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Watch: Market Movers Europe, Jul 26-30: Results season holds market attention across commodities

In this week's highlights: Market participants across the power, oil and metals markets will be turning their focus to a series of results reports this week.

  • Fallout of US-Germany deal on Nord Stream 2 to continue (0:09)
  • Power traders look to EDF results amid UK price premium (1:23)
  • Oil and gas Q2 results optimism (2:12)
  • ArcelorMittal set to report strong results (3:20)
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In this week's highlights: Market participants across the power, oil and metals markets will be turning their focus to a series of results reports this week.

But first, in European gas, the market will continue to digest the implications of the deal between the US and Germany on how to prevent Russia from using energy -- and the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in particular -- as a "weapon". Under the deal, Germany reserves the right to use sanctions to restrict Russian gas exports and also pledges to use all of its power to facilitate the extension of Gazprom's current gas transit deal with Ukraine that expires at the end of 2024. Gazprom says it is happy to extend the contract if the economic conditions are right. Ukraine -- which was largely excluded from talks on the agreement -- has already criticized the US-German deal, saying it was "unbelievable" that Berlin would ever impose sanctions on Russian gas deliveries to Germany. It also said the US and Germany should respect the principle of "no agreement on Ukraine without Ukraine". With Nord Stream 2 set to be complete in August and operational this year, the European gas market will be fundamentally changed, with significantly higher volumes flowing directly from Russia to Germany.

And that takes us to our social media question for the week: Do you expect any extension of Gazprom's current gas transit deal with Ukraine? Tweet us your thoughts using the hashtag #PlattsMM.

Meanwhile in the power market, traders and analysts will be tracking EDF's first-half results press conference closely on July 29 for confirmation of improved French nuclear generation. The event comes after a volatile fortnight in the power markets, impacted by both floods and heat waves. EDF, Europe's largest generator and exporter, recently lifted its 2021 nuclear output forecast some 20% above last year's record lows.

This should offer relief to premium-priced neighbors, notably the UK, which you can see from the chart is at an increasing premium to France. This comes amid poor winter capacity margins, with last week's heat wave seeing ageing gas and nuclear units suffer unscheduled outages -- extending the price gap to the continent.

In oil, it's results season and we'll get a slew of earnings updates this week from most of the oil and gas majors, plus mid-sized and independent companies like Repsol, Lundin Energy and Iraq-focused DNO. The consensus is these companies are benefiting from the market price recovery, especially those with integrated refining operations, given the demand resurgence. Some companies have struggled to fully capture these higher prices due to swathes of upstream production being out of action for maintenance postponed from last year, especially in the North Sea. Shell has already said its upstream production globally was considerably down on pre-pandemic levels. Results season kicks off on July 28 with Norway's Equinor, followed by Shell and TotalEnergies on July 29, then Italy's Eni and the US majors Chevron and ExxonMobil on July 30.

In more oil news, S&P Global Platts has launched a further consultation on the evolution of the Dated Brent Benchmark complex.

You can see a dedicated feedback email for the consultation on screen now. All feedback and questions are welcome, and the first phase of dialogue with the market closes on September 30, 2021.

In other results news, steel giant ArcelorMittal will report its Q2 results July 29. After steel prices reached record highs in various product areas worldwide during the quarter, expectations are for a very strong balance sheet and a favourable production and sales performance report. A consensus of 15 analysts forecasts the Luxembourg-based steelmaker, which produces steel in 17 countries, will report an EBITDA of $4.67 billion for the quarter. This would be a notable increase from $3.2 billion in Q1, when the company reported a significantly improved operating performance on a continued demand recovery from the COVID-19-related market slump in 2020.

The Platts Atlas of Energy Transition is your map to the sustainable commodity markets of the future. You can explore the Atlas by visiting the address displayed on your screen.

Thanks for kicking off your Monday with us and have a great week ahead!