The US Department of Agriculture has scaled down its global wheat output estimate in the marketing year 2021-22 to 775.9 million mt, down 4.4 million mt from 780.3 million mt a month ago, according to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released Oct. 12.
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Output is seen declining from a likely reduction in production from the US, Canada, Middle East, and Kazakhstan, the report said.
For the US, the agency sees wheat output in MY 2021-22 at 44.8 million mt, down from 46.2 million mt. Canada's wheat crop in MY 2021-22 is seen declining to 21 million mt from 23 million mt seen a month ago.
The USDA has scaled down its estimate for wheat output in the Middle East to 18.99 million mt from 20.49 million mt seen a month ago.
For Kazakhstan, it sees the wheat crop size falling to 12 million mt against 12.5 million mt pegged in the previous update.
However, the USDA has kept its estimate unchanged for Russia, Ukraine, and Australia's wheat projection for MY 2021-22.
Its projection for Russian wheat output remains 72.5 million mt, while it maintained Ukraine's wheat production at 33 million mt and Australia's wheat output projection at 31.5 million mt.
On the contrary, USDA has increased European Union's wheat production projection marginally to 139.4 million mt from 139 million mt.
In line with the declining output, global ending stocks for 2021-22 are seen falling to 277.2 million mt, down 6 million mt from 283.2 million mt seen earlier.
Consumption and trade
The USDA has scaled down its estimate for global wheat consumption for MY 2021-22 to 787.1 million mt, down 2.5 million mt from 789.6 million mt seen earlier.
The likely decline in consumption is expected because of a fall in usage in the US, Canada, Australia, India, and Southeast Asia.
The USDA has reduced the US' wheat consumption projection to 31.6 million mt from 32.3 million mt.
For Australia, USDA cut the usage estimate in MY 2021-22 to 8 million mt from 8.2 million mt. It sees wheat consumption in Canada falling to 7.9 million mt against 8 million mt seen earlier.
But for Russia, it has increased wheat consumption in MY 2021-22 to 40.5 million mt from 40 million mt seen last month.
The USDA has scaled down its estimate for global wheat exports marginally to 199.6 million mt from 199.7 million mt seen earlier, led by a decline in shipments from Canada. But the fall was offset by slight increases for Australia and the EU.
For Canada, the export projection for Canada is seen at 15 million mt for MY 2021-22, down from 17 million mt seen earlier.
The USDA increased the exports projection for Australia and the EU to 23.5 million mt and 35.5 million mt, respectively.