Register with us today

and in less than 60 seconds continue your access to:Latest news headlinesAnalytical topics and featuresCommodities videos, podcast & blogsSample market prices & dataSpecial reportsSubscriber notes & daily commodity email alerts

Already have an account?

Log in to register

Forgot Password

Please Note: Platts Market Center subscribers can only reset passwords via the Platts Market Center

Enter your Email ID below and we will send you an email with your password.

  • Email Address* Please enter email address.

If you are a premium subscriber, we are unable to send you your password for security reasons. Please contact the Client Services team.

If you are a Platts Market Center subscriber, to reset your password go to the Platts Market Center to reset your password.

In this list

Oil market forecasters largely bearish on 2019

Oil | Crude Oil | Storage | Coronavirus

Coronavirus lockdowns put the spotlight on crude oil storage


Platts Market Data – Oil

Oil | Refined Products | Fuel Oil | Shipping | Dry Freight | Marine Fuels | Tankers

Mediterranean Bunker Fuel Conference, 9th Annual

Coal | Emissions | Electric Power | Renewables | Oil | Crude Oil

COP26 climate talks rescheduled for November 2021 in UK's Glasgow

Oil market forecasters largely bearish on 2019

London — The three most closely watched oil market forecasters are all bracing for a significant upsurge in non-OPEC supply growth in 2019 but differ on the extent that global oil supply will outweigh oil demand.

Not registered?

Receive daily email alerts, subscriber notes & personalize your experience.

Register Now

The US Energy Information Administration envisages global demand growth in 2019 rising by 1.49 million b/d to 101.45 b/d, higher than its peers, but its estimate for supply growth is near 2 million b/d.

The market is expected to be in surplus by almost 500,000 b/d in 2019, according to the EIA, as output from OPEC/non-OPEC deal participants and Canada, factoring in sanctions on Venezuelan and Iranian oil flows, will not be enough to offset US supply growth.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency expects oil consumption in 2019 to rise to 100.6 million b/d from 99.2 million b/d last year, growth of 1.4 million b/d.

Unlike other agencies, it sees global demand growing faster this year than in 2018 due to "lower prices and the start-up of petrochemical projects in China and the US."

The IEA, however, said oil markets will still struggle to absorb fast-growing non-OPEC supply despite sanctions on Iran and Venezuela and falling OPEC production in 2019.

In terms of oil demand growth, OPEC was the most bearish in its monthly oil market report, predicting a rise of only 1.24 million b/d, with global consumption at 100 million b/d this year.

The continued strong growth of US shale oil will soften the blow from the recent US sanctions on Venezuela's state-owned oil company PDVSA, the IEA said.

"Even so, headline benchmark crude oil prices have hardly changed on news of the sanctions," the IEA said in its recent monthly market report. "This is because, in terms of crude oil quantity, markets may be able to adjust after initial logistical dislocations."

The EIA had the highest forecast for non-OPEC supply growth in 2018, seeing a rise of 2.57 million b/d. IEA's report suggested an increase of 1.8 million b/d, while OPEC was between the two, with a 2.17 million b/d gain.

OPEC said demand for its own crude in 2019 will fall by 1.02 million b/d on the year in contrast to falls of 400,000 b/d seen by the IEA.

The EIA is even more bearish in its 'call' on OPEC, anticipating it to average 30.3 million b/d, a fall of 1.13 million b/d from the previous year.


World oil demand forecast 2019 100.00 100.60 101.45
Change from 2018 1.24 1.40 1.49
Non-OPEC supply forecast 2019 64.34 64.40 65.79
Change from 2018 2.17 1.80 2.57
OPEC NGLs forecast 2019 5.07 5.60 5.36
Change from 2018 0.09 0.10 0.05
Call on OPEC + stocks 2019 30.59 30.70 30.30
Change from 2018 -1.02 -0.40 -1.13
OPEC crude output in January 30.80 30.83 30.73
Change from Dec 0.80 0.93 0.64
2019 demand growth 1.24 1.40 1.49
2019 supply growth 1.24 1.50 1.98
2019 net demand growth 0.00 -0.10 -0.49

Sources: IEA, EIA, OPEC

-- Eklavya Gupte,

-- Edited by Jonathan Loades-Carter,