US summer driving season could tighten European jet fuel supply: experts

The onset of the US summer driving season threatens to tighten jet fuel supply in Europe, as refiners face a choice between maximizing road or aviation fuel yields, according to industry experts.

The US sent 22,000 barrels/day of jet fuel to Europe in the second quarter of 2025 and 20,000 b/d in Q3, according to data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea. This figure has soared in 2026 amid the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and surging jet fuel cracks. In Q2 2026, the US has been sending 107,000 b/d, CAS data showed.

"When you make more jet fuel, you make it at the expense of something else, and so it could well be that when we go into driving season, that's going to ask some big questions," Samuel Peppiatt, global head of jet fuel at Trafigura, said May 13 at the International Air Transport Association's Aviation Energy Forum in Paris.

Gasoline could wrest some share of refinery yields from jet, Eleanor Budds, director of fuels and refining research at S&P Global Energy, said May 13. "When we talk about refineries increasing or maximizing jet fuel output and middle distillate output, it always comes at the expense of other product output, and we're going into the season where US gasoline demand becomes really high in Europe as well," Budds said.

The Middle East typically accounts for 37% of European jet fuel imports, analysts at S&P Global Energy CERA said April 11. The war in the Middle East has cut off a chunk of supply accordingly, and jet fuel cracks have jumped.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, last assessed jet fuel cargoes on a CIF basis in Northwest Europe against Dated Brent at $59.45/barrel May 12, up 73% from Feb. 27, before the war started.

Although the jet fuel production loss at just under 9% of global jet demand is "benign," major jet-importing regions such as parts of Asia and Europe are affected disproportionately, Roberto Sieber, CEO of BlackBarrel Advisors and former chief economist at Shell Trading, said May 13.

This comes amid wider pressure on refinery output. The International Energy Agency said May 13 that it expects Q2 global refinery throughput to "plunge" by 4.5 million b/d year over year to 78.7 million b/d as operators contend with infrastructure damage, export restrictions and lower feedstock availability.

The agency also cut its full-year 2026 global refinery runs forecast to 82.3 million b/d from 82.9 million b/d, representing a 1.6-million-b/d drop year over year.

The refining capacity crunch comes as vacuum gasoil -- a key feedstock used to produce both gasoline and middle distillates -- becomes increasingly scarce, forcing refiners to prioritize which products to manufacture.

"I think as we approach driving season, VGO availability will start to become an issue," Lane Gary K. Simmons, executive vice president and COO of US refiner Valero, said on an April 30 earnings call. "It doesn't appear there's sufficient VGO to fill both FCC [fluid catalytic cracker] and hydrocracking capacity."