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China's apparent oil demand set to slow down after high growth in 2017

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China's apparent oil demand set to slow down after high growth in 2017

Singapore — China's apparent oil demand rose 5.5% year on year to 11.77 million b/d in2017, but analysts said that they expected rising crude prices and ananticipated slowdown in economic growth to take a toll on consumption of oilproducts.

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In addition, as China focuses more on quality and energy efficiency, analystssaid that policy changes would also cap oil consumption.

S&P Global Platts China Oil Analytics expect the apparent oil demand to riseby 500,000 b/d in 2018, equivalent to a year-on-year growth of 4.2%.

This is in line with forecasts by Sinopec's and CNPC's research institutes,saying that oil demand growth would slow from over 5% last year to over 4% in2018.

CNPC's institute expects oil demand growth to slow from 5.9% to 4.6%, based onthe assumption that China's GDP would grow 6.7% in 2018, slower than thegovernment target of 6.9% for 2017.

"Higher oil prices and weaker GDP growth will inevitably lead to weaker oildemand," Bernstein said in a report.

"The focus is shifting from quantity to quality and (from) economic growth toenvironment," it added. "This means energy consumption would be capped due toimproving energy efficiency and tight environmental control."


The growth in oil products consumption in 2017 was led primarily by stronggrowth in LPG and bottom-of-the-barrel fuels, including fuel oil, S&P GlobalPlatts calculations based on official data showed.

China's apparent demand for LPG rose 8.4% on the year in 2017 to 1.71 millionb/d. The 133,000 b/d year-on-year increase accounted for 22% of the country'stotal growth in apparent oil demand, which was at 615,900 b/d.

However, demand growth for LPG is estimated to slow to 6% in 2018 due toweakening demand from MTBE plants. China is promoting the use of E10 gasolinecontaining 10% ethanol, which will gradually replace MTBE.

Two new PDH plants will come online this year, which will increase totalpropylene production capacity by 700,000 mt/year, lower than the 830,000mt/year of incremental propane demand added in 2017.

Meanwhile, demand for fuel oil is expected to continue to be strong in 2018,driven by growing bunker demand, while refinery feedstock demand is expectedto recover because of tighter tax monitoring.

In 2017, apparent demand for fuel oil jumped 11.2% on the year to 797,000 b/d.

Bonded bunker fuel oil supplies from Zhoushan port in eastern Zhejiangprovince surged 30% year on year to 2.4 million mt in 2017, making it thelargest bunkering port in China, according to the provincial communicationdepartment.


Gasoline demand is expected to see downward pressure in 2018 because of growthin alternative and renewable fuels, expansion of vehicle sharing, and risingethanol-based gasoline supply.

Expansion of high-speed rail networks would also hit gasoline and jet fueldemand.

COA said that gasoline demand growth was expected to fall to less than 150,000b/d year on year in 2018, compared with around 200,000 b/d in 2017.

Sinopec's research institute has estimated the supply of gasoline blendingcomponents to see slower growth of around 3% in 2018 amid changes in taxmonitoring rules, down 8 percentage points from 2017.

Sinopec's research institute has estimated the supply of gasoline blendingcomponents to see slower growth of around 3% in 2018 amid changes in taxmonitoring rules, down 8 percentage points from 2017.

China's apparent gasoline demand edged up 0.8% on the year to 2.85 million b/din 2017, S&P Global Platts calculations showed.

For gasoil, some analysts said that growth would be stronger in 2018, whilethe others said that it would be weaker, compared with 3.4 million b/d, up1.5% or 50,000 b/d, in 2017 after declining 5.3% in 2016.

COA expects gasoil demand to grow by 74,000 b/d, or 2.1%, in 2018.

CNPC's research institute expects gasoil demand to fall by 0.2% in 2018, aftera 2% rise in 2017, mainly due to the downturn in the real estate market andthe switch to natural gas-fueled trucks.

"The growth seen in 2017 was due to the low base in 2016, which is hard torepeat in 2018," said a product trader with CNPC.


China's naphtha demand will be closely watched in 2018 as new reformers and asteam cracker in independent and state-owned refineries are set to commenceoperations, bolstering demand for both heavy and light naphtha.

CNOOC and Shell Petrochemicals Company Limited, or CSPC, plans to start a newnaphtha-fed steam cracker, which is estimated to consume more than 300,000mt/month of light naphtha once it starts normal operations, a company sourcesaid.

COA expects China to increase naphtha consumption by 40,000 b/d, or 4%, on theyear in 2018. It would be higher than the growth of 3.3% seen in 2017, whentotal apparent demand was 1 million b/d.

For jet fuel, analysts expect slower apparent demand growth in 2018 due to therelative high base in 2017.

China's jet fuel apparent demand rose 9.6% on the year to 826,000 b/d in 2017,S&P Global Platts calculations showed. COA expects jet fuel demand to grow by39,000 b/d in 2018, slower than the 50,000 b/d increase in 2017.

--Staff reports,