Trade disruptions stemming from the war in Ukraine, in addition to extreme heat in recent years, are contributing factors for current global food scarcity. The reduction in food output has led to rising food costs across the globe.
Government policies seeking to transition economies to net-zero emissions are likely to increase globally. These include carbon pricing regulations, one policy lever to achieve emissions abatement targets.
Renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and hydro) account for the majority of annual investments in power generation. Yet they still represented only 13% of global primary energy consumption in 2020, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights (Platts).
Companies and consumers are having to face surging prices for fuel, food, and other commodities as inflation rises to its highest level in decades.
As high inflation continues to affect economies worldwide, the global steel market is feeling the effects. Demand for the metal has dipped, and some countries—including China—are expecting potential output reductions.
Energy security has again risen to the top of Europe's priorities in the face of rising gas and energy prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the EU's pledge to reduce reliance on Russian gas.
The reduction of coal demand will be slow and uneven across regions. Currently, coal accounts for about 25% of primary energy globally (and about two-thirds of the power sector's generation), but is set to reduce to 21% by 2030 and trend down thereafter according to S&P Global Commodity Insights (Platts)' reference scenario.
In light of surging global gas prices, security of supply concerns, and a weakening economic outlook, prospects for gas demand growth are more uncertain but supported by strong demand in Asia-Pacific. Natural gas to meet incremental power generation needs may be the area where demand softens most.
As high inflation rates across the globe continue, many industries are having to face the likely scenario of stagflation—which would likely hit especially hard for those not fully recovered from COVID-19
Although demand for copper is high, in part due to its role in the energy transition, the potential for a copper shortage is drawing concerns about how to move forward.
Regulation is shaping up to be a defining feature of the crypto ecosystem over the next two years. The current market downturn and related collapse of some projects and crypto assets have prompted significant losses, exposed idiosyncratic risks and vulnerabilities within protocols, highlighted systemic concerns within the crypto landscape, and sharpened policymakers' awareness of the need to regulate the crypto and decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem.
Diversity, equity and inclusion are high on the agenda for many companies. More than a quarter of companies actively participating in the S&P Global Corporate Sustainability Assessment (CSA) 2021 identified diversity and/or inclusion among their top three material issues.
As one of the fastest growing economies in the world, India is looking to maintain its role as a rising economic superpower amid high global inflation and trade impacts from the war in Ukraine.
Global demand for coal is on the rise while prices for thermal coal and metallurgical coal have climbed dramatically over the last year. As some countries have ramped up coal production, others are looking for greener alternatives.
With supply chains suffering under the weight of war, pandemic, energy prices, inflation, and geopolitical stress, a fundamental realignment of global trade begins to take shape.
The COVID-19 lockdown in Shanghai is impacting China’s energy and commodity markets, along with the country’s overall economic growth. The lockdown also has the potential to extend global supply chain disruptions.
Without a quick end to the conflict on the horizon, the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine are being seen in equities, energy, global trade and commodities markets.
Mandatory climate disclosures are now on the horizon in the U.S. after the Securities and Exchange Commission unveiled a long-anticipated climate disclosure rulemaking proposal. The U.S. joins a growing number of countries requiring companies to report their climate-related risk.
As the war in Ukraine continues, many are turning to electric vehicles as a solution to price surges amid the rise in sanctions against Russia. This push for EVs, however, comes with its own set of challenges as metal prices skyrocket and battery supply chains face pressure from the invasion.
As the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues, the metals industry is feeling the effects. Prices for metals have risen sharply amid high demand and supply chain issues, along with imposed sanctions against Russia.
Jobs reports and daily headlines about the Great Resignation suggest that much of the U.S. workforce is on the move. Influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic and many other factors, people across the country have been reshaping their personal and professional lives over the last few years.
In Europe, market constraints and extreme weather events have caused gas and power prices to skyrocket, creating an energy crisis that has left the region’s energy and industrial industries concerned, especially with the nearing winter.
The technology sector has been riding high, buoyed by the increased demands created by pandemic restrictions and a search for yield on the part of investors. But technology companies confront a changed landscape in 2022 with higher volatility, increased government scrutiny, and ongoing supply chain constraints.
Once consigned to the dustbin of history, inflation roars back globally in the aftermath of the pandemic to challenge a nascent, but vulnerable recovery.
While many large companies set sustainability goals and published ESG-related data in 2021, investors, regulators, and the broader public are exercising greater scrutiny of corporate sustainability efforts. In 2022, corporate boards and government leaders will face rising pressure to demonstrate that they are adequately equipped to understand and oversee ESG issues — from climate change to human rights to social unrest.
As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, geopolitical factors are affecting trade, and commodities and energy markets in the region with implications for Europe and the world at large.
While much of the world is rebounding from the COVID-19 crisis’ economic downturn, global supply chains are facing continuing pressures from pandemic-prompted changes in consumption patterns, surging demand for goods, shortages of workers, and pre-existing political pressures—leading to high shipping volumes and freight costs. Analysts expect disruptions to persist through 2022.
After a year that saw the dissemination of coronavirus vaccines, historic net-zero policy discussions, and the disruption of supply chains and energy markets, 2022 is likely to result in a recalibration of the global economy.
2021 brought hope for global economic growth following 2020’s coronavirus-caused downturn, largely tied to the development and widespread deployment of COVID-19 vaccines and despite the rise of new variants. High energy prices and supply chain pressures have spurred record-high inflation. The pandemic has continued to reinforce the importance of environmental, social, and governance engagement, and this year marked a seminal moment on the pathway to next-zero. Revisit our research and insights on the biggest events that shaped this year.
The global metals and mining industry has a complex role in the energy transition. The industry is responsible for sourcing the supply of battery and rare earth metals like cobalt, lithium, and dysprosium used in solar panels, electric vehicles, and other sustainable solutions. But years of capital constraints and underinvestment may pose risks to mining companies that need to meet dramatically roaring demand now and into the future.
As the COVID-19 pandemic drags on toward a third year, S&P Global Ratings considers: What will be the short- and long-term effects on the global economy and credit markets?
Private, public, and social sectors across the U.S. can help transition the Black community from jobs at risk of automation into advanced careers with intention by targeting the younger generation of labor participants to close historical inequities and solidify a stronger economy for the future of work.
