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US oil production to peak in 2039 at 14.28 million b/d: EIA

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US oil production to peak in 2039 at 14.28 million b/d: EIA

Highlights

US output to fall to 12.18 million b/d by 2050

OPEC to lead oil output growth through 2050

Non-OPEC producers to supply 55% of global output

Washington — US oil production will peak in 2039 at 14.28 million b/d, an increase of 15% from current levels, and decline to 12.18 million b/d by 2050, the Energy Information Administration said Tuesday in its latest long-term international energy outlook.

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The reference case is based on $100/b Brent oil prices in 2050, annual economic growth of 3% and existing government policies.

The US pumped a record 12.43 million b/d in August, according to EIA's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Globally, EIA sees oil production rising to 127 million b/d in 2050, up 30% from 2018 levels, with OPEC growth of 37% outpacing non-OPEC growth of 23%.

Middle Eastern oil production is expected to average 39 million b/d in 2050, a 44% increase from 2018.

EIA expects non-OPEC oil production of 59 million b/d in 2050, with growth led by Canada (up 125% from 2018 levels), Brazil (59%), Russia (22%) and the US (11%).

Non-OPEC countries are expected to produce about 55% of global output in 2050, EIA said.

Global refinery throughput is expected to expand through 2050, with the largest increases in Asia, where runs are seen increasing by 60% from 2018 levels to 51 million b/d in 2050.

US refinery runs are projected to remain steady despite rising domestic crude production.

"Refinery throughput in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa decreases slightly through much of the projection period before an uptick in refinery buildout occurs between 2040 and 2050, which is driven by countries in Africa that demand increasing amounts of petroleum products," EIA said.

-- Meghan Gordon, meghan.gordon@spglobal.com

-- Edited by Keiron Greenhalgh, newsdesk@spglobal.com

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