Daily Update — May 21, 2026
Asia's Energy Transformation; Costs of the Middle East Conflict; and Rare Earth Supply Concerns
Today is Thursday, May 21, 2026, and here’s your curated selection of Essential Intelligence on global markets from S&P Global. Subscribe to be notified of each new Daily Update.
Energy Expansion
Listen: How the war in Iran is accelerating Asia's energy transformation
In this episode of the “Energy Evolution” podcast, host Eklavya Gupte explored how the Middle East war has exposed Asia's deep reliance on fossil fuels and accelerated the region's energy transition. Ruchira Singh, energy transition editor at Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, spoke with Nobuo Tanaka, chair of the steering committee at the Innovation for Cool Earth Forum, about the emerging dynamics between petrostates and electrostates, as well as Asia’s energy future.
Echoing the 1970s oil shocks that led to the LNG market, Tanaka believes that the current crisis will spark a major shift, making renewables mainstream and fast-tracking Asia's electrification. From accelerating electric vehicle adoption to expanding low-carbon hydrogen trade and strengthening regional collaboration, Asia is poised to respond with a decisive shift toward cleaner, more resilient energy systems, Tanaka said.
Economy
The mounting economic costs of the Middle East conflict
S&P Global Ratings revised its inflation forecasts based on higher-for-longer energy prices, which will sustain price pressures and constrain economic growth. Currently, it is uncertain whether an agreement could soon be reached to end the US-Israel war with Iran. Even if a deal is struck soon and holds, S&P Global Energy’s experts expect it will take months for oil production and supply to start normalizing. What a new normal would look like for shipping security and costs in the Strait of Hormuz is also unclear.
The price of Dated Brent crude is now expected to be above $100/barrel through the remainder of 2026. S&P Global Energy’s base case is predicated on the Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively closed through May, with flows expected to recover from June. In line with a delayed reopening and recovery in oil production, Dated Brent was forecast to end this year well above the US$72/b projected in S&P Global Energy’s April forecast round. Elevated crude prices are expected to persist through next year, resulting in annual average Dated Brent prices that are 100% and 60% higher in 2026 and 2027, respectively, than assumed in S&P Global Energy’s pre-conflict forecast in February.
Global economic outlook: May 2026
Global Trade
US says China agreed to address rare earth supply concerns
According to the White House statement outlining agreements reached during the May 14–15 summit in Beijing between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, China agreed to address US concerns over supply chain shortages “related to rare earths and other critical minerals, including yttrium, scandium, neodymium, and indium."
The White House also said that China would address US concerns regarding prohibitions or restrictions on the sale of rare earth production and processing equipment and technologies. Rare earths were not mentioned in China's summary of the summit.
In case you missed it
- UK life insurers' continued use of funded reinsurance is at risk as the country's financial regulator plans to more than double capital requirements for the average funded reinsurance transaction.
- India's decision to raise fuel prices for the first time in four years is unlikely to dent domestic demand for gasoline and diesel. Still, refiners could further increase pump prices if global crude oil prices remain elevated.
- The US-China summit ended with a plan to establish trade and investment boards, goods-purchasing agreements and an invitation for Chinese President Xi Jinping to visit Washington in September.
Upcoming events
- 170 GW by 2030? How BESS Unlocks Data Center Expansion | May 26 (Webinar)
- Stiffening Headwinds To Test The Resilience Of Asian Automakers | May 28 (Webinar)
- AI for IR: Practical Applications Today, Strategic Value Tomorrow | June 2 (Webinar)
The next edition of the Daily Update will publish Tuesday, May 26.