OPEC+ moves meeting on voluntary crude output cuts to July 5

The eight members of OPEC+ that are implementing voluntary crude production cuts have brought their next policy meeting forward by a day to July 5, delegates said July 4.

The group is expected to agree to another 411,000 b/d crude quota increase for August at the meeting, as it capitalizes on seasonal demand to bring barrels back to market.

The OPEC Secretariat did not respond to a request for comment.

Preliminary June data indicate that quota increases for the group, which includes Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, are translating into growing supply.

Total OPEC+ seaborne exports of crude and condensate rose 0.6% month on month to 28.23 million b/d in June, according to data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea.

S&P Global Commodity Insights analysts forecast that OPEC+ will fully unwind the voluntary production cuts, which totaled 2.2 million b/d, by October. They expect this to lead to a surplus in the market of more than 1 million b/d by year-end.

Platts assessed Dated Brent at $71.14/b on July 3, down from $80.43/b on June 19 at the height of the conflict. Uncertainty about whether a ceasefire will hold, as well as global trade tensions, are complicating price forecasting for the third quarter.

There may be some points of contention, however, including over compliance. Some countries, including Iraq and Kazakhstan, have persistently produced above target. All members of the group, apart from Algeria -- which has consistently produced within its quota -- have submitted plans to compensate for overproduction since the beginning of 2024.

Countries could also propose alternative strategies. Following the group's last meeting, a delegate said that Russia, Oman and Algeria had proposed a pause in quota increases, before the group agreed to a 411,000 b/d hike for July.