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USDA raises US corn production estimate to 13.692 billion bushels

Highlights

USDA ups 2019-20 US corn yield estimates to 168 bu/acre from 167 bu/acre

USDA cuts US 2019-20 corn harvested acreage to 81.5 million acres

USDA cuts US corn 2019-20 ending stocks estimate to 1.892 billion bu

New Delhi — The US Department of Agriculture raised US corn production estimates for the marketing year 2019-20 (September-August) to 13.692 billion bushels (347.78 million mt) from its December estimate of 13.661 billion bushels, it said in the January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Friday.

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Estimates for corn acreage, and harvested acres in the US were lowered to 89.7 million acres and 81.5 million acres from their December forecast of 89.9 million acres and 81.8 million acres, respectively.

Estimated yield for US corn was raised to 168 bu/acre, from the December forecast of 167 bu/acre, resulting in higher production estimates, the report said.

"Corn production is estimated up 31 million bushels as a higher yield more than offsets a reduction in harvested area," the USDA report said.

The production and acreage estimates for US corn in the WASDE report is similar to the estimates in the annual US crop production forecast by National Agricultural Statistics Service, also released Friday.

The January WASDE is often considered as the final US crop estimate for the season, and it usually incorporates annual crop production forecast by the NASS.

The USDA lowered the estimates for ending stocks of corn for the US to 1.892 billion bushels, from 1.910 billion bushels estimated in December.

"With use rising more than supply, 2019-20 corn stocks are reduced 18 million bushels," USDA said.

The agency maintained its estimates for corn used for ethanol at 5.375 billion bushels estimated earlier in December.

Exports of corn from the US are estimated at 1.775 billion bushels in January, lower than USDA's previous forecast of 1.85 billion bushels.

"Exports are reduced 75 million bushels reflecting the slow pace of shipments through December, and the lowest level of outstanding sales as of early January since the 2012-2013 marketing year," USDA said.

The agency raised its estimates for feed use in the US by 250 million bushels to 5.275 billion bushels.

Market participants previously said they expected USDA to cut down its estimate for US corn harvested acreage due to snow in some parts of the country that prevented harvest.

Market participants were also expecting a cut in the country's corn production estimates and estimates for ending stocks.

US CORN ESTIMATES 2018-2019

The USDA also made some major changes in corn estimates for 2018-2019 marketing year.

The department lowered US corn production estimates for the marketing year 2018-19 to 14.34 billion bushels from its previous estimate of 14.42 billion bushels.

It also lowered its estimates for corn acreage, and harvested acres in the US in 2018-19 to 88.9 million acres and 81.3 million acres from previous forecast of 89.1 million acres and 81.7 million acres, respectively.

SOUTH AMERICAN CORN EXPORTS

USDA raised its estimates for corn exports from Brazil for 2018-19 to 42 million mt from the previous estimate of 41 million mt in December. Export estimates from Argentina from the period were maintained at 36 million mt.

According to USDA, the 2018-19 local marketing year in Brazil and Argentina runs through March 2019-February 2020.

For 2019-20 marketing year, Brazil corn exports are kept unchanged at 36 million mt estimated last month and so are the exports from Argentina at 33.5 million mt.

USDA also maintained its production forecast for Brazil and Argentina in 2019-20 at 101 million mt and 50 million mt, respectively.

The agency has cut Brazil's ending stock for corn in 2019-20 to 4.58 million mt, from 5.08 million mt estimated earlier.

GLOBAL CORN

The department lowered its estimates for global ending stocks for corn in 2019-20 to 297.81 million mt from 300.56 million mt estimated earlier.

The USDA also lowered the forecast for global corn imports in 2019-2020 marginally to 167.42 million mt in January from the previous estimate of 167.56 million mt. Export estimates have also been lowered to 165.64 million mt from 166.64 million mt estimated earlier.

The USDA raised global corn production estimate for 2019-20 slightly to 1.111 billion mt from 1.108 billion mt projected earlier in December.