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EU WHEAT TRACKER: Exports rise 17% on week as prices soften, imports fall 18%

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EU WHEAT TRACKER: Exports rise 17% on week as prices soften, imports fall 18%


Exports rise from Romania, Poland as harvest gathers pace

Imports fall amid fresh crop availability, supply pressure

Poland, Hungary, Slovakia retain restrictions on imports from Ukraine

  • Author
  • Sampad Nandy
  • Editor
  • Aastha Agnihotri
  • Commodity
  • Agriculture

The EU's wheat exports rose 17.1% on the week to Sept. 24 to 580,466 mt, data from the EU Crop Observatory showed Sept. 26.

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Romania and Poland saw significant increase in export quantities during the week, the data showed.

"Exports increased during the week as harvest is gathering pace leading to a steady fall in prices," a trader with a multinational firm said.

Export prices of EU wheat have declined between 2%-4% during the last month, due to supply pressure and availability of cheaper shipments from Russia, the trader added.

S&P Global Commodity Insights' Senior Grains Analyst Victoria Sinitsyna forecast EU wheat exports for marketing year 2023-24 (July-June) at 33 million mt, up from actual exports of 32.98 million mt in the previous year.

Imports fall sharply

The EU's wheat imports fell 18.4% in the week to Sept. 24 to 274,837 mt, the data showed.

Greece and Italy saw rising imports during the week, the data showed.

"Volumes of imports fell sharply during the week as cheaper supplies are available for internal demand," a trader based in Italy said.

Imports are likely to remain poor as Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia decided to continue national ban on agriculture imports from Ukraine despite EU removing restrictions.

Sinitsyna expects the bloc's wheat imports for MY 2023-24 at 6 million mt, down from realized imports of 11.4 million mt in MY 2022-23.

Crop quality concerns

Crop prospects have come under threat from unfavorable weather across Europe. Excessive showers have delayed harvest activities for winter crops such as wheat in parts of France and Germany -- key growers of the grain.

However, the EU Joint Research Centre's Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit has maintained wheat yields forecast in MY 2023-24 at 5.58 mt/ha in its latest update in August, largely unchanged from the five-year average.

"In the EU rains were also disrupting wheat harvest in northern and central regions that implies smaller share of milling quality crop," Sinitsnya said.

Sinitsyna estimated EU's wheat output in MY 2023-24 at 135.2 million mt, up from 134.7 million mt in MY 2022-23.

Key EU wheat market data:

Trade (mt) Latest update Year ago % change
9/24/2023 9/25/2022
Accumulated exports for MY 2023-24 7,059,023 9,686,639 (-) 27.1
Accumulated imports for MY 2023-24 2,500,918 1,211,956 106.4
Price ($/mt) Latest update Week ago % change
9/26/2023 9/19/2023
EU wheat 11.5% FOB CVB Basis Constanta 243 245 (-) 0.8
EU wheat 12.5% FOB CVB Basis Constanta 248 250 (-) 0.8
EU wheat 11% CPT France Basis Rouen 250.25 253 (-) 1.1
Production (million mt) MY 2023-24 MY 2022-23 % change
(August forecast) (July forecast)
Soft wheat 127.08 127.74 (-) 1.6
Durum wheat 7.25 7.27 0.4
Total wheat 134.32 134.70 (-)1.8

Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights, Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development, EU Commission and Agri-food data portal

This article is part of the EU wheat tracker series from S&P Global Commodity Insights, which is published weekly.