VLCC rates rebound in H1 Jan on fleet consolidation, strong demand

Asian VLCC spot rates have staged a rebound over the first half of January from a decline in the second half of December, according to data from Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, driven by surging demand from longer‑haul voyages and strong time charter sentiment.

The Persian Gulf-China benchmark freight rate rose 73.8% to w93 or $19.24/mt by Jan. 13, up from w53.5 or $11.07/mt on Jan. 2, according to Platts data. This rebound followed a steep decline earlier, when the rate dropped from $27.84/mt on Dec. 12 to $10.03/mt by Jan. 3.

Atlantic Basin crude flowing into Asia has boosted demand, and structural changes in the spot market have also played a key role in keeping the VLCC sector resilient, according to multiple shipowners, charterers and brokers.

Fleet consolidation accelerates

Fleet consolidation is also bolstering the VLCC market.

Sinokor's VLCC presence is poised for a significant increase, with its fleet estimated to have 45 ships by December 2025. The company pursued up to 30 VLCC acquisitions, with 24 deals confirmed, and added seven VLCC charter-ins in late 2025 and early 2026, potentially raising its total exposure to over 80 ships, according to multiple VLCC broker estimates.

Sinokor declined a request for comment from Platts.

If this scale is achieved, the six largest VLCC owners would collectively control just under 300 ships out of a global fleet of approximately 900, concentrating roughly 30% of VLCC capacity among these six shipowners.

Time-charter rates boost confidence

Firm time-charter rates are supporting shipowners' sentiment.

One-year time-charter rates for scrubber-fitted VLCCs are currently in the high-$50,000/day range, while three-year rates are in the low- to mid-$50,000/day range, according to a shipbroker.

"One-year TC is at the highs, and I've rarely seen time charter rates hold at such elevated levels for this long," a VLCC owner said.

With roughly 30%-35% of the VLCC fleet expected to be over 18 years old by the second half of 2026, fundamentals remain supportive, prompting some owners to consider taking positions, the source added.

Cargo owners secure ships

The traditional lines between shipowners and charterers are also shifting. Historically, shipowners have been naturally long freight, while cargo interests were short, with charterers primarily focused on reducing transport costs. However, this divide is increasingly blurring as cargo owners expand their roles as shipowners or operators, according to multiple owners, charterers and brokers.

Charterers are now seeking to own or operate more VLCCs to improve flexibility in crude trading and re-let tonnage when market conditions are favorable. As a result, some charterers may no longer be in a straightforward position to consistently push freight rates lower, the sources said.

Elevated Platts TCE indexes

While the market dynamics have shifted, freight indexes have remained robust. The Platts Global VLCC TCE indexes continue to show strength, with the non-scrubber, non-eco (GVI 7) index holding above $50,000/day since Sept. 5, 2025, and the scrubber-fitted, eco (GVI 7S) index staying above $50,000/day since Aug. 26, 2025.

Since the indexes were launched on March 1, 2024, GVI 7 has registered 32 trading days priced above $100,000/day in 2025, compared to a 2024 peak of $55,536/day on March 18, 2024. GVI 7S has logged 39 trading days with daily revenues exceeding $100,000 in 2025, with a 2024 high of $70,126/day on March 18, 2024.