Daily Update — July 10, 2025
Japan’s Carbon Credits; Investors Back AI Firms; and Red Sea Shipping Disruptions
Today is Thursday, July 10, 2025, and here’s your curated selection of Essential Intelligence on global markets from S&P Global. Subscribe to be notified of each new Daily Update.
Energy Transition & Sustainability
Japan mulls barring international VCM credits before GX-ETS launch; move to be bullish for domestic credits
Japan is considering revoking the eligibility of international CO2 removal credits as its emissions trading system, GX-ETS, gears up for its mandatory emissions reporting phase in 2026. The country is opting to only utilize voluntary carbon market (VCM) credits from domestic programs such as the J-Credit Scheme or the Joint Crediting Mechanism, according to market participants.
Following a governmental update to the Green Transformation law on May 28, the GX-ETS is set to transition from its voluntary trial phase to the first phase starting in fiscal 2026–27, mandating participation in the domestic emissions trading system for facilities emitting more than 100,000 metric tons per year of CO2.
Artificial Intelligence
When Headcount Counts How Investors are Pricing Scale and Story
While headlines fixate on AI replacing workforces, investors are betting big on the people building and using the technology. Venture capital and corporate buyers are backing late-stage AI firms at steep premiums. This research introduces a new framework for separating deal value into three components: industry enthusiasm, workforce scale and firm-specific differentiation. By tracking how these drivers have evolved over time, the analysis reveals shifting investor priorities, growing premiums for thematic exposure and early signals of momentum embedded in deal value outliers.
Key findings highlight the robust momentum within the AI sector, with companies attracting nearly $95 billion in 2024 — an 89% year-over-year increase — as investors seek exposure to this maturing industry. AI firms exceeding valuation expectations based on headcount and industry are more likely to secure additional funding within a year and grow their workforce four times faster than their peers. This data-driven insight can be explored further through our Headcount Analytics, Rounds of Funding and Company Intelligence datasets, which provide unparalleled accuracy in evaluating investment opportunities.
Global Trade
Red Sea disruptions reshaping global bunker demand as ships navigate longer routes
Global shipping markets significantly shifted last year as escalating maritime security threats in the Red Sea forced ships to reroute, adding days to voyage times and reshaping bunker fuel demand across key alternate ports. This disruption has continued in 2025, leading many shipping companies to bypass the Suez Canal route and increasing pressure on infrastructure at ports in the Mediterranean, East Africa, South Africa and Indian Ocean.
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East — notably Houthi attacks on commercial ships in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the broader Red Sea — has added weeks to voyages between Europe and Asia, affecting supply chains and marine fuel logistics.
In case you missed it
- BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) leaders called for energy market stability and criticized tariffs, sanctions and carbon border adjustment mechanisms in a joint statement.
- Real estate M&A activity involving publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts remained low in the first half, with only two announced deals.
- The 211 banks in an S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis had a median total return of 4.2% in June, trailing the S&P 500's 5.1% return.
Upcoming events
- Navigating Change: The Critical Role of Sustainability in the Financial Function | July 15 (New York)
- Climate Stress Testing: Adapting to Evolving UK & EU Regulations | July 16 (Webinar)
- Reshaping the Rules: Understanding the NAIC’s Proposed Investment Framework Overhaul | July 17 (Webinar)