U.S. President Joe Biden signed a $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill into law on Nov. 15. The infrastructure package has the potential create more economic activity than it would cost, alongside stimulating renewable energy programs.
The 26th U.N. Climate Change Conference concluded on Nov. 12 after two weeks of deliberations between political and corporate leaders from around the globe on how to best combat climate change. The talks resulted in commitments for billions of investment in climate finance and to phase-out coal-fired generation in the coming decades, alongside an increased urgency to control greenhouse gas emissions to control global warming below 2 degrees Celsius.
New York Climate Week brought together investors, business leaders, and policymakers for increasingly urgent climate discussions. Climate Week is just the start of a busy autumn calendar of climate-related events, building to the U.N.’s much-anticipated COP26 conference in November.
Investment in offshore wind has surged as economies jump into the race to reach net-zero emissions in the coming decades.
Governments and corporations are under pressure to act urgently to strengthen their climate pledges. Nations, financial institutions, and companies around the globe have filled the headlines with 2050 net zero targets, but near-term action, progress, and accountability are sorely needed.
The U.S. is confronted with a set of major challenges—some long in the making, but all of which have new urgency. Businesses and non-profit organizations can contribute toward meeting social challenges because of their experience meeting the needs of consumers and different stakeholders.
In efforts of reducing emissions, many economies are prioritizing liquified natural gas (LNG) within their energy mix. As a result, global demand for the fuel has soared. But market participants are now confronting record high LNG prices and shipping constraints as a result of supply shortages and the high demand.
The private debt market has grown tenfold in the past decade with assets under management of funds primarily involved in direct lending surging to $412 billion at end-2020—spurred in part by investors’ search for higher yield.
Navigating a pathway to a low-carbon global economy requires a new plan. The S&P Global Platts Atlas of Energy Transition, produced in collaboration with S&P Global Market Intelligence, is your map to the sustainable commodity markets of the future.
While COVID-19 vaccination rates are rising globally, the spread of the delta variant and regional infection rates may continue to affect economic outcomes in various regions. Global credit conditions have begun to stabilize, but inflation pressures and supply chain frictions could cause present new challenges.
As the global race to net-zero intensifies, all eyes are on Europe as a model for a sustainable future. The region leads the world in adopting climate policy and regulation, green bond issuance, and renewable energy integration.
Of all companies using digital customer experience (CX) terms in their earnings transcripts, CX leaders and CX learners—as we define them in our study—have higher equity returns (using a composite index method) than their industry peers on average. Companies that use technology as a way of focusing on and adapting to their customers' needs have a clear advantage from the standpoint of investor appetite.
New York Climate Week brought together investors, business leaders, and policymakers for increasingly urgent climate discussions. Climate Week is just the start of a busy autumn calendar of climate-related events, building to the U.N.’s much-anticipated COP26 conference in November.
Global sustainability policies are evolving rapidly. In the U.S., President Joe Biden has made climate change and environmental justice priorities of his administration. In the European Union, ESG regulations like the green taxonomy and the Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR) are changing the way companies do business. S&P Global Sustainable1 tracks the trends, the costs and the outlook.
Market participants across the U.S. are taking action to make power and energy grids more resilient, as compounding climate risk and more frequent extreme weather disasters have reinforced the urgent need to strengthen aging transmission systems and infrastructure.
After Hurricane Ida made its initial landfall in Louisiana and subsequently continued into the Northeastern U.S., power outages affected more than 1 million people, oil and gas companies suspended operations in one of the country’s most critical energy centers, and trade disruption had the potential to reach as far as Japan. Preliminary losses from the devastating storm were estimated to total roughly $25 billion.
As market conditions evolve and prices skyrocket, the global steel industry is prioritizing decarbonization as the pathway forward through current disruption—from China to Latin America to the U.S. and beyond.
The Bank of England has kicked off its 2021 CBES to assess the resilience of the largest UK banks and insurers to climate-related risks associated with the move to a net zero economy. The Bank intends for the CBES to be a learning exercise, helping stakeholders better understand any adjustments that might be needed in coming decades for the financial system to remain resilient.
This year, a surge of global market participants are entering the world of carbon finance. Companies are looking to neutralize much of their emissions by buying carbon offsets, or credits generated by projects that reduce carbon emissions elsewhere.
Latin America is performing better than expected in the second half of 2021. Households and businesses are adapting quickly to living in a pandemic, and lockdowns are having much less of an impact on activity than anticipated. The metals and mining industries are expected to boom as countries across the world look to Latin America to acquire necessary minerals for ESG initiatives. In the energy sector, crude production reached a new record and producers are increasing output.
In September 2020 President Xi Jinping announced ambitious energy goals to reach carbon neutrality by 2060 for China, the world’s biggest consumer of electricity and polluter.
As the nation’s plans push forward, it’s economy is adapting to a new reality of factors such as green spending, emission targets, and carbon market trading.
U.S. broadband providers are carrying considerable momentum out of the pandemic despite increased competition and impending service maturity with penetrations nearing 90% of occupied household.
The pandemic caused shifting work and school patterns that fueled 5.5 million new customers in 2020 and promise unflattering year-over-year comparisons, but the prospects for growth remain upbeat.
The credit outlook is improving. Credit stability has returned for U.S. public finance and S&P Global Ratings expects it to continue for the remainder of the year, but concerns persist over rising inflation in the U.S., which could prompt rising interest rates and possible spillover to other regions. Unlike in advanced economies – the U.S. and U.K. in particular – vaccination rollout remains low in Emerging Markets. Most EMs continue to struggle with handling the pandemic.
Cybersecurity breaches are on the rise, particularly in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Effective collaboration between private and public sector leaders is key to ensuring a nation is cyber resilient. At a company level, CISOs can hone four key skill sets to protect their organizations from cyber risks.
Facing a flurry of mergers and acquisitions, the energy transition to renewable generation, obstacles to new construction, and security and regulatory risks, the global pipeline industry is weathering a storm of rapid change and demand.
A craze for content has sent media companies into a consolidation race, and social media platforms alongside other digital entities toward courting creators with monetization.
The global oil market is already poised for a recovery from the coronavirus-caused demand destruction in the second half of this year. Renewed relations between the U.S. and Iran to re-establish the 2015 nuclear deal could usher the Middle Eastern economy’s oil output into the flow of the global industry’s new reality.
