a lot of.

While India looks outwards, India still retains that inward focus of, you know, looking at what more deregulation needs to happen. We saw deregulation measures, [00:09:00] which are, which are covered in our macro article in the, in our journal, which. Point towards ease of doing business. So it's important to watch out for that.

Deepa earlier mentioned about the GST rationalization that happened last, week as well, which was announced. So I think what we are seeing is a concerted effort by the government to debottleneck the economy, the domestic economy more, because it's, it's what the government still can retain more control over.

We've seen it and we've discussed about it even in our earlier, you know. Chapters in our earlier journals wherein. We talked about, the importance of schemes like Atmanirbhar Bharat, which is, you know, make, sort of making India, making India resilient, making India self-sufficient. The production linked incentive schemes, which, you know, cut across, more than a dozen sectors, including electronics, including advanced cell chemistries, including solar pv [00:10:00] manufacturing.

So I think there's a concerted effort cross sector. To unleash manufacturing. It is tough though. There has been this forever target of 25%, of gross value added of GDP to be coming from manufacturing. And it's, it's tough to reach that target because we are a services led economy. That's by our very nature.

And it points to the big, you know, demographic dividend, the, the talent pool of engineering, talent also that sits in India. So I think it's, it's again, you know what Deepa talked about earlier about balance? I think India's, definitely, making sure that the domestic houses in order so that all reforms that are required are at least looked into and, and hopefully taken, or are able to be taken.

If, if, if you will.

Andy Critchlow: So you alluded there to, you know, some of the, your current news that we see. Obviously India is a key member [00:11:00] of the, the, the bricks. Partnership of Nations, geopolitics for India is a key, element to this story, and I think that it's fair to say India plays a, you know, a, a, a a very kind of smart role globally in, in terms of being in the middle.

It's a bridge almost between, you know, two, I won't say opposing forces, but certainly different ideological views on the world and economics and, and, and politics. How do you see that evolving deeper and, and how, you know, challenging is it for India to kind of maintain that, that central position really.

Deepa Kumar: You know, I think, Andy, this is a good time to look back at history.

This is, this is not unique. This is one of the reasons that India chooses to be a bridge power, as we called it, even in a couple of previous editions of India forward. It is very much the strategy, it is not the, it is not the backup strategy. It's absolutely the forefront. [00:12:00] You know, to use a cricket reference, it's the one that India likes to play on the front foot, is that it wants to be the bridge power between advanced economies, emerging economies, countries that have different political alliances, political sort of systems that work at play, and see how to leverage all of those together for India's benefit.

So this is the reason why India has a policy of strategic autonomy, which is coming to play here. There's absolutely nothing to suggest that there is a one side preference. Like, you know, we mentioned BRICS. BRICS is an important forum for India. The quad is an equally important forum for India. They would not find themselves in a position where they have to pick either or.

They would like to work with as many partners as possible, as India calls it, multi alignment and see how that can be leveraged to the benefit of some of these interests that India has. So when it comes to doing trade, when it comes to doing business, they would like to do business with everyone when it comes to averting security risks, because averting security risks is actually a big part of India's foreign policy strategy.

[00:13:00] That is also something that they'd like to do both in a near context, which is in India's neighborhood, and in a further context as that. So we're going to see more of what is on display right now, which is, you know, actually a sort of, demonstration of India's strategic autonomy in play. And, and not less of it.

It's, it's unlikely that we move away from this. We'd only gonna move closer towards this. And we have a framework called like India's concentric circles, which is something that we've worked out within, within, you know, the country risk as team as well. And it shows that actually within India's first circle.

Our countries of different political strategies and different ends of the economic models as well. Because within India, if you look at different states of India, actually, there are different economic models and it's important to make all of those work together towards this kind of goal that India has set for itself, both as a geopolitical powerhouse and an economic powerhouse.

Andy Critchlow: So to say, I mean, that segues nicely that point to, the question around energy transition. And I think overall [00:14:00] just the importance of energy security for, for India, you know, it was a key theme of, India Energy Week and you know, from my own perspective as a reporter, when I was based in the Middle East.

