Asia's high sulfur fuel oil cash differentials surge to highest since IMO 2020

The ongoing disruption in oil flows due to the US-Israel war with Iran has pushed Asia's benchmark high sulfur fuel oil cash differentials to their highest levels since the International Maritime Organization prohibited ships from using fuels with more than 0.5% sulfur starting January 2020, unless they were equipped with exhaust-cleaning devices known as scrubbers.

The war, which has restricted shipments from the Persian Gulf, has significantly tightened fuel oil supplies in Asia at a time, when bunkering activity is witnessing a natural upswing as ships increasingly divert their routes to avoid the conflict zones with some opting to anchor in the largest bunkering hub of Singapore and nearby anchorages, increasing local fuel demand and tightening supplies further, multiple shipping and fuel oil trade sources said.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the Singapore 380 CST HSFO with 3.5% sulfur cargo's cash differential to the MOPS 380 CST HSFO assessment at a premium of $60.10/metric ton at the Asian close March 10, up from $59.82/mt on March 9, posting a gain of 86% so far this week.

The benchmark 380 CST HSFO cash differential, which has been riding on consistently competitive buying interests in the physical market since the war started, is currently at its highest premium since Sept. 17, 2019, when it was last assessed higher at $61.92/mt, Platts data showed.

"The market is in a panic mode. So much supply comes from the Middle East. It's quite obvious Singapore, and the wider Asian region will get very tight on fuel oil supplies as long as the war goes on," said a Singapore-based HSFO trader.

"It's not just the drop in fuel oil supplies. The lack of access to Middle East crude would mean refiners will be looking for HSFO as feedstock even if the refining margins are not that great, unless they are forced to cut production," he added.

Before the war with Iran began, China's inability to procure Venezuelan crude after US forces seized the country's oil resources had already increased demand for high sulfur straight run fuel oil, which lifted the Asian HSFO fundamentals earlier, and now the situation has worsened, several market sources told Platts.

The 180 CST HSFO grade, which is usually not used as a bunker fuel, typically finds support from power generation demand during the peak summer months in South Asian countries such as Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, but the fundamentals of the comparatively cleaner HSFO grade have also jumped over the last few sessions amid tightening supplies.

Platts assessed the Singapore 180 CST HSFO cash differential to the MOPS 180 CST HSFO assessment at a premium of $56.06/mt at the Asian close March 10, down $3.82/mt day over day, but still within close sight of $59.88/mt on March 9, which was the peak since Sept. 17, 2019, when it was last assessed higher at $60.94/mt, Platts data showed.

"The HSFO barging delivered [premium] in Singapore is quite high. And the spread between ex-wharf and delivered is also so high. It's still mainly the Middle East... Those barrels cannot come," said another Singapore-based trader, adding that at least 800,000 mt of HSFO that were scheduled for Singapore remains stuck.

Many ships that cannot or do not want to go to the UAE's bunkering hub in Fujairah are heading toward Singapore, which adds some additional demand on the bunker side, according to market sources.

The market remains worried primarily about replenishment cargoes, as robust downstream bunker demand would draw down existing stockpiles in the region, sources said.

"April is looking a bit unstable... It's like no one's ready to offer," one bunker trader said, adding that a lot of suppliers were opting to stay on the sidelines and waiting for direction, while another bunker trader said "people are holding back because the replenishment is getting quite expensive... For the April term, we're not really selling as of now and holding back just to make sure of the replenishment cargoes."

The Singapore-delivered HSFO bunker premium surged to $228.73/mt on March 10, up $17.02/mt day over day to a record high, according to data compiled by Platts since 2012.

Delivered premiums were elevated amid limited prompt availability, driven by tight cargo supply and expectations of delayed future arrivals.

Singapore's location along the Strait of Malacca shipping corridor often positions it as a waiting area or operational hub for ships adjusting voyage plans during geopolitical disruptions. This was seen in 2024 when Houthi attacks in the Red Sea triggered the worst port congestion in Singapore since the pandemic, a Singapore-based maritime market participant said.