Facing an apparent existential crisis, the world's largest oil companies have recently felt the force of climate activism in boardrooms and courtrooms. As such investor pressure escalates, oil majors will next need to solve the riddle between net-zero and net profits.
As central banks continue to play a pivotal role in global markets, how important will future policy decisions be in bolstering the liquidity of sustainable debt markets?
Credit trends are improving rapidly, albeit with significant differences across regions and sectors. The primary positive drivers remain intact: rebounding economies, vaccination progress, plentiful liquidity, and a strong appetite for risk even at the weakest end of the credit spectrum.
As the global energy industry accelerates toward less carbon-intensive operations, the natural gas sector faces risks and opportunities across the value chain to its viability and purpose in the energy transition to renewable generation.
The U.S. jobs market is improving at a steady pace, with the number of initial unemployment claims continuing to fall and some job postings currently higher than their pre-pandemic levels. But potential employees are still hesitant to return to the U.S. workforce due to concerns of the virus, loss of expanded unemployment benefits, and limited childcare options.
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will likely be the among world’s slowest growing regions in 2021. The size of the economies of five key SSA countries (Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa) will be 6.6% smaller than the pre-pandemic long-run trend-based estimate by the end of 2024.
The Mexican government has issued a plethora of regulations in the midstream and power sectors that have had broad implications for the country’s energy industry. Now, the outcome of Mexico's June elections will be decisive for the future energy landscape as the country’s leader seeks to gain enough support to revise the country's constitution and implement a formal end to the country's energy liberalization.
Black women in America face several hurdles to success, particularly regarding educational and professional opportunities, with the white-Black wage gap for female professionals at $12,700 in 2019. These inequities also mean lost productivity and lost economic growth.
Even as the global economy emerges from the coronavirus crisis, the economic and financial shocks of the pandemic are likely to main visible in the earnings of global multiline insurers in 2021. Insurers are likely to see an increase in claims in personal lines as lockdowns end or loosen up and as extreme weather is expected to intensify.
As economies across North America, Europe, and the Middle East weigh various future energy market scenarios required to align under the Paris Agreement, blue hydrogen is emerging as one of the most viable off ramps from fossil fuels in a deep decarbonization regime. Globally, production capacity of blue hydrogen is expected to grow significantly over the next decade, dramatically outpacing planned capacity for green hydrogen.
Having already witnessed some of the consequences of climate change around the world, more and more investors are now factoring ESG into their investment decisions. Enter the S&P PACT™ Indices (S&P Paris-Aligned & Climate Transition Indices), created to give market participants access to strategies designed to be compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
As of May 26, 2021, the Dow Jones Industrial Average will have been determining the flood tide of the market for 125 years.
Women CEOs exhibited a different leadership style than men during the COVID-19 crisis, leaning toward empathy, adaptability, accountability, and diversity, based on our sentiment analysis of earnings call transcripts of the leaders of nearly 5,000 companies in the S&P Global Broad Market Index from March 9, 2020 to Dec. 31, 2020.
Cybersecurity is solidifying as a top governance concern within environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations as cyberattacks increase in frequency and severity—alongside the financial losses and disruptions that can follow in their wake. The cyberattack on Colonial Pipeline, a main artery of the U.S. fuel supply, is the most recent incident that has raised questions over whether industries are adequately prepared to mitigate risk and safeguard vulnerabilities.
Businesses are realizing the extent to which they can achieve their commercial goals while employees work remotely. But what are these companies and employees missing in the absence of propinquity?
Hopes for a global economic rebound are closely connected to the successful COVID-19 vaccine rollout. Estimates for when this recovery will occur range from as early as the second quarter to the end of this year, due to current vaccination efforts and levels of activity varying across regions that need to pull out of the pandemic together.
Exploding demand, factory outages, and supply chain disruptions are creating a global shortage of semiconductors. Market participants, investors, and policymakers are actively trying to address the chip crunch’s adverse effects on car and electric vehicle makers, solar power providers, medical device producers, and technology firms.
The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated global banks’ technological disruption—creating new customer expectations, new forms of competition, and new opportunities. Increasing investments in sustainable finance, a surge of mergers and acquisitions, and crypto entrants are further shaping this new landscape.
Against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic’s continued disruption to the global economy, geopolitical tensions are roiling trade worldwide. While Asian countries are coming together to form new trade agreements, uncertainty over China-Australia and U.S.-U.K. trade relations prevails. Separately, global commodities, solar industries, and meat processing sectors face supply chain risks.
The surge of coronavirus cases in India isn’t just a crisis for the emerging economy—but for the entire world. As India’s population suffers, its economy may not be far behind. And the steep surge in India's COVID-19 cases has taken a toll on the country's energy, metals and agriculture markets alongside the international price outlook of some commodities.
As the global economy pushes to decarbonize over the next two to three decades, many industries are looking to hydrogen as the fuel to power their energy transitions and meet green production targets. The industrial gas sector is likely to be one of the first to benefit from the move to a hydrogen economy, alongside existing end markets like oil refining, chemicals, and fertilizers.
Climate change and biodiversity loss are interlinked, but solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are unlikely to benefit biodiversity in the same way. Instead, biodiversity needs to be given equal consideration in any nature-based climate solution offering. Targeted corporate and government actions to reduce deforestation linked to soy, beef, and palm oil will form a key part of the response, as will supporting smallholder farmers and indigenous communities to protect nature.
As the outlook for the economic rebound coming out of the COVID-19 crisis brightens, market participants are closely watching the shape and speed of the recovery. Many are concerned about the risk of rapidly rising inflation as the Treasury yield curve steepens, commodity prices surge worldwide, and stimulus money fills U.S. consumers’ pockets. However, such inflation fears may be overblown. Orderly reflation may be a positive development for both credit and the macroeconomy.
Coal will likely continue to be an easy target for elimination from the global energy mix after years of the industry's structural decline. The COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating the energy transition, lenders continue to adopt policies to phase out fossil fuel funding, and low natural gas prices keep shaking the perception that coal is the cheapest source of dispatchable electricity. Renewables are on track to surpass coal-fired generation, which is currently the largest single source of global energy-related carbon emissions, as the largest electricity source in the world by 2025.
