European jet fuel prices break new record on fears of escalating Middle East war

European jet fuel flat prices rose to an all-time high April 2, driven by new record highs for the ICE low-sulfur gasoil futures contract, after US President Donald Trump's comments stoked fears of further escalation in the Middle East war.

The Jet CIF NWE cargo flat price rose $232.25/mt day over day to $1,842.50/mt. Barges rose $206/mt day over day to $1,786/mt. Since the war broke out, jet fuel prices have been about twice their 2025 levels and have broken all-time records multiple times.

The front-month ICE LSGO contract hit a record high of $1,569.50/mt at 12:30 BST on April 2, up 15% from the previous day, in an early Platts assessment process ahead of the European Easter break. Platts is part of S&P Global Energy.

The contract serves as the primary global benchmark for diesel and middle distillate pricing, reflecting the physical delivery of barges into Northwest Europe. Its previous record high occurred on March 9, 2022, following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, when the benchmark was assessed at $1,546.75/mt at the 1630 close.

Prices have been trending higher over the past month, after US and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28 triggered a wave of counterattacks that brought shipping traffic to a virtual standstill in the Strait of Hormuz.

In an address April 1, President Trump said the US would hit Iran "extremely hard over the next two to three weeks," dimming hopes of a swift de-escalation.

Jet fuel has been most affected by the war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, as Europe heavily relied on the Middle East for its jet fuel supply. Europe imported more than half of all its jet fuel from the Middle East in 2025.

The European jet market has also seen increasing tightness as flows from India, another major supplier, plummeted after the EU's latest sanctions package on Russian-origin refined products came into effect on Jan. 22.

"There are no exports from Asia--Asian refineries are not producing for export, and China banned exports," a Europe-based trader said.

"I think there are some vessels that are diverting East due to the higher prices," the trader said.

As the market tightens amid supply disruptions from the Middle East, market participants expect some resupply from the US and West Africa in the coming weeks, but it is unlikely to be enough to meet summer holiday demand.

"There is some resupply coming from the US, the arbitrage is very wide, and there is also Dangote," a Europe-based jet trader said.

No exports from the US to Europe have been observed since January, according to CAS data. About 135,000 mt of jet fuel was loaded in March in West Africa for discharge into Europe.

Trade sources expect demand destruction in the market, as flights are canceled due to high fuel prices and consumers cut back on spending as flights are considered a discretionary expense.