London — Global annual additions of solar PV capacity are expected in a steady range of 100 GW over 2020-25, according to a Monday report from S&P Global Platts Analytics.

Solar additions were down 10% on the year in the first half of 2019 across major markets following a year of stalling growth, with the fall largely attributable to China, it said.

Overall, the report assumes 2019 additions little changed on the year in the 97-98 GW range on an expected rebound in China.

Thereafter, global annual solar additions are set to rise 1% a year over 2020-25.

This would add over 600 GW by 2025, doubling current installed solar capacity with the 1 TW mark reached around end-2023.

"As utility-scale PV projects are increasingly exposed to market conditions, the prospects of a deteriorating macro-economic environment, with lower power-demand growth and lower fuel prices, could ultimately undermine risk appetite for solar developers and, therefore, solar PV capacity growth in the medium-term," the report's lead author, Bruno Brunetti, said.

CHINA STILL DOMINATES SOLAR

Over 40% of new additions are still expected to be installed in China over the period. The US, Europe and India are expected to account for around 10% each.

"While Chinese annual installations will stay flat, growth will be largely tied to strengthening additions in Europe, the US and eventually India," the report said.

Emerging markets will also shape the pace of PV growth in the medium term with over 20% to be added outside the five biggest markets (including Japan).

Chinese solar growth plunged by around 50% in H1 2019 in the aftermath of the 2018 policy shift, it said.

However, Platts Analytics expects installations to rebound in H2 after China recently green-lighted 22.7 GW of solar PV projects to be commissioned by end-2019, with the 40-GW forecast for 2019 down just 10% on year.

For the US market, the analysts upgraded their forecast to 12 GW/year utility-scale and 2.5 GW/year smaller distributed capacity for 2020-25.

For Europe, the report also lifted the five-year outlook, but remains conservative relative to the European solar association Solar Power Europe, it said.

India's solar ambitions have faced some headwinds currently, but the country is still expected to add 12 GW/year over 2023-25, it said.

Across other emerging markets, some 30 GW of utility-scale solar PV projects are currently planned or already under construction, it said, with Africa, Latin America (Chile and Brazil), South East Asia and the Middle East of particular interest.

Global solar PV module prices have stabilized, but are still some 13% lower on the year, the report said, with solar's steep drop in cost spurring growth despite policy uncertainty.

-- Andreas Franke, andreas.franke@spglobal.com

-- Edited by Jonathan Dart, newsdesk@spglobal.com