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IRAQ DATA: June crude exports tumble, show progress on OPEC+ compliance

Highlights

Total exports fall to 3.083 million b/d in June

Both federal, Kurdistan exports sharply lower

Production may be nearing OPEC+ quota

Iraq's crude oil exports, including from the Kurdistan region, fell to 3.083 million b/d in June -- a 497,000 b/d drop from May and the lowest since October 2015 -- indicating it is making significant progress on implementing its OPEC+ production cut.

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The June total, derived from oil ministry data and shipping reports from the Turkish port of Ceyhan, comprises 2.816 million b/d of federally controlled crude exports and 267,000 b/d of crude exported by the Kurdistan Regional Government via Ceyhan. That is down from 3.212 million b/d and 368,000 b/d, respectively, in May.

Exports were last lower in October 2015, when they totaled 2.700 million b/d according to S&P Global Platts records.

Under the OPEC+ agreement, Iraq's production quota is 3.592 million b/d.

Platts estimates domestic consumption, including refinery runs and crude oil burned for power generation, at around 580,000 b/d.

Combining that with the June export figure and assuming no changes in inventory levels provides a figure of 3.663 million b/d, which would be only 71,000 b/d above its quota.

Iraq has long attracted the ire of its OPEC+ counterparts for violating its quota but has agreed to make good on its overproduction in May and June with additional production cuts in July, August and September.

A combination of diplomatic pressure and financial sweeteners from Saudi Arabia and the US appears to have convinced Iraq to improve its quota compliance.