This year will be key in the London Inter-Bank Offered Rate (LIBOR) transition—which will be effective after December 2021 for sterling, euro, yen and Swiss franc LIBOR settings and, after June 2023, for most U.S. dollar settings.
The outlook for the hospitality industry is brightening after more than a year of tumult, and consumers around the world are ready for a return to normal—on flights and at restaurants, hotels, and more. But while the global vaccine rollout is pointing toward a more positive future for lodging, travel and tourism, and food and beverage sectors, the recovery won’t be smooth.
Beyond capturing international attention, costing the global economy billions of dollars in lost trade, and launching multitudes of memes, the implications of the Ever Given being stuck in the Suez Canal have reminded the world on the fragility of supply chains.
The future for cities will be sustainable—but how soon those in the United States will go green is still up in the air
In a post-pandemic world, the global healthcare industry may be unrecognizable due to the crisis’ acceleration of disruption. The future of healthcare will likely be shaped by technology and innovation.
Special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, have come to offer private companies a more certain pathway to public markets, something that gained new value in the highly uncertain year that was 2020—during which SPACs raised close to $100 billion in public offerings. That momentum is likely to accelerate.
The “meme stock” moment affecting equity investing is more than just a situational phenomenon. The short squeeze that sent the stocks of struggling businesses, namely the brick-and-mortar video game retailer GameStop and cinema group AMC Entertainment, into unprecedented price volatility may permanently alter risk management, lead to a new wave of regulatory scrutiny, and burst what many see as a market bubble.
In response to demand and regulatory drivers, the quality and quantity of ESG data will continue improving. Meanwhile, in the U.S., the new Biden administration will reinvigorate ESG policies and climate urgency. With this growing global urgency around climate, conversations about energy transition will become increasingly nuanced and the nature of transition conversations will shift from climate mitigation to climate resilience. While threats to nature and biodiversity will take centerstage in ‘E’ discussions, social issues will gain traction with investors and in global policy discussions.
After the pandemic significantly impacted industrial activity, global steel markets, and downstream producers last year, 2021 is expected to bring forth a vastly improving outlook for mining.
The pandemic’s shifts to people’s personal and professional lives have accelerated innovation across the global entertainment industry—but there will still be obstacles on the red carpet to recovery.
Power grid operators’ struggle to prevent outages during extreme weather poses long-term problems as the physical effects of climate change accelerate
As the recovery takes shape, the future of banking will be primarily transformed by technological disruption and consolidation.
Oil, gas, and renewable energy producers have turned to mergers and acquisitions to weather the storm of pressure that the COVID-19 pandemic continues to rain on global demand. The consolidation of oil and gas companies that, faced with bankruptcy, joined together to stay solvent will reshape the industry landscape for years to come—especially as they invest in the transition away from fossil fuel generation to clean energy.
The unequal effect of the pandemic on different socioeconomic groups around the world has created a “great divide” that is likely to continually heighten inequalities in 2021.
U.S. President Joe Biden’s first 100 days are expected to be notable as he moves quickly to address the pandemic’s implications and execute his climate change agenda through executive action and the launch or rollback of agency rules.
Once considered an alternative trend, cryptocurrencies have become mainstream and appear here to stay. Beyond blockchain technology beginning to democratize global energy trading, Latin American banks are taking advantage of the recent boom and even central banks around the world are exploring the creation of their own digital fiat currency.
Global recovery prospects from the COVID-19 pandemic look brighter for 2021, but the sequence of the recovery matters. As several effective vaccines begin to rollout in several countries, leaders are navigating the social, financial, and economic effects of the disease as they look to a post-pandemic world.
The report reviews the events that were emblematic of the changes in trade policy, logistics sector and industrial supply chain operations in 2020, based on our monthly most-read research review and the c1,200 reports published by Panjiva research in 2020. For each report we outline what it covered, why it mattered and what the data told us, with charts updated for the most recent data available.
The U.K. left the European Union on Jan. 31, 2020 and entered a set of transitional arrangements for trade and customs that applied through Dec. 31, 2020. On Dec. 24 the two sides signed a provisional “ EU-U.K. Trade and Cooperation Agreement Agreement” (TCA) that will provide a framework for relations going forward.
Panjiva’s 2020 year-ahead Outlook series provided views on the outlook for over 30 topics across a wide range of global trade, logistics and industrial supply chain subjects. This report flags issues we missed or got wrong, why and what may happen next.
Global recovery prospects from the COVID-19 pandemic look brighter for 2021, but the sequence of the recovery matters. As several effective vaccines begin to rollout in several countries, leaders are navigating the social, financial, and economic effects of the disease as they look to a post-pandemic world.
2020 spawned an unprecedented global public health crisis, during which the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the economy, governments, and the society in which we live; reduced fossil fuel consumption and emissions, and accelerated calls for tangible climate actions; and launched a historic period of civil unrest as widespread protests against racial injustice unfurled around the world.
The COVID-19 pandemic has placed much of the hope of returning back to normal on the pharmaceutical industry to develop effective treatments and vaccines. While the first round of vaccinations has begun worldwide, widespread availability, distribution, and administration are the next big steps toward a new normal and economic recovery.
As the COVID-19 pandemic has severely the global economy, new infrastructure could be the catalyst the global economy needs to regenerate productivity and growth following the coronavirus-caused downturn. Some countries’ public transport and airport sectors face short-term credit risks, while the world's financial market infrastructure companies see credit quality opportunities from stakeholders’ increasing focus environmental, social, and governance factors. Still, the global recovery—from India to Mexico—won’t be quick.
S&P Global welcomes the opportunity to respond to the IFRS Foundation Consultation Paper on Sustainability Reporting. We hope that our comments are helpful to the ongoing work of the IFRS Foundation and would be happy to discuss any questions or comments further.
The COVID-19 pandemic's implications for global insurance markets have largely been felt through asset risks, volatility in capital markets, and weaker premium growth prospects.
The expansion of Apple, Alphabet, Amazon.com, and Facebook across the smartphone ecosystem, digital advertising, e-commerce, and social media could decelerate as the tech giants face scrutiny from U.S. and European regulators. In China, Alibaba may be the most likely target of growing antitrust scrutiny of internet companies in the country.
