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MISO issues maximum capacity, conservative operations alerts until further notice

Highlights

Temperature forecasts as high as 15 deg above average

MISO power prices, forwards trend higher

The Midcontinent Independent System Operator has issued maximum capacity, conservative operations alerts June 10 as regional temperatures continue to trend above average.

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The Midcontinent Independent System Operator issued a series of alerts on June 9 and June 10, as the US National Weather Service issued Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories through the evening of June 10 for much of the North and Central MISO region.

MISO warnings included expanding the Capacity Advisory issued on June 9 to the entire MISO Market Footprint due to "high temperatures and loads in North and Central Regions, combined with South Region supporting maximum south to north flow on the Regional Dispatch Transfer during the period."

The ISO also issued a Maximum Generation Alert for the regions effective June 10, citing above normal temperatures and forced generation outages, as well as Conservative Operations instructing market participants to suspend all transmission and generation maintenance "unless such maintenance will result in improved Bulk Electric System monitoring, control and security."

Minnesota Hub real-time on-peak locational marginal pricing trended around $66/MWh as of 1 pm ET, amid Minneapolis high temperature forecast at 93 degrees Fahrenheit, 15 degrees above average, according to CustomWeather.

On the Intercontinental Exchange, Indiana Hub real-time HE 0800-HE 2300 strip for June 10 climbed double digits from its previous settlement to trade just slightly below $100/MW as Indianapolis highs could range to 92 F.

Indiana Hub on-peak for next-day delivery was flat on the day around $50/MWh, still remaining relatively elevated. The contract reached its highest level since February 2021 on June 9.

In natural gas, prices were also lifted, providing support to power contracts. The cash price for Natural Gas Pipeline-Nicor rose 1 cent on the day to $3.07/MMBtu, while MichCon city-gates added 2 cents to $3.04/MMBtu for next-day flow, the strongest prices have been since the February 2021 freeze.

Demand responds to warnings

Peakload in the ISO was forecast to reach 113.65 GW on June 10, up about 6% on the day. If this is reached, it would be the highest level since August 2020, according to the ISO data collected by S&P Global Platts. Load forecast for June 11 stood just slightly lower at 111.59 GW.

Month-to-date peakload demand rose about 2% year on year to average 95.48 GW, up from the June 2020 average of 94.36 GW.

Power forwards trend higher

Power forwards trended slightly higher on ICE, with Indiana Hub July-August real-time on-peak rising 40 cents to $41.40/MWh. So far in June, the contract averaged $39.41/MWh, up almost 20% from where it traded in June 2020.