Something like 20 years ago. You know, I could see then the level of, of engagement that the Indian government gave, you know, some of its major partners in the Middle East in terms of, you know, that supply consumer relationship. Atul I'm gonna come to you on this. You know, you are an internationally renowned thought leader on the issue of not just energy transition, but also energy, security. I mean, how does all this translate to, you know, in these policies around, you know, diversifying each energy supply mix, energy security, and, and guaranteeing that it's got these, you know, these key commodity building blocks for the future.

Atul Arya: Yeah, so I think a couple of things we should, remember.

One is that for India, as at the, at the government level, energy security is paramount. You know, access to reliable and [00:15:00] secure energy and affordable energy. Many people, you know, hundreds of millions of people, are very poor and they can only afford a little bit of energy. So that's the number one priority for the government of India.

At the same time. You know, the environmental issues, particularly local air quality is also very important. That's why a number of things have been done over the years. For example, to move from diesel and petrol to CNG, compressed natural gas as a means to fuel transportation, reducing smog and, and, emissions.

But provision of secure energy is paramount, and, and that's what we are seeing. The, the strategy of getting, you know, some of the oil supplies or more of the oil supplies now, for example, from Russia, which were encouraged by, the, the US and other global powers to balance the global market, as you know well.

So beyond that, you know, India has a lot of domestic resources, coal and renewable resources. And what I see happening, you know, the term I coined a few years back energy edition. But we are seeing [00:16:00] now both the energy edition, more energy being used, but also energy transition. We are seeing significant growth in, for example, in renewables and other cleaner sources of energy, biofuels, hydrogen, all of these things are coming up.

So a very balanced view, but at the same time, making sure there is provision of. Clean and, you know, increasingly clean and secure energy. But perhaps Gauri, you can expand on some of the things happening on the ground on, on this front.

Gauri Jauhar: Sure. Atul. I mean, absolutely. I, I think what you point on energy security is paramount.

And as the times we're in definitely show that, that focus of the government. And I think I'd also, you know, looking at the energy transition, I think India always. Took a little more balanced approach, its target of 2070. Net zero showed it. I think when India came out with that target, there were a lot of questions like, why 2070 and why not 2050?

And today we're in a world which is anyways questioning 2050 net zero and 1.5. [00:17:00] so I think India's path seems more considered, um. Connect the dots. Back to your earlier question though, Andy, which was on the domestic focus. What we have seen in energy, is also new missions being announced. One new mission, which we talk about in our, journal is the mission on nuclear, where there's a target of a hundred gigawatts of nuclear from nine gigawatts currently, by 2047.

And, we also see from Atul's point on the energy security side, a new mission, on Deepwater. So to really pull out all the plugs on at the basin levels to make sure exploration is complete in the frontier, deepwater basins. So we see these two missions being announced in quick succession in the last couple of months.

One on nuclear and one on the deep water mission and the deep water mission one was just announced, during India's Independence Day. So [00:18:00] that's why I think there is a balanced approach. But as Atul said, energy security is paramount. If the lights are out, they're out. So we do need energy security, and energy addition as Atul mentioned, you know, at, at the same time we find measures to transition.

And I think, I think the one thing I would add is that for India, when we talk about energy transition. Air pollution is more the here and now of a climate change issue than, than, than it's just meeting a net zero target.

Andy Critchlow: One of the most eye-catching parts of the report. Is this section around nuclear power.

And you know, I, I think, you know, it's fascinating when you position that in, in, you know, I wouldn't call it a rush to nuclear power globally, but you know, it, it, we are seeing a resurgence of this. I mean, what challenges do you think India faces in terms of, you know, building scale in that, that that nuclear space going forward?