U.S. regulators have renewed their focus on how race plays into insurance practices. The U.S. insurance industry has made some progress in adding more women and people of color to its ranks over the last decade.
Against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic’s continued disruption to the global economy, geopolitical tensions are roiling trade worldwide. While Asian countries are coming together to form new trade agreements, uncertainty over China-Australia and U.S.-U.K. trade relations prevails. Separately, global commodities, solar industries, and meat processing sectors face supply chain risks.
The Covid-19 pandemic has created an unprecedented level of uncertainty for the media and entertainment worldwide. Crippled by the global economic downturn and changed consumer behavior, television and film, gaming, and advertising industries remain at a standstill without a clear spotlight on how to return to normal.
President-elect Joe Biden’s party is unlikely to control the Senate, limiting his ability to implement the sweeping climate policies he pledged during his campaign.
Disastrous wildfires have engulfed the Western U.S. since August, ravaging millions of acres of land across California and surrounding states and causing widespread blackouts. The fires are forcing communities, energy companies, and policymakers alike to confront the immediate physical risks of climate change. As conditions such as these become more frequent and catastrophic in the short-term, the question of how power systems will adapt is becoming more urgent.
Banks put aside enormous allowances for loan losses in the first half of the year as they expected elevated borrower defaults during the economic downturn. But there are questions about whether the losses will exceed those allowances, or how this might weigh on profitability.
In the midst of a global health crisis and economic downturn, the 2020 U.S. presidential election comes at an unprecedented time of volatility. While the incumbent President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden have vastly different platforms on taxes, fiscal stimulus, regulation, and immigration, the two candidates have taken similar positions on trade and infrastructure.
The rising number of cyberattacks during the pandemic, coupled with the additional security risks of remote work, has forced almost all organizations to speed up their digital transformation plans. New security technologies are coming to the forefront, as the latest defenses for corporate cybersecurity.
Climate change is expected to magnify water-related risk to industries and societies. Warmer seas, heavier rains, longer droughts, and other extreme weather situations caused by global warming will threaten the energy industry, especially nuclear, coal, and hydropower generation. Other industries will also have to prepare for a more erratic relationship with water, including mining and telecoms.
European policymakers have pushed ahead with climate-focused policies despite the impact of the coronavirus crisis on their economies. Meanwhile, U.S. Democrats have advocated modern, sustainable infrastructure upgrades and aggressive action on climate change if Joe Biden wins the White House.
In CRISIL Research's May 26, 2020, GDP outlook, India’s worst recession in decades was at hand. Come September, CRISIL now foresees it contracting further by a rate not seen since the 1950s. GDP growth in fiscal 2021 will dive deeper as risks coalesce.
This report provides the S&P Global Energy Transition Research Lab's insights on COVID-19 and the energy transition—at the critical time when commitments to net zero are increasing.
The energy transition to a low carbon economy will be especially challenging—since many industries and economies have become reliant upon cheap, expendable energy sources to power their growth. Nevertheless, there is evidence of businesses, investors, and policymakers’ longer-term visions as climate change enters the horizon of our planning cycles.
Although the U.S. healthcare sector’s credit quality is likely to continue deteriorating as the pandemic persists, the industry is showing some signs of stability and the race for a COVID-19 vaccine could further accelerate the pace of change in the sector
Governments around the world are racing to achieve carbon neutrality—but the path to net-zero is not without its challenges. Faith in natural gas as a bridge fuel is faltering, European oil majors are outpacing the U.S. on climate goals, and globally, investors are pressuring the mining sector to decarbonize.
From challenges to global trade, concerns in the energy sector, and upheaval in retail industry, corporations and investors are navigating the pandemic's disruptions to global supply chains.
Airlines and the aerospace industry will likely suffer an extended period of turbulence from the COVID-19 crisis. Hopes for a fast recovery by airlines have not materialized, and a full return to pre-pandemic traffic is not expected for years. This has secondary effects on aerospace manufacturing and other industries that rely upon commercial aviation for business.
If there was any doubt about a retail apocalypse prior to the coronavirus pandemic, it is now impossible to ignore the profound changes exacerbated by the crisis that are affecting the retail industry. E-commerce growth, increasing competition for wallet share, and generational shifts toward spending more money on experiences over products have long weighed on the sector. Now, there is no telling how long it will take for foot traffic to return to pre-pandemic levels at brick-and-mortar stores.
As the coronavirus pandemic has obliterated demand for autos, analysts estimate that almost all global automakers are preparing to report significant losses for a calamitous second quarter—switching industry watchers' focus from profit to cash flow management and survival.
Net zero goals imply huge shifts in strategy for global oil majors, but approaches vary. S&P Global Platts Analytics’ modelling lays out the potential displacement in both oil demand and capital expenditure up ahead, and highlights the inherent risks of each pathway for carbon reduction.
The pandemic is likely to have an enduring permanent effect on working practices and the commercial real estate market. When the majority of knowledge workers finally return to the work spaces they left behind to work from home, their offices will be unrecognizable as social distancing becomes business-as-usual.
As ESG factors become increasingly important to governments and companies around the world, hydrogen has solidified as a means to divest from fossil fuels across commercial, power generation, and transportation industries. Although it is not yet a perfect solution, as most hydrogen today is produced from fossil fuels, the global community is racing to research and implement hydrogen within the energy mix in efforts of accelerating the energy transition and achieving net-zero emissions.
During the current period of coronavirus-caused geopolitical uncertainty, global commodities markets have experienced unprecedented volatility. Throughout the crisis, while the price of oil plunged and equities benchmarks skyrocketed and plunged, gold has emerged as a safe haven for investors. Gold's rising market price, massive secondary supply, and expected Q2 success have cemented its shining status as uncertainty prevails.
This report is a three-part series providing a guide to developments we expect for global supply chains in Q3 2020. The impact of COVID-19 has been the defining factor for supply chains in the first half of the year. Recovery will mark the second.
The Shape Of Recovery: Uneven, Unequal, Uncharted
The Global Economy Begins A Slow Mend As COVID-19 Eases Unevenly
Companies and investors around the world are confronting unprecedented economic and social disruption by prioritizing and promoting social justice through environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors—echoing calls for more workplace diversity and greater investment in social and green bonds.
