Brazil mulls higher antidumping duty for US PE, stifling demand

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From the largest market share to virtually no demand -- this has become the situation for US polyethylene in Brazil after news that an antidumping duty could exceed $700/metric ton.

The Brazilian market already faced a provisional antidumping duty of $200/mt from August 2025 to February 2026.

Although its market share fell in that period, US products still accounted for just over half of Brazil's total polyethylene imports in January 2026, but in February, that share fell to 37%.

The turning point? In February, Brazil published a technical review of the dumping investigation, calculating the margins at $734/mt. But the investigation may not be concluded until May.

Amid these uncertainties, market sources have reported zero demand for US material.

HDPE film import prices in Brazil have risen since the start of 2026.

Meanwhile, imports from alternative suppliers such as Argentina, Saudi Arabia and Egypt have been increasing.

The question that remains is: how would this reordering look without the supplier that currently holds a third of the market?