Gauri Jauhar: So I think the main challenge is on [00:19:00] liabilities. What is the capping of liabilities? What is the extent of liabilities? And there are two key acts, which will have to be, considered very carefully, both in the context of the larger US India relationship, to access technologies, but also in the context of, private sector participation. Because that,

will need to be encouraged to get those technologies, to enable this a hundred gigawatt target. And, and that is going to be tough. And I think the environment now has made it tougher.

Andy Critchlow: I mean, a hundred gigawatts as well. I mean, can, can we frame that in the global context? I mean, that's gotta be one of the biggest nuclear programs in the world, I would imagine,

currently, right?

Atul Arya: Yeah, it is, it is very large indeed. You know, and actually, you know, if you look at the world, nuclear associations kind of, roadmap for the future of nuclear, India is one of the top 10 countries in that, you know, you know, China of course still has a lot of [00:20:00] nuclear and still coming up with nuclear.

But India is also, people forget that India has established nuclear power generation program already, you know, existing for, for decades. And I think, but it slowed down, you know, for various reasons like. Lack of access to enriched fuel and so on. But now the, the opportunity is there. I think the one thing Gauri mentioned is the involvement of the private sector, which has been off the books, but now they, they can, they can play a very important role and once these bills are passed in the parliament, then I think there'll be.

We see a big growth, from our S&P perspective, growth in the nuclear activity in India. They need to build supply chain as well, Andy, in terms of what some of the things, you know, they'll need capability, they'll need, you know, you know, supply chain. Yeah, exactly. Yeah.

Andy Critchlow: Yeah, absolutely. I mean, on that theme around the industrial ecosystem that you need to build up for these.

Very complex industries. I think ship building is another area in the report that was focused on, which I think is fascinating. A colleague of [00:21:00] ours pointed out to me recently actually that, that I think something like over half the world's, seafarers are of, you know, Indian national nationality, which is, you know, just at the very basics, it gives you a sense of how important maritime industries are for, for India and the Indian economy.

But it's, it's not just actually, you know, serving seafarers. It's it's actual ship building. Can you give us a little bit more insights around that Gauri?

Gauri Jauhar: So I think currently, India sits, in the center of servicing smaller, medium you know, services around shipbuilding. But there's clearly an ambition right now.

It's, it's, very insignificant. But we do see an impetus going forward. We explore it in much detail in our, journal and I think, where we, there are challenges, of course, in terms of a lot of regulatory, bottlenecks that would still be un un you know, un unleashed. So if [00:22:00] those can be achieved, but, but you know, we compare it to, other countries in the neighborhood like South Korea and, you know, where this has been.

There's been a longer tradition of shipbuilding. You know, India does have some distance to go.

Atul Arya: Yeah. Lemme very briefly add, Andy you know, India is currently 1% of the global shipbuilding market and India's goal, by 2047. And by the way, we make a reference to 2047. Throughout the journal and there is a very significant importance to that because that'll be the hundred a year of India's independence, you know, became independent in 1947.

So it it, the goal is to become one of the top five. So from 1% to top five. I mean, you know, that's a huge ambition. And, and, and the shift will be from more kind of. Defense relationship building to more civilian merchant, you know, tankers, LNG carriers and so on. So it's a massive ambition. One great thing about India, as we know from the geography is it has a massive coastline.

So, you know, it's sort of a natural thing that you use the power of [00:23:00] sea. But it has not, it has been very under leverage. And this is. This is, again, going back to what Depa was saying about the demographic dividend, you know, if they can unleash this, and that's why we talk about in our article, there could be huge gains in terms of employment at the high, high quality, you know, high value employment in the ship building sector.

So, big ambition, time will tell.

Deepa Kumar: Yeah. May I quickly add a point, Andy? I mean, of course. To compliment what Arthur is saying, that 270 degrees of, India's coastline is, is, is, you know, waiting to be maximized. But the states that dot the coastline are also among India's fastest and most important growing states.