This report considers the ways in which Panjiva’s global supply chain data may be useful for credit risk analysis before taking a look at evolution of supply chain risks from trade policy uncertainty through to the COVID-19 pandemic before taking a deep dive into three sectors.
The landmark Paris Agreement marked a sea change in the global fight against climate change.1 Backed by empirical evidence from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), ambition has since grown to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C since pre-industrial levels.
The coronavirus pandemic has presented utility regulators with a set of obstacles they have never before confronted, challenging them to adapt regulatory tools to balance the interests of ratepayers struggling through unemployment and gas distributors juggling unanticipated costs and lost revenues.
Women leaders from metals and mining industries share experiences and views on diversity.
The coronavirus pandemic hit the brakes on global economies, but as the pandemic becomes a constant and not a crisis, opportunity lies in recovery. If governments direct their nations’ recovery spending plans to align with green principles, plunging emissions could refocus growth in clean energy initiatives and companies can adopt ESG policies to help fight climate change.
Combining 451 Research’s industry-leading analysis with a proprietary global panel of IT decision-makers, Voice of the Enterprise: Digital Pulse tracks the disruption occurring in the market and exposes the major impacts and opportunities for enterprises, IT vendors, suppliers and investors. This survey was designed to measure the impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak on businesses. It was conducted between May 26 and June 11, 2020, and represents approximately 575 completes from pre-qualified IT decision-makers.
The CMU has the potential to turn the tide in Europe. At present, its substantial savings are ineffectively allocated in a fragmented financial sector dominated by banks. As a result, investment, innovation, and growth are subdued.
As countries around the world reignite their economic activity, Europe is navigating transitional challenges with a sustainable perspective. While the EU's proposal for an unprecedented €750B spending package is explicitly to green principles and the EU’s Capital Markets Union has the potential to turn the tide in the region, there is still little certainty over the length or full impact of the coronavirus pandemic on European businesses.
The global pandemic and economic crisis have served to accelerate long term changes in the markets. This is especially visible in China where early signs of recovery and a post-COVID status quo are emerging. China's economy and role in the world have evolved in a few short months, giving market observers a sense for the future.
Extended coronavirus-containment measures are pushing the world into the deepest recession since the Great Depression. Although we expect the drop in economic activity to be sharp but fairly short, the path to recovery remains very uncertain.
Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) risks and opportunities are taking on new shapes as the coronavirus pandemic continues. While companies are accounting for the material impacts of environmental risk and countries prepare to invest in sustainable energy solutions to aid in the post-crisis recovery, the additional ESG components are increasing in importance. Disruptions to daily life and the global economy are illustrating the significance of social factors, including health and safety management, communities, inclusive workforces, and customer engagement, and governance factors like structure and oversight, cores and values, transparency and reporting, and cyber risks and systems.
Because of the coronavirus pandemic, the longest U.S. economic expansion in U.S. history has abruptly ended: We forecast that U.S. economic activity will shrink by 11.8% ($566 billion) in real terms, peak to trough. The well over 30 million jobs lost at the trough will wipe out all the jobs created in 23 or more years. Economic damage will be three times greater than the Great Recession, in one-third the time.
Initial assurances by authorities that food supply chains would remain robust during the COVID-19 outbreak are giving way to a more complex reality. At this time, food shortages are not a problem in most of the world. But the pandemic and the economic shutdown are starting to reveal systemic weaknesses in the supply chains that bring food to markets and may be pointing the way towards trouble ahead.
Rising Credit Pressures Amid Deeper Recession, Uncertain Recovery Path
Government measures to stem the spread of coronavirus have escalated in the past three weeks amid a tripling of confirmed cases globally, to more than 2.5 million. These measures, together with business and consumer behavioral changes, are resulting in wider and deeper economic effects— and worse credit conditions—than we estimated our previous report published April 1. We also see the post-pandemic recovery taking longer, based on the experience of China, the first major economy to emerge from the crisis.
Amidst the coronavirus pandemic’s turbulent implications, environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues have taken on new shapes. Read our latest round-up of essential intelligence on ESG in the time of COVID-19.
Containment measures to stem the COVID-19 pandemic have pushed the world’s largest economies into near-hibernation. While China shows early signs of re-emerging from this, Europe and the U.S. aren’t yet past the viral peak. We have also yet to see the full impact on vulnerable emerging markets. Combined with historical collapse in oil prices, and record volatility in the markets, this put significant pressure on creditworthiness around the world. Industries most exposed to the dramatic drop in global demand and much tighter financing conditions have experienced the most downgrades so far.
The effects of the coronavirus pandemic now seem likely to push the world economy into recession, with full-year global growth of just 1-1.5%. Combined with the collapse in oil prices and extreme capital markets volatility, this will likely mean a surge in defaults among borrowers we rate. Stay updated on the latest news around credit markets and COVID-19 with this digest, updated daily.
Countries’ measures to stem the spread of coronavirus have escalated in the past two weeks amid a doubling of confirmed cases globally to more than 2 million. These efforts, together with business and consumer behavioral changes, are having wider and deeper effects on economies than previously estimated. We also see the post-pandemic rebound taking longer, based on the experience of China, the first major economy to begin its recovery from the crisis. Our special report is updated daily with research and reports that examine the effects the pandemic are having on the global economy and financial markets.
With the world locked down for the coronavirus, global oil demand is seeing its sharpest plunge on record. Current estimates have 2020 oil demand contracting by as little as 6.8 million b/d, as predicted by OPEC, to as much as 9.3 million b/d, according to the International Energy Agency. Still further downgrades are possible based on when economic activity starts to return. But so much is unknown about that timeline all across the globe. Our analysts, researchers, and reporters are assessing the situation on a daily basis.
The Voice of the Enterprise: Digital Pulse, Coronavirus Flash survey wave was conducted in March 2020. The survey represents approximately 820 completed interviews and 15 hour-long interviews from pre-qualified IT decision-makers. This survey focuses on the impacts to businesses of the global COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak.
Our latest report on gender diversity in the global technology industry features original research charting the progress made and challenges that remain in reaching equality, alongside interviews with women leaders blazing a trail through the sector.
As political and social pressures grow to transition away from carbon intensive sources of electricity, utilities find themselves torn between the need to produce cheap power and the need to meet the challenges of a changing climate.
