North America container market split on peak‑season outlook as capacity tightens, fuel drives pricing

North America's container market is sending conflicting signals heading into mid‑May, with some forwarders reporting early signs of peak‑season strength, including tight space, and strong bookings, while others say demand remains too soft to justify general rate increases.

The result is a market divided between early‑peak optimism and fuel‑driven caution, even as carriers continue to manage capacity aggressively across all major coasts.

Forwarders say they are still finalizing contracts and "transitioning into getting the business moving," but few are willing to call a clear upswing.

Another freight forwarder described being "back and forth on a May rebound," noting that the early‑May holiday period in Asia has slowed cargo readiness and could delay any bounce‑back until later in the month.

Capacity tightening across all US coasts

Carriers have kept supply tight across the PSW, PNW, and USEC, relying on blank sailings and smaller vessels to manage capacity even as demand remains insufficient to support broad rate increases.

On the West Coast, there were six blank sailings in the first week of May and seven expected in the second week. Additionally, on the East Coast, there were four to five blank sailings per week, which kept weekly capacity constrained.

Ocean Alliance carriers report full vessels and growing roll pools, with some of the tightest conditions on Panama‑route services. "They're full," one forwarder said, adding that May 1 increases were applied mainly by Premier Alliance carriers with limited space.

Another source said June allocations are already full, with bookings strong enough that "there's no space in the next two weeks," even though overall demand remains far from peak‑season levels.

New signals: Early peak‑season chatter

A separate forwarder said they are now hearing about extra loaders on the trans‑Pacific, including indications that Maersk has announced one, though details remain limited. Despite that, the source said space remains very tight, and multiple carriers are preparing GRIs in the coming weeks.

"Same here too," the source said. "Space is tight, and GRI's are coming — but demand hasn't changed at all."

Yet this same source reported a sharp uptick among their own customer base, "Demand is going up a lot among our clients and prospects."

When asked whether this could signal the start of peak season, the source said peak season had already started.

They expect the season to officially begin June 1, with the potential to extend deeper into summer depending on war‑related disruptions, interest‑rate movements, oil prices, and tariff stability. "Tariffs stabilizing also helps," they said.

Mixed bookings, no pushback

A Canadian‑based source offered a notably different view of the market, reporting no pushback on current levels and saying opportunity rates remain high.

"They're thinking it's an indication the market is strong and pushing for more," the source said, though they added they "haven't heard the higher numbers" circulating elsewhere.

This perspective stands in contrast to US‑based forwarders who say demand is not strong enough to justify GRIs.

Across the market, sources emphasized that fuel is the only real driver of pricing right now.

Carriers' May 1 actions — including all‑in fuel adjustments — were described as "outright for fuel," with many lines shifting to monthly bunker programs on the trans‑Pacific. Some carriers are rolling fuel into ocean freight on FAK business, while others are breaking it out separately, creating wide variation in all‑in levels.

One source noted that while carriers are pushing a May 15 increase, it is expected to be small and driven entirely by fuel. "There's nothing driving application for a GRI," the source said. "Demand isn't enough."

Spot container rates have already started to increase as Platts assessed North Asia to West Coast North America at $2,900/FEU May 12, up $100 on the day.

The North Asia to East Coast North America rates also rose $100 on the day to $3,900/FEU.

Little rate movement as shippers stick with existing contracts

Shippers are extending old contracts, with little movement in base rates. Across the board, forwarders report highly variant all‑in pricing due to fuel surcharges and other add‑ons — a trend more pronounced in long‑term negotiations.

"Everyone has these additional add‑ons," one freight forwarder said. "It's more prevalent on long‑term rate talks than on Freight of All Kind."

Despite the noise around capacity, most forwarders say space is available for those booking early. "The industry is booking well enough ahead," one source said. "That's why vessels look full."

Market sentiment remains cautious with no market participants expects a strong peak season, and several said they do not believe 2026 will outperform 2025. "It'll be flat or below," one forwarder said.

While some expect a modest bounce after the May holiday period, others see no evidence of a surge forming.

"No one's talking about surging," a forwarder said. "Everyone's talking about fuel."

The combination of tight capacity, fuel‑driven pricing, and uncertain demand has left the market split — with some carriers reporting strong bookings and others seeing little justification for rate hikes — and waiting to see whether late May or June brings a measurable pickup.