So you need to. Sort of integrate them into the global trade ecosystem a lot more strongly. If you want, you know, tying back to that trade piece, which we're saying, which is that India is trying to become a bigger trading economy in the world. Not just that if, if you just look at even some of the overlapping of strategic interests that has happened where, you know, shipping lines are more vulnerable to geopolitical risks now. [00:24:00] You need Indian interests to be out there more upfront and center. And less dependent on other economies, or other sort of, modes of trade. And it's something we said in the previous journal, that actually Indian trade is more than 90% seaborne already. So why not do it on Indian ships when you can.

Andy Critchlow: Yeah, it's, it, it, it makes good strategic sense from a, an industrial standpoint. And you see this in so many other major global economies. I mean, South Korea is a good example. I think one of the things that we haven't talked about though, which we need to delve into because it's really what glues all this together, is finance.

And you know, one of the really interesting things, things that's come out of the report is, is the potential growth of, of, of private credit markets in, in India and how, you know, as well, global investors, will play an important role there. Deepa, do you just wanna unpack that for us a little bit?

Deepa Kumar: Absolutely Andy, and, and I think it ties into, again, some of the themes, right? Like Gauri and I like saying that our journal is effectively connective tissues speaking to each other throughout. And if there's [00:25:00] anything that Atul, Gauri, and I have said so far is that India loves options. They think the more there are options on the table, the better for India to meet a lot of its goals that it has across the spectrum.

And private credit is exactly that. So it is, it is an, as our authors to credit them, right? Like they speak of it, that has gone from a young upstart to a thriving asset class in literally within a decade. And it's there to see because actually what started and what is, you know, we highlight in the paper is, is private credit grew because it's financing that has grown in sectors that banks don't.

Usually go to, or there are regulations around where banking can sort of, you know, speak to. And so some of the sectors that have come up, infrastructure, real estate, renewable energy, and traditional energy are actually some of the biggest beneficiaries of private credit in India today. And it's likely to grow in those sectors, in those spaces as well.

Mumbai International Airport is a great example of, you know, private credit coming to sort of shore up a very big and strategic infrastructure project. What is important though, and something that [00:26:00] we're watching out for is the private credit market in India has only grown during an up cycle. We don't know how it performs during a down cycle, so that is something to watch out for.

And second is, it's a bit riskier than traditional lending, especially with the kind of guarantees that comes with banks. So it's, it's something that investors will be looking out for. But yeah, debt issuance last year, as we know of was maybe about 4%. We're looking at that going, sorry, at about 10 billion and at 4%.

We're looking at that significantly increasing in the coming years, both because of global investors and domestic investors.

Andy Critchlow: And that need for infrastructure. I mean, you know, it's, it's, it's fascinating talking to you on the podcast here because we can hear the hustle and bustle in the background. There in India, which is, you know, what, what, you know, we all, you know, I think as an external, you know, as a journalist, as an external viewer of what's happening in India, you know, you get that sense on the ground, the hustle, the bustle, the busyness, the rapid growth.

But [00:27:00] what you know is, is, I won't say lagging behind, but is what's racing to catch up is, is the infrastructure and. You know, how big a challenge is that when you look out to and fascinated at Al's point there that, you know, you're trying to forecast out to, to 2047, that historic, centenary of independence.

How, how does that, how does that infrastructure piece factor into that?

Deepa Kumar: I mean, the infrastructure piece is actually front and center, so yes, the sounds around me are all sounds of, India growing and India thriving. 2047 is absolutely important because. To commemorate the anniversary of the hundredth independence.

The Indian government has actually said that as the target for when India should quote unquote be an advanced economy or a developed economy, depending on how one defines it. So everything that we've seen in government financing, especially in capital expenditure this year and this year has been used from a capital expenditure front is all going into infrastructure projects.

I mean, Gauri Atul and I have grown up and seen Mumbai. You [00:28:00] know, different stages and mobile looks very different now than it did even say five years ago. And the push there is absolutely on public infrastructure, private infrastructure, but one that can accommodate a growing economy. The question though, and we do raise that in in the macro pieces, is how do you do it sustainably?

