Daily Update — Decemeber 19, 2025
European Biodiesel Dynamics; Light-vehicle Production Forecast; and Leveraged Finance, CLO Trends
Today is Friday, December 19, 2025, and here's your curated selection of Essential Intelligence on global markets from S&P Global. Subscribe to be notified of each new Daily Update.
Energy Transition & Sustainability
COMMODITIES 2026: European biodiesel market to be shaped by regulatory landscape, feedstock dynamics
The European biodiesel market is closely monitoring the rollout of the EU's Renewable Energy Directive III, especially as Germany and the Netherlands plan to end double-counting incentives for advanced biofuels in 2026. This shift could boost demand for first-generation biodiesel, sources told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy.
The elimination of double-counting also creates a bullish outlook for renewable diesel in 2026. Its substitute, used cooking oil methyl ester, is expected to maintain its appeal as a cost-effective alternative amid elevated costs for hydrotreated vegetable oil and tighter regulations.
With EU member states setting more ambitious greenhouse gas reduction targets, advanced feedstocks such as food waste oil, tall oil and soapstock acid oil are gaining attention. When selecting feedstocks, market participants must weigh GHG savings against economic considerations.
Automotives
December 2025 Light Vehicle Production Forecast
As 2025 ends, the global auto industry continues to navigate evolving US trade policies and regional market conditions. While most tariff expectations remain unchanged, automakers are distributing costs worldwide and refining their product portfolios to minimize consumer price increases. US-based manufacturers in particular benefit from relaxed emissions standards and the lack of a need for regulatory credit purchases, which supports more stable pricing.
The December forecast update reflects generally positive changes, with significant upgrades in Greater China due to robust exports and in North America due to strong demand. Regional production outlooks vary. Overall, export momentum, policy changes and inventory management are the key factors influencing forecasts for 2026.
Private Markets
Listen: Trends in European Leveraged Finance and Private Credit
What's driving European leveraged finance and collateralized loan obligation (CLO) markets as we head into 2026? In this year-end episode of the "Leveraged Finance & CLOs Uncovered" podcast, S&P Global Ratings' Marta Stojanova joined hosts Hina Shoeb and Sandeep Chana to discuss the latest market developments.
Tune in to explore major themes shaping the market, including:
- Leveraged loan issuance of nearly $250 billion in 2025
- Key trends in credit estimates
- Changes in the average EBITDA size of issuers
- What these developments mean for midmarket CLOs in 2026
The podcast delivers advanced insights into corporate credits, CLOs and leveraged finance transactions, focusing on notable features observed in corporate credits and the sectors to which CLOs are exposed. For more episodes of the podcast, click here.
In case you missed it
- Driven by government initiatives, private equity and venture capital investments in the Middle East during the first 11 months of 2025 far surpassed the amount recorded for full year 2024.
- The National Energy Assistance Directors Association warned that 16% of US households are behind on their electricity bills — a figure expected to rise this winter. Up to 4 million families could face power shut-offs as energy prices climb and other affordability challenges persist, the organization said.
- The steady balance of low hiring and firing rates in the US labor market in 2025 faces uncertainty as recent layoff announcements and key employment indicators signal conflicting views on job trends.
Upcoming events
- 2026 U.S. Public Finance Outlook Series | January 7–29 (Webinar)
- Structured Finance U.S. and Canada 2026 Outlook | January 15 (Webinar)
- S&P Global Mobility New Year’s Briefing 2026 | January 22 (Frankfurt, Germany)
The next edition of the Daily Update will be published Tuesday, January 6.
