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Poland revises draft energy policy to 2040

Warsaw — Poland plans to reduce coal's share in its generation mix from 80% to 56%-60% in 2030 and raise the share of renewables to 21%-23%, the Ministry of Energy said Friday.

The 2030 targets form part of a revised draft Polish Energy Policy to 2040 (PEP 2040) that the ministry originally published in November last year and has subsequently updated.

The remaining 2030 targets of reducing CO2 emissions by 30% compared to 1990 levels, increasing energy efficiency by 23% in comparison to 2007 levels and building the country's first nuclear capacity by 2033 were unchanged.

The new draft "takes into account many of the [public consultation] comments made and its priority is to preserve the evolutionary nature of the transformation of the Polish energy sector so that it operates in a safe way for people and the economy," energy minister Krzysztof Tchorzewski said. Tchorzewski told the state news agency the estimated total cost for transforming the energy sector was Eur140 billion.

ONSHORE WIND REPRIEVE

The biggest change to the revised draft is the decision to withdraw from a phase out of onshore wind capacity.

Last year's draft policy had installed onshore wind capacity falling from a high of 7 GW in 2025 to just 0.8 GW in 2040.

The revised draft forecasts capacity reaching a high of 9.497 GW in 2020 and increasing slightly to 9.761 GW in 2040.

Wider RES growth is to be achieved through the rapidly developing PV market and the construction of the first offshore wind farms in the Polish part of the Baltic Sea. However both capacity estimates for 2040 have been revised downwards, PV from 20 GW to 16 GW and offshore from 10 GW to 8 GW.

The revised policy estimates RES' share in energy consumption could reach 32% by 2040 if energy storage is developed and more gas-fired plant is built.

NUCLEAR TARGET CUT

The main tool for reducing CO2 emissions will be construction of Poland's first nuclear reactors, although the 2040 target for nuclear capacity is now less ambitious, falling from 5.6 GW to 3.9 GW.

The ministry expects to reach a lower share of coal mainly through phasing out lignite-fired plant, with open pit resources scheduled to be largely exhausted by 2040.

The new draft foresees lignite capacity falling more slowly, from 8.64 GW to 3.4 GW in 2040, instead of 1.5 GW. Similarly, existing and planned new hard coal capacity is expected to fall from a high of 15.6 GW in 2020 to 7.63 GW in 2040, instead of 6.7 GW as envisaged in the previous draft.

In gas-fired capacity, the ministry now forecasts much higher growth in CHP plant. Total gas-fired capacity is still expected to reach about 12.4 GW in 2040, but CHPs are now forecast to account for 5.26 GW of the total, instead of 2.75 GW.

The revised draft energy policy has been sent out for public consultation until November 29.

-- Henry Edwardes-Evans, Henry.Edwardes-Evans@spglobal.com

-- Adam Easton, newsdesk@spglobal.com

-- Edited by Henry Edwardes-Evans, newsdesk@spglobal.com