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Analysis: NYISO forecasts summer 2019 peak demand of 32,383 MW, 5% below all-time level

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Analysis: NYISO forecasts summer 2019 peak demand of 32,383 MW, 5% below all-time level

Highlights

2019 summer forward prices higher than 2018 forwards

Forecast winter 2019 peak demand of 24,135 MW

New York — The New York Independent System Operator's survey of installed capacity and load maintenance for summer and winter 2019 forecasts a 32,383-MW summer peak and 24,135-MW winter peak, with summer forward packages trading higher than in 2018.

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The Installed Capacity and Load Maintenance Survey uses an updated load forecast for the summer and winter peak loads and the data is based on the forecasts provided by the transmission owners and municipals in accordance with NYISO installed capacity (ICAP) market procedures, according to the grid operator. It was posted to the NYISO website Friday.

The ICAP market maintains bulk power system reliability by procuring sufficient resource capability to meet expected maximum energy needs plus an installed reserve margin.

In New York, peak demand occurs during the summer when heat waves prompt greater air conditioning use. The highest recorded peak demand in New York of 33,956 MW occurred in July 2013 and New York's record winter peak demand of 25,738 MW was recorded in January 2014, according to NYISO's 2018 Power Trends report.

FORWARD PRICES

The 2019 forecast peak demand is 5% below the all-time peak from 2013. The NYISO Zone J on-peak July 2019 forward price was $48.85/MWh on February 28, according to S&P Global Platts, while the NYISO Zone J on-peak July 2018 forward price was $44.60/MWh on February 28, 2018. Zone J covers New York City, which has some of the state's highest demand.

NYISO Zone J on-peak August 2019 forward prices have also been trading at higher levels than last year.

Capacity contracts represent the amount of installed capacity needed to meet 117% of the New York Control Area peak load forecast for the summer peak load, according to the NYISO. For the summer of 2019, 37,888 MW is required based on the 32,383 MW peak summer load forecast.

In the weeks preceding the summer peak load exposure interval, which extends from June 23 until August 25, "unusual weather patterns have resulted in significantly higher than expected NYCA loads," according to the installed capacity survey. The forecast load curve for 2019 reflects the NYCA's exposure to the potential occurrence of early season high-load levels, the survey said.

Generation resources are assumed to suffer unplanned outages at the rate of 4.78% of the total installed capacity contracts for the NYCA and in addition to the average unplanned outage volume, a 655 MW value is included to ensure sufficient ICAP resources are available if the largest ICAP resource becomes unavailable, the survey explained.

This results in an unplanned outage amount of 2,466 MW based on the 32,383 MW peak summer load forecast.

During the winter peak period which runs from December through February, a 6,531 MW value is included to account for cold weather operations. This reflects loss of gas due to heating load, fuel delivery issues and cold weather equipment issues related to extreme temperatures, according to the survey.

The weekly forecast load curve between exposure intervals is determined by historical weekly peak actual load data, the survey said.

-- Jared Anderson, jared.anderson@spglobal.com

-- Edited by Richard Rubin, newsdesk@spglobal.com