So in a way that, you know, speaks to some of the other risks that Gauri and Atul have alluded to, which is balancing energy security transition and climate change. And how do you do it in an inclusive manner? Because as much as there is a part of India that keeps growing, there is a part of India that's yet to grow, and that does need a lot of support that comes from government and other industries. So yes, infrastructure is, you know, galvanizing that India that wants to become an advanced economy by 2047, but it needs to be done sustainably and inclusive. Right now, the government is the biggest player, but hopefully, you know, as we say in private credit, debt and equity and financing gets opened even for the private sector.

Andy Critchlow: Another really interesting part [00:29:00] of this report is the push into data centers and how, you know, that's gonna be a key part of, of India building, you know, its presence as a major force in Southeast Asia. And I, you know, I find that, you know, fascinating in the global context because we're now talking about, you know, certain countries in the world in the sense of data center superpowers.

You know, I think there was a fantastic article I read recently about the United Remits in Saudi Arabia and how they're, you know, using their huge investments into AI and, and the creation of data centers to build, you know, more influence internationally and, and, you know, are you seeing a similar trend in, in, in India, Gauri with.

This push into the data center market? And what are the challenges around that? I mean, I'm guessing energy is a big part of it.

Gauri Jauhar: Absolutely. Energy is an important part of it. In fact, one thing we point out in our article is that energy expenses are about 65% of the overall operating expenses of a data center.

And in the next, two years, we do see India becoming the [00:30:00] second largest market for electricity demand linked to data centers. And what we are seeing is, you know, another topic which we talk a lot about is this, sort of federal, state, federal interactions and, you know, I think it's very close to Deepa and Atul's heart as well talking about how the states interact.

And I think where that's where we are seeing states jostling with each other to, incentivize data center investments in. Through giving, certain incentives, cross subsidy, waivers, you know, single window clearances, putting, the data center load in a category such that it attracts either a lesser tariff in certain states like Maharashtra, or linking, a lower tariff to a higher renewable energy usage like in Karnataka.

So, so we are seeing this. You know, federal federalism, competitive federalism also playing [00:31:00] out, in the data center picture, as well.

Andy Critchlow: So to wrap up, huge opportunity. You know, I get a sense of this sort of common wheel approach to economic growth that is being deployed in India. You know, I think it's a great kind of sector to finish on how.

We started talking about provision for energy and energy security. Obviously nuclear is a part of that. And then you see the outcome. It's all about powering manufacturing, powering new industries like ship building, but also data centers, which is gonna be a huge driver for global growth in the next 20, 30, 40 years and beyond.

I guess for our, our listeners, looking forward, what should they be watching for in the midst of all these shifting horizons in terms of India and and globally? Deepa I am gonna come to you first on that one.

Deepa Kumar: I think, I think

Andy Critchlow: no pressure.

Deepa Kumar: Slightly medium term view, Andy, not the, not the short term view, but I think for me right, is, is always how India maximizes its demographic dividend.

The, the biggest strength [00:32:00] of India or, or, you know, something that, that we'd have to watch for is how it's labor force. Gets utilized, how its people get applied, how its people are supported to become bigger consumers, bigger parts of the economy, so on and so forth. So I would think policies that are linked to either deregulation of labor, policies that allow for, you know, India attracting foreign investment on the bank of this point, that it's labor forces more regionally competitive.

How India inculcates more women into the workforce. Looking at that as a factor is, is something that, you know, is most important and, and something that we do mention in the journal as well. But of course lastly, and, and because it's something that I speak to quite common is, is the geopolitical space is, I would say that this is India strategy where just after a while, seeing strategic autonomy play out in real time.

So definitely wanna watch out for that. We probably see more of it and not less of it.

Andy Critchlow: So maximizing India's demographic advantages for global growth. Very interesting. [00:33:00] Gauri, what would be your take on this?

Gauri Jauhar: So I think, the linkage between economic and energy demand growth. So, I think it's important to see that six and half percent is at least maintained.

And if, if the more the economy gets debottlenecked, if higher growth rates are, there's always this. The potential growth rate is actually somewhere in the eight to 10% range, and we have seen some years of it in the two thousands. So, so can we again reach there or not? I think that's a key test. And when, I think in our modeling of scenarios, what we do see is.

That no matter which scenario you take, there's a certain point of inflection in India happens around 2035, where per capita income really starts rising. And, and one number to watch for is the $10,000 per capita income mark. The moment countries in the World Bank classification meet that, that's when points of inflection on energy demand also are typically seen in our modeling, [00:34:00] on, so on India.

So that would be...

Andy Critchlow: How are we away from that 10,000 per capita income level?

Gauri Jauhar: Well, our modeling shows that towards, closer to 2040, the late 2030s, 2040s, I mean, it can move every year a little bit, but it, it's closer towards 2040, the end, the end of the

Andy Critchlow: That brings us, that brings us very, I mean you could have scripted this, Gauri because it brings us very well to, our final word, Atul.

It goes to you, you mentioned this great, point around 2047 being a historical moment, for India. And, you know, that kind of is pretty close to that sort of timeline for hitting, hitting that, key sort of metric, $10,000 per capita income. You know, what, what's your overall outlook in the context of, of this and the insights that are coming out of the, India forward report?

Atul Arya: Thank you, Andy. The, first thing I would say is to, our [00:35:00] listeners that please, look at the report, you know, download it. It's all available electronically on the S&P Global. Look Forward Council website and a lot of great, breadth and depth of, interesting content and new ideas for our, our companies and listeners to, to think about.

I think what I will be watching for is can India, I mean, I always feel that India has so much potential. There's so many advantages, right? Very educated, middle class, good fluency in English, which is the global language of commerce, entrepreneurial culture. I mean, many Indians outside of India thriving in, in very senior positions in in, in private sector and governments and so on.

So how do you bring that potential? Back to India and make India also a, a, a real leader. It's already is, but can it be a, a global player? I, I think the, the geopolitical angle, in the very short term, what we're seeing today is going to be a challenge to navigate. But this is not the first time India's had to [00:36:00] navigate to geopolitical challenges.

So I think it'll come true. And what I, what. Hope is that, you know, there is this, phrase in, in Hindi called Jugar, which is kind of innovation, but innovation in like a bootstrap innovation. And Indians are very good at that. So I, I hope that that bootstrap innovation will really propel the country in, in all the multiple dimensions.

We talk about in our, India forward, you know. What is the India forward, new horizons or, or, you know.

Gauri Jauhar: Shifting horizons.

Atul Arya: Shifting horizons. Thank you. Thank you. Deepa. Shifting horizons, edition.

Andy Critchlow: That's a great, point to, to finish on, Atul. You know, the spirits of innovation, and again, it, this one theme that cuts through all of this conversation, which has been absolutely fascinating is, is the human capital and, and you know, the intrinsic innovation of, you know, the people of India and, and you know, which is.

From my personal, [00:37:00] engagements as a journalist over the years, a fascinating country always to visit. I'm very pleased you've let me, you've, you've let me off the hook all of you very well. As an Englishman, no one mentioned the cricket, final test test match in, in, in England this summer. A fantastic sport in a little bit difficult to watch, obviously from my perspective.

Um. I, I, I would just like to thank you all as our Yes. Yes. I'd just like to thank you all as our guests. Gauri Jauhar, executive Director of Consulting for Energy Transition at S&P Global. Deepa Kumar, head of Asia Pacific Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence and Atul Arya, a Chief Energy Strategist at S&P Global Commodity Insights.

As Atul mentioned, if you wanna download the look forward, report, the India Forward report, shifting Horizons, go to our website at www.spglobal.com. Look for The Look Forward Council, tab. You'll be able to [00:38:00] find information on the report and much more resources around what we're doing, in the space of global economics and forecasting what the world has in store for us in the future.

Thank you all and, remember to download, this episode and many other episodes that we are gonna produce on the Apple Podcast store or Spotify or via YouTube. Thanks very much.