Asia's LSFO cash premium at record high as Middle East war triggers supply woes

Asia's low sulfur fuel oil cash differentials surged to an all-time high as the US-Israel war with Iran cut Middle East supplies, prompted Asian refiners to trim production, and led countries to hold back near-term exports to safeguard their oil reserves.

Platts assessed the cash differential for Singapore marine fuel 0.5%S cargo over the Mean of Platts Singapore marine fuel 0.5%S assessment at a premium of $123.42/metric ton at the Asian close March 9, an increase of nearly 141% day over day from $51.25/mt on March 6, lifted by competitive bids for late-March and early-April loading physical cargoes.

The marine fuel cash differential, which has now firmed for eight consecutive sessions, was at its highest level on record, according to Platts data going back to May 2019, even before the International Maritime Organization's 'IMO 2020' regulations capped sulfur emissions from ships starting Jan. 1, 2020.

When the US-Israel war with Iran started, the initial expectation was that the high sulfur fuel oil market would be affected more than the low sulfur grades, but IMO 2020-compliant marine fuel fundamentals spiked over the last few sessions as concerns over near-term supply disruptions became more pronounced, with higher freight rates making arbitrage shipments from other regions unviable and refiners cutting rates due to the lack of Middle East crude supplies, multiple trade sources told Platts.

"I think the [0.5%S marine fuel] cash differential will go even higher ... The market is not looking good," said a Singapore-based trader, adding that although the Rotterdam-Singapore spread has widened, making the arbitrage window look theoretically open on paper, no one is able to move cargoes due to the steep freight prices. "Also, the countries within Asia will be holding their supplies for their own energy security, and that'll be tightening the availability of supplies further," he said.

"The near-term LSFO supplies are definitely concerning," said another Asia-based trader, who added that, especially for LSFO it's more of a not-even-enough stock kind of a situation at present with some ex-wharf selling at premiums over $100/mt.

Refiners in China cutting runs due to the lack of prompt availability of feedstock crude would lead to import demand from term bunker suppliers in China, which would mean even higher demand for the already tight Singapore market, according to Singapore-based market sources.

In terms of Middle East LSFO supplies, the main concern is the usual shipments from Kuwait to Singapore, sources said, after Kuwait Petroleum Corp. reduced throughput at its refineries in light of attacks on the country by Iran and Iranian threats against safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the company said in a March 7 statement.

"Also, now refineries are also competing for the sweet crude. That will add some tightness for the 0.5%S marine fuel blend stocks. Some of the sweet crude is used for LSFO blending, so this would mean fewer components in the marine fuel blending pool," said another Singapore-based trader.

Robust downstream bunker demand fuels fundamentals further

Singapore bunker prices have been surging since the outbreak of the Middle East war, outpacing the rise in fuel oil prices.

Platts assessed Singapore-delivered LSFO bunkers at a premium of $209.85/mt to the benchmark FOB Singapore Marine Fuel 0.5%S cargo March 9, sharply higher from $13.83/mt Feb. 27, while Singapore-delivered HSFO bunker premiums against the benchmark FOB Singapore 380 CST assessment stood at $211.71/mt March 9, compared with $9.34/mt Feb. 27.

Most suppliers in Singapore had no prompt delivery slots available for LSFO supply. "Cargo [is the] main issue, [expectation of] future cargoes actually," a Singapore-based bunker trader said.

Bunkering activity in Singapore is expected to rise further as shipowners could choose to park ships in the world's largest bunkering hub as the Middle East war continues, even as prolonged conflicts could eventually lead to a more acute supply shortage in Singapore, several bunker market participants said.

Singapore's position along the Strait of Malacca shipping corridor means it often serves as a waiting area or operational hub for ships adjusting voyage plans amid geopolitical disruptions, as was the case in 2024, when Houthi attacks in the Red Sea caused the worst port congestion in Singapore since the pandemic, a Singapore-based maritime market participant said.

"A lot of inquiries are flooding into Singapore. Many [buyers] asking Out-Port Limits and Pasir Gudang to compare [with] Singapore availability as well," said another Singapore-based bunker trader.