US-Canada trade negotiations pressure metals prices higher

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The US steel market is facing pressure from trade relations with its northern neighbor. 

Talks between the US and Canada collapsed in August, triggering a fresh round of tariffs and countermeasures.

In September, Washington added some Canadian steel and aluminum products to its latest tariff package, pushing effective duties on some imports to as much as 100%.

Why does this matter?

Canada is a critical supplier of metals and minerals to the US, accounting for nearly 18% of imports in 2024. 

The knock-on effects of the tariffs are wide: US aluminum exporters fear they could lose customers. And on the Canadian side, industry leaders warned of higher prices without alternative supplies, as well as rising cost inputs for miners. 

US hot-rolled coil prices were already steadily rising in 2026, pressured by lower import volumes.

Delivered and ex-works hot-rolled coil prices hit four-year highs in mid-September after the Trump administration’s 100% tariffs went into effect.

Even if a trade deal is reached, market players have warned that it wouldn’t necessarily bring bearish sentiment - more likely, it would introduce a price ceiling.

What’s more, Canadian mill order books are already closed, meaning the US wouldn’t receive imports until late Q1.

But all of that depends on further negotiations.