Belarus to meet new EU sanctions with 'tough response': Lukashenko

The president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, on Nov. 15 vowed a "tough response" to an EU move to broaden its sanctions against Minsk over the current migrant crisis, having already hinted last week he could block Russian gas supplies to Europe.

The EU Council on Nov. 15 approved an amended set of sanctions against Belarus enabling the EU to target individuals and entities that facilitate the "illegal crossing" of the EU's external borders.

"We will respond to the sanctions. This is not even up for discussion," Lukashenko was quoted as saying Nov. 15 by state news agency Belta.

Last week, Lukashenko said Minsk could consider halting Russian gas deliveries to Europe in retaliation for new EU sanctions.

Without explicitly mentioning gas transit again on Nov. 15, Lukashenko moved to raise the stakes in his comments.

"They are trying to intimidate us with sanctions. Okay, we will see. They think that I did not mean what I said. Nothing of the kind. We will defend ourselves," he said.

Lukashenko also denied Belarus was deliberately stoking the migrant crisis, which has seen thousands of migrants stranded on the border between Belarus and Poland.

"Facilitating a migration flow through Belarus is more trouble than it is worth. We have never done this and do not intend to do it," Lukashenko said.

Josep Borrell, the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, said Nov. 15 the new sanctions decision against Belarus reflected the "determination by the EU to stand up to the instrumentalization of migrants for political purposes".

"We are pushing back on this inhuman and illegal practice," Borrell said.

Russia stance

Russia, meanwhile, has said the Belarus stance was not discussed ahead of time with Moscow and that it would continue to meet all of its contractual gas supply obligations.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking in an