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Asia middle distillates: Key market indicators for Oct 18-22

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Asia middle distillates: Key market indicators for Oct 18-22

Asian middle distillate markets are likely to remain supported during the Oct. 18-22 trading week as tight supply continues to lift sentiment for gasoil and jet fuel/kerosene.

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At 10:02 am Singapore time (0202 GMT), the ICE December Brent crude oil futures contract was at $85.70/b, up 86 cents/b (1.01%) from the Oct. 15 Asian close at $84.84/b.

Jet fuel/kerosene

** Brokers pegged front-month November-December jet fuel/kerosene time spread at plus 18 cents/b at 0202 GMT Oct. 18, narrowing slightly from plus 20 cents/b at the 0830 GMT Asian close Oct. 15, Platts data showed.

** The FOB Singapore jet fuel/kerosene cash differential was assessed at plus 3 cents/b to the Mean of Platts Singapore jet fuel/kerosene assessments Oct. 1, down 18 cents/b from the start of the week, Platts data showed.

** The Asian jet fuel/kerosene market is set to strengthen as easing coronavirus-led travel restrictions will boost demand for the middle distillate, industry sources said, adding that reduced exports from Japan and South Korea during the winter season will further tighten availability of spot barrels.

**The global aviation sector was expected to reach 353.8 million passenger seats in October, up 5.3% month on month, but down 28% from pre-COVID-19 levels, flight and data analytics company OAG said in its latest report. Southeast Asia was expected to post the highest growth at 29%, or 3.2 million additional seats.

** The Q1 2022-Q2 2022 jet fuel/kerosene swap spread, an indication of near-term sentiment, averaged plus $2.07/b over Oct. 11-15, up from plus $1.90/b the week before.

Gasoil

** Prompt balance October-November gasoil market structure pegged at plus $1.10/b at 0202 GMT Oct. 18, widening 13 cents/b from 0830 GMT Asian close Oct. 15, Platts data showed.

** The October Exchange of Futures for Swaps spread was pegged at minus $18/mt at 0300 GMT Oct. 18, widening from minus $17.13/mt at the Oct. 15 Asian close, Platts data showed.

** Traders said Asian gasoil complex remains supported in the week of Oct. 18, on the back of firm sentiment driven by tighter regional supply. The strength has been reflected in a steepening backwardation in the Asian gasoil complex, especially for November-December and December-January derivative time spreads which were assessed at plus 97 cents/b and plus 87 cents/b, respectively, at the Oct. 15 Asian close, up from plus 84 cents/b and plus 79 cents/b at the start of the week ended Oct. 15.

** Data released late Oct. 14 by Enterprise Singapore showed that Singapore's middle distillate commercial stockpiles eased 0.4% week on week to a five-week low of 10.34 million barrels over Oct. 7-13. Enterprise Singapore's latest data showed gasoil imports trickled in at just 46,521 mt for the week ended Oct. 13. Malaysia and Thailand were the only contributors at 37,148 mt and 9,372 mt, respectively. In contrast, gasoil exports remained consistent during the same week at 498,407 mt. The bulk of outflows went to Australia at 187,566 mt, followed by Malaysia and Bangladesh at 83,726 mt and 62,590 mt, respectively.

** The Q1 2022-Q2 2022 gasoil swap spread averaged plus $2.02/b over Oct. 11-15, up from plus $1.74/b the week before.