The insurance industry faces threats from cyberrisk in more ways than one. From battling extortion attacks to wrestling with war exclusions, cyber insurers are combatting risks beyond database breaches. Our latest technology research roundup explores the cyber and insurance space, where technology and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) risks converge.
As the situation surrounding the spread of coronavirus continues to develop, markets around the globe are feeling its impacts. Our researchers and reporters are analyzing the coronavirus’ effects on trade — from oil and commodities markets to freight and logistics and beyond.
Despite publicly acknowledging the scale of the challenge, most integrated oil majors continue to pursue their traditional business at all cost. Read our latest round-up of ESG essential intelligence on the shifting landscape oil majors face.
Emerging Trends and Analysis of the SDG Impact of Companies in the S&P 500® - It has been four years since the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development with its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) was adopted at the UN Sustainable Development Summit. During this time the SDGs have garnered widespread backing among companies and investors who have made modest progress towards aligning business strategies and capital allocation with the SDGs.
Investment management professionals used to focus on portfolio risk and returns. We now must consider returns along three dimensions: risk, return and impact.
While the extent and effectiveness of the global response to climate change remain uncertain, one thing is very clear: Companies and investors must prepare for a range of possible outcomes with diverging transition and physical risks. We look into these risks in our latest research, which debuted at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
In the next few decades, millions of lives and trillions of dollars will be at risk because of a single issue: climate change. Our research and analyses look at the related risks — and opportunities — that countries, companies, and investors face in addressing the changing climate.
What is the future for coal-fired generation in the face of the energy transition? Even as regions move to evolve their energy mix towards primarily renewable sources, the demand for coal won’t disappear. Read our latest round up of ESG essential intelligence on coal and the energy transition.
Our industry reports suggest a difficult operating environment, as companies battle the headwinds of disruption, cost pressures, regulation and adapting to environmental concerns. Economic worries and trade disputes head the list of immediate concerns. Looking ahead, there’s a mixture of short- and long-timeframe risks and opportunities to consider for all sectors detailed in our collection of 2020 outlooks.
Looking back on our year in review, revisit our essential intelligence on climate risk, the future of banking, and more important topics that were read, watched, and listened to most in 2019 by S&P Global audiences.
Amid an entrenched trade war, historic Asia-Pacific debt issuance, and a record U.S. economic expansion, world credit markets are being pushed and pulled in several directions.
This series of articles examines the lack of diversity in human research for cancer, Alzheimer's disease and cardiovascular diseases and how simple things like a language barrier or a secondary disease can exclude a person from participating in a clinical trial.
Who will pay for a plastic-free future? What are the alternatives to single-use plastic? How are hoteliers moving to prevent millions of pounds of plastic waste? Looking back at our ESG research and analyses from November, we’re showcasing our most essential insights on plastics.
As COP25 begins in Madrid, we're sharing our recent research and insights on climate risk, climate benchmarks, and energy transition.
5G service is slowly but surely moving from hype to reality. Though the networks have yet to reach more than a small fraction of current customer bases, wireless operators’ 5G strategies will soon involve price hikes, competitive global markets, expanded commercial services, and emerging technologies. Our latest technology research round-up showcases our most essential intelligence on what’s happening with 5G now and looking forward.
Looking back at our ESG research and insights from October, we’re showcasing our most essential insights on social and governance factors — from the purpose of a corporation to fair labor practices. These “S” and “G” risks and opportunities can often be overshadowed by environmental factors, even though they also are crucial elements of sustainable investing.
What is ESG, what factors does it reflect, and is it a long-term trend or simply a flash in the pan?
In this five-part special report on China's small independent refiners, S&P Global Platts' extensive tour of the Shandong-based refining sector gauges the direction the region is headed and what this means for global oil markets. Shandong's independents have come a long way, having driven China's and global oil demand growth, but they also face new challenges as the country's overall refining sector evolves.
As the UK and EU grapple with the biggest change in post-War economic relations in Europe, we present a selection of our latest news and insights from across our divisions on the Brexit process and its implications.
Global economic growth continues to slow and the U.S.-China trade dispute is weighing on business investment. We explore the heightened risks to credit conditions across the globe in a global summary.
In one of the most comprehensive studies of its kind, a new report from the S&P Global Market Intelligence Quantamental Research Team examines the performance of firms that have made female appointments to their CEO and CFO positions.
“Garbage in, garbage out” – it’s a cliché in machine learning circles. Anyone who works with artificial intelligence (AI) knows that the quality of the data goes a long way toward determining the quality of the result. But “garbage” is a broad and expanding category in data science – poorly labeled or inaccurate data, data that reflects underlying human prejudices, incomplete data. To paraphrase Tolstoy, great datasets are all alike, but all garbage datasets are garbage in their own, unique and horrible ways.
This September, we’re showcasing our most essential insights on ESG that point out certain positive developments in the space that may signify an improving landscape for environmental, social, and governance issues — from energy transition to the climate bond market.
The attack that damaged some of Saudi Arabia's biggest oil plants will continue to have wide-ranging effects across global oil and energy markets.
For more than a decade, growth in U.S. labor productivity (as measured by output per hour of work) has generally declined—sometimes rather sharply. S&P Global believes this lost decade of productivity gains could have been far different had the federal government increased infrastructure investment to match the levels of just a few decades earlier.
The way we think about monetary policy has changed with the adoption of quantitative easing (QE): It has moved from being a one-dimensional problem of only setting the policy rate (PR) to a two-dimensional problem of jointly determining the PR and QE.
As investors and companies increasingly weigh climate risk into their investment decisions and strategic direction, the question persists whether regulatory or market-based solutions offer a better path forward.
In honor of Climate Week NYC, S&P Global highlights some of our thought leadership on climate risk, ESG, and energy transition to accelerate progress towards a sustainable future.
The Solar Energy Industries Association, a trade group, and the Solar Foundation, a non-profit geared toward accelerating solar adoption, this year released a self-assessment based on two US surveys of employers and employees. The overall verdict: women and African Americans were under represented, and there was a major gender gap in wages and opportunities to move up the career ladder.
Representatives of S&P Global, large institutional investors and corporate ESG experts gathered together in New York City this week to consider the challenge of quantifying climate risk for corporations. Beyond a shared concern over the issue of climate risk, there was a diversity of opinions over the best way to quantify climate risk and the best way for investors to act on their environmental concerns.
Celebrating 20 Years of the Dow Jones Sustainability Indices
Our latest report on gender diversity in the global energy industry features original research charting the progress made and challenges that remain in reaching equality, alongside interviews with women leaders blazing a trail through the sector.
How has Agile at scale impacted S&P Global? Is the world ready for the fourth industrial revolution? What is the best Sentiment Analysis approach? What is edge computing, and how are 5G networks involved? How are data science and Colorado connected? These questions, and more, are answered in this month's technology and innovation research roundup.
In this review of ESG thought leadership from the month of August, we explore the challenges and opportunities that are driving reform and innovation throughout the global energy grid. As climate risk begins to impact the credit worthiness of different regions, a patchwork of regulations and new technologies emerge to meet the need for a greener future.
Broad perspective and original research on China's credit markets from the only foreign-owned credit rating agency approved to work in China.
The new decade will present LNG stakeholders with immense opportunities. As significant additions of elastic supply and demand challenge traditional business models, and the trend towards LNG commoditization gathers pace, what lies ahead?
Pockets of risk are emerging in the United States and Canada. It's déjà vu all over again in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. And even as access to financing increases, political uncertainties persist in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. Our Mid-Year Corporate Credit Reports are essential for understanding credit changes, developments, and key drivers in important markets.
In this roundup of our essential ESG insights from July, we explore the impacts of ESG exposures and factor-based investing on indices, how ESG could weaken the performance of some benevolent companies, ESG’s emergence as a critical issue during the energy conference season, and the challenges seen in decarbonizing the U.S. grid.
Trade tensions—in particular the tariff dispute between the U.S. and China—are casting a shadow on the global economy and financing conditions in all regions. On the bright side, central banks in the world’s biggest economies stand ready to goose growth with interest-rate cuts, and borrowers around the globe are still enjoying a historic run of benign credit conditions.
China’s supply-side reform agenda was launched by President Xi Jinping in late 2015 with a view to stripping out excess capacity that had built up in key industries during China’s emergence as an economic power.
More than three-fifths of C-suite executives in the commodities industry are confident their firms have the capacity to address diversity and inclusion issues, according to the findings of a recent survey commissioned by S&P Global Platts.
South Africa’s gold production is in decline, with platinum group metals looking increasingly lustrous by comparison, and other countries such as Ghana becoming more attractive destinations for gold producers. Filip Warwick reports.
The energy transition to a low carbon economy will be especially challenging since many industries and economies have become reliant upon cheap, expendable energy sources to power their growth.
The mainstreaming of artificial intelligence and machine learning will have a profound impact on the industrial sphere, not least in energy industries. Whether companies are active in the upstream, midstream or downstream segment, they face enormous pressures to control cost while living up to societal demands for environmental stewardship and a wholesale shift to cleaner forms of energy.
Energy companies are facing external pressures to lift their female leadership numbers from institutional investors, activist shareholders, and even potential employees and customers. But a number of female executives interviewed said the internal drivers at their companies were stronger.
The US-China trade conflict has gone from being a tariff dispute to an imminent threat to the global economy, with growth in demand for oil and other commodities at stake. Eric Yep reports
S&P Global is committed to advocating for an inclusive economy as we work to power thriving global communities. Our data and analysis demonstrate that women are increasingly a force that moves the markets, and that an increase in women’s labor force participation has the potential to drive global growth.
Benjamin Franklin once said: “You may delay, but time will not.” This is certainly true for the international shipping industry as it prepares for a plethora of stricter environmental rules that are set to bring escalating costs and operational challenges.
Rapid developments in artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics— coupled with ubiquitous connectivity and vast, easily accessible processing power—are laying the groundwork for fundamental structural changes in the global economy. These mutually reinforcing catalysts are driving exponential innovation across a wide swathe of the economy, reshaping entire industries and creating new ones.
S&P Global adopted Agile Scrum to help our divisions learn to collaborate effectively and work together as one, cohesive company. This adoption, like most big changes, has not been without its challenges. But the lessons learned can help other companies and professionals adopt Agile at scale within their businesses.
GPS is a pivotal technology for the shipping industry, but is proving vulnerable to malicious interference and military activity.
Technology is at the heart of a new "Great Game" between the United States and China and this is a game that matters. More than shrinking the bilateral trade deficit, the focus of U.S. trade and investment policies has turned to technology. There is a geopolitical dimension to this but economics are also prominent. U.S. grievances focus on areas where technology predominates, including protection of intellectual property, access to fast-growing Chinese markets for U.S. firms, and a level playing field versus domestic Chinese champions.
Women are transforming financial markets and economies across the globe. Their risk tolerance, confidence, and willingness to invest will impact our world for years to come.
The additional growth projected from increasing women’s labor participation translates into trillions of dollars in “extra” equity market value. The U.S., for example, could contribute an additional $4.5 trillion in market value over the next decade.
The shift to electronic documents and data in all areas of life is one of the key economic developments of this century, bringing new efficiencies, cost savings and opportunities far beyond anything that could be achieved with paper records. That shift is about to hit commodity trading, which has traditionally relied on vast paper trails to execute, authenticate, and process each transaction.
Increasing diversity and boosting the number of women in leadership positions can benefit the commodities sector and the wider economy. How can this be achieved? We ask five successful women for their thoughts.
The global bull market in stocks has been long. Historic, even. Will it end? Sure, someday, just as all such runs do. But S&P Global has found an underutilized source of growth that could send global market valuations soaring—to the tune of an extra $5.87 trillion over the next decade.
A dual-pronged effort of increasing entry and retention of more women to the American workforce, particularly those professions traditionally filled by men, represents a substantial opportunity for growth of the world’s principal economy, with the potential to add 5%-10% to nominal GDP in just a few decades.
November 2018: Unresolved trade frictions are pressuring global supply chains and with economic headwinds also slowing growth, some borrowers -- especially in emerging markets -- are vulnerable to a financing squeeze from volatile debt, equity and commodities markets.
Escalating trade tensions – especially between the U.S. and China - ratchet up risks after a historic run of benign conditions, expanding leverage moves the credit cycle further into extra innings and capital outflow pressures squeeze emerging markets.
