Recycled polymers bearish as Venezuelan crude may pressure virgin-recycled price spread

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After a weak 2025 marked by low demand, the global recycled polymer market faces an increasingly bearish outlook should Venezuelan crude barrels enter the wider market.

Oil production and polymer resin prices are connected - the more crude in the global market, the narrower the price gap between virgin and recycled resin.

For now, the outlook for Venezuelan crude supply moving into the global market remains unclear, but US President Trump has pledged to secure $100 billion in investments in Venezuelan production.

Recycled resin prices have already started the new year low. US post-consumer natural HDPE bale prices in January were nearly 50% below their 2025 peak.

Meanwhile, HDPE virgin resin prices were 15%-18% lower than their 2025 peak in January.

If Venezuelan oil production ramps up, it could drive resin prices even lower, and this could further depress already struggling demand for recycled resin.

This has left polymer market players questioning: as the global oil markets shift, who will choose to buy recycled material if virgin resin becomes even cheaper?