18 November 2025
November 2025 Light Vehicle Production Forecast
By Mike Wall
Article Summary
S&P Global Mobility provides monthly updates to our global light vehicle production forecast, offering timely insights into global auto production trends.
See previous months’ forecasts in our LinkedIn newsletter.
Each month, we leverage global light vehicle production actuals, registration data, and sales data to provide the most up-to-date, short-term production forecast available.
Here's a closer look at global production data by region and our updated November production forecast.
Top takeaways for the month
The global light vehicle production outlook remains influenced by the evolving US trade environment and regional dynamics. While automakers are adeptly managing costs to mitigate tariff impacts, consumers have not experienced significant price increases as of yet. However, the cost implications of some of the more severe tariff impacts will still likely prove impactful to consumer demand and resulting production as we look to next year.
The upcoming USMCA review in mid-2026 will be crucial for understanding tariff implications with key trading partners. The November forecast update indicates modest revisions, with notable improvements in Greater China’s production outlook due to strong vehicle sales and exports.
November 2025 Light Vehicle Production Forecast
Regional highlights
Europe: The light vehicle production outlook for Europe has been increased by 20,000 units for 2025 and 21,000 units for 2026, despite a reduction of 80,000 units for 2027. This adjustment is primarily driven by stronger production results from Volkswagen and Stellantis, although concerns around the Nexperia situation will continue to be monitored. The production outlook remains roughly flat year-over-year for 2026, with potential upside depending on upcoming EU commission announcements.
Greater China: The forecast for Greater China's light vehicle production has been materially upgraded by 387,000 units for 2025 and 191,000 units for 2026. The market continues to experience steady production growth, bolstered by strong export activities and government subsidies. With over 55% of October's passenger vehicle output being NEV, the outlook remains positive, although competitive pressures and economic uncertainties persist.
Japan/Korea: Japan's light vehicle production outlook was increased by 12,000 units for 2025 and 37,000 units for 2026, largely due to Toyota's steady production plans. South Korea also saw an upgrade, with a 19,000-unit increase for 2025 driven by stronger production results. The long-term outlook for both countries remains stable, with no significant changes anticipated beyond the immediate forecast period.
North America: The North American light vehicle production outlook has been raised by 22,000 units for 2025 and 48,000 units for 2026, despite challenges from supply chain issues. Notably, production at GM and Stellantis has been revised higher, while the outlook for Ford's F-Series has faced some downward adjustments due to aluminum shortages arising from a recent supplier plant fire. Recovery of production losses is expected in 2026, signaling a gradual improvement.
South America: The production outlook for South America has seen a slight reduction of 9,000 units for 2025 and 22,000 units for 2026, primarily due to declining production in Argentina and Brazil. The cautious outlook reflects weaker sales and an increase in imports. Overall, the region faces challenges in maintaining production levels amid changing market dynamics.
South Asia: The South Asia production forecast has been adjusted with an increase of 27,000 units for 2025, but a reduction of 42,000 units for 2026. While the ASEAN market shows near-term resilience, deeper cuts are expected for 2026 and 2027 due to ongoing economic challenges. India's production outlook remains positive in the near term, supported by recent GST reductions which are anticipated to boost vehicle sales.
Our light vehicle production forecast is updated monthly and covers 99% of global light vehicle production. Download a preview to see what we offer.
This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.
Content Type
Newsletter
Series
Light Vehicle Production Forecast
S&P Global Mobility experts provide guidance on the ramification of new government policies, including tariffs, for the automotive industry