BY CONTINUING TO USE THIS SITE, YOU ARE AGREEING TO OUR USE OF COOKIES. REVIEW OUR
COOKIE NOTICE

Register with us today

and in less than 60 seconds continue your access to:Latest news headlinesAnalytical topics and featuresCommodities videos, podcast & blogsSample market prices & dataSpecial reportsSubscriber notes & daily commodity email alerts

Already have an account?

Log in to register

Forgot Password

Please Note: Platts Market Center subscribers can only reset passwords via the Platts Market Center

Enter your Email ID below and we will send you an email with your password.


  • Email Address* Please enter email address.

If you are a premium subscriber, we are unable to send you your password for security reasons. Please contact the Client Services team.

IF you are a Platts Market Center subscriber, to reset your password go to the�Platts Market Center to reset your password.

In this list
Metals

LME 2018 -- Rising end-use demand, declining mine output to support copper in 2019: CRU

Electric Power | Natural Gas | Oil | Petrochemicals

Market Movers Europe, Dec 10-14: Energy market braces for Brexit vote

Metals | Non-Ferrous | Steel

Platts Market Data - Metals

Agriculture | Electric Power | Natural Gas (North American) | Oil | Metals | Petrochemicals

North American Digital Commodities Summit, 2nd Annual

Metals

ArcelorMittal bemoans lack of EU policy to help reduce steel CO2 emissions

LME 2018 -- Rising end-use demand, declining mine output to support copper in 2019: CRU

London — Rising industrial demand in China and declining mining output will help support copper prices next year, CRU Group research analyst Vanessa Davidson said Monday.

Not registered?

Receive daily email alerts, subscriber notes & personalize your experience.

Register Now

During a presentation at the LME Seminar, held annually in conjunction with LME Week, Davidson said she expected global copper demand to grow 2.9% next year. Historically, copper demand grows about 2% each year.

Demand is being driven by China, which is trying to move away from investment-led growth to more consumer-led growth. Davidson said.

Demand from most end-use sectors in China is expected to remain firm, resulting in copper demand growth of about 3.5% next year, she said.

Tightness in copper scrap supply is also expected to boost Chinese demand for refined copper next year, she added. China severely restricted the flow of copper scrap imports this year after implementing import bans on "Category 7" waste material early in the year.

Copper prices are also likely to be supported by declining mine output, Davidson said.

Global mine output is expected to grow only 1.2% next year compared with about 1.8% this year, she said. "The key factor behind that is a lack of new projects," she said.

No large-scale projects above 100,000 mt/year came online last year and the only such project to come online this year is Toquepala mine expansion in Peru, she said.

"We don't have a growth from new projects coming in 2019. There are some projects due to start up in 2019, but it's important to note that the two largest ones -- the Chiquicamata underground [Chile] and Grasberg block-cave [Indonesia] -- are both replacement projects," she noted.

However, refined output is expected to grow 2.9% next year, as evidenced by the declining supply of blister and concentrate. Chinese smelter and refined output is also expect to continue growing, Davidson said.

As a result, the global refined copper market is expected to end next year with a small surplus of about 100,000 mt, she said.

Taking into account those factors, CRU expects LME three-months copper prices to average $6,420/mt next year, Davidson said.

--Nick Jonson, nick.jonson@spglobal.com

--Edited by Jonathan Loades-Carter, jonathan.carter@spglobal.com