Asian buyers flock to market for feed wheat, prices to see limited downside

Regional feed buyers in Southeast Asia and North Asia entered the market with four tenders for imported feed wheat Jan. 22, though market participants noted that trade prices are unlikely to move significantly lower as the bearishness in the market may have run its course.

Table 1. Feed wheat tenders closing Jan. 22

Given Australia's large production of low-protein wheat in the 2024-25 marketing year (October-September), particularly in Western Australia, market participants believed Australia would be the most competitive origin for the shipment windows sought by South Korea and the Philippines, as it is past the competitive export window for South American and US PNW-delivered feed wheat and too early for EU's new crop to hit the market.

Given the lack of competition from other origins, market sources noted that Australian wheat exporters are unlikely to push sales too aggressively into tender business, especially as grower selling remains slow in most Australian states.

"Other than South Australia, which should be pretty well sold due to lower production this season, grower selling in the other states like Western Australia and New South Wales are still pretty slow, likely below 50% sold," said a grains trade source based in Victoria.

This would, in turn, limit the downside potential for Australian feed wheat prices in the near term, sources added.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, last assessed Australian Standard White with no protein guarantee unchanged on the day at $240/mt FOB Australia Jan. 21.

To date, Australian feed wheat cargoes for 2025 shipment to the Philippines have traded between high-$250s/mt to low-$260s/mt CFR, according to captured trade data from Commodity Insights. Similar trade levels were observed to Thailand for March shipment onward, while in South Korea, US PNW feed wheat has managed to price in more competitively up to March shipment, thanks to sharper freight costs, though sources noted that levels for April shipment onward would be higher, tracking a seasonal decline in export supply availability.

Several trade sources noted that TFMA's feed wheat tender provided a good opportunity for price discovery, given how far ahead the coverage position is compared with its peers in the region, and how the position overlaps with the typical competitive window for Europe's new-crop wheat. However, market participants have also cautioned that indications could be more limited than expected, as it is still too early to have a clear grasp on the crop profile and yields for Europe's new-crop wheat, and few sellers may have the appetite to take a gamble on offers this early on.