Plunging ammonia: what’s driving the current price fall?

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Ammonia prices across East of Suez region have collapsed, falling more than 40% from their April peak. What’s driving this sharp retreat?

Weak Indian demand is pressuring prices, overshadowing a previous supply shock that boosted the market.

Conflict in the Middle East – which supplied 80% of India’s ammonia imports in 2025 – disrupted supply in April this year.

CFR East and West Coast India prices rose to $885/mt, a record high.

But, by August, prices had fallen to around $500 levels on both coasts, with West Coast India alone dropping nearly 5% in a single day on August 13.

The market has now shifted from a supply-driven rally to a demand-driven decline.

Indian buyers are struggling to obtain sulfur, a key ingredient in phosphate fertilizers, while ammonia demand has weakened.

Weak Indian demand is also weighing on other East of Suez markets.

So, can Indian demand recover and put a floor to the current ammonia price drop, or will continued weak buying keep prices under pressure across East of Suez region in the months ahead?