17 June 2025
June 2025 Light Vehicle Production Forecast
By Mike Wall
Article Summary
S&P Global Mobility provides monthly updates to our global light vehicle production forecast, offering timely insights into global auto production trends.
See previous months’ forecasts in our LinkedIn newsletter.
Each month, we leverage global light vehicle production actuals, registration data, and sales data to provide the most up-to-date, short-term production forecast available.
Here's a closer look at global production data by region and our updated April production forecast.
Top Takeaways for the Month
The global auto industry is navigating significant changes due to ongoing US tariff activities, with expectations adjusted for a general stepdown in baseline tariffs across trading partners starting in 2026.
The June 2025 vehicle production forecast reflects a mix of notable upgrades and other increases, particularly in Greater China and North America, driven by strong vehicle sales and tariff policy adjustments favoring USMCA-compliant parts. Risks remain elevated for production disruptions linked to Chinese export restrictions on rare earth elements.
June 2025 Light Vehicle Production Forecast
Regional Highlights
Europe: The outlook for light vehicle production in Europe has increased by 18,000 units for 2025 driven by stronger-than-expected Q2 production results, with further adjustments for 2026 and 2027. Of note, a decline in demand anticipated for H2 2025 has tempered some of the overall upgrade for 2025. The positive revision for 2026 is attributed to expected reductions in US import tariffs on European autos.
Greater China: The light vehicle production outlook in Greater China has been upgraded by 355,000 units for 2025, supported by strong domestic demand and export recovery following trade negotiations. Despite stagnation in new-energy vehicle demand in Europe, significant growth has been observed in local brands targeting emerging markets. The outlook for 2026 and 2027 remains positive due to continued market development and subsidy extensions.
Japan/Korea: Production volumes for Japan have been upgraded by 27,000 units for 2025, reflecting improved domestic demand and exports. However, longer-term forecasts have been reduced due to production transfers to Mexico and project cancellations. South Korea’s production forecast for 2025 has increased by 22,000 units, primarily due to advance shipments before US tariffs took effect.
North America: The North American light vehicle production outlook has increased by 434,000 units for 2025, attributed to tariff improvements and a strong production cadence. This month, the light vehicle sales forecast for 2025 was also raised by 248,000 units. Continued monitoring of sourcing changes, including potential onshoring, is planned as the market evolves.
South America: The outlook for South America has seen a slight reduction of 5,000 units for 2025 but an increase of 16,000 units for 2026. Upgrades in Argentina, especially for pickups, have contributed to a marginal long-term increase in volumes.
South Asia: The production outlook for South Asia has increased by 58,000 units for 2025, mainly due to robust BEV production in Vietnam and a recovery in Thailand’s mid-size pickup exports. However, the outlook for 2026 and 2027 has been reduced, reflecting challenges such as domestic headwinds and global trade uncertainty. The situation in India remains stable, although some production has been disrupted due to rare earth element supply issues.
Our light vehicle production forecast is updated monthly and covers 99% of global light vehicle production. Download a preview to see what we offer.
This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.
Content Type
Newsletter
Series
Light Vehicle Production Forecast
S&P Global Mobility experts provide guidance on the ramification of new government policies, including tariffs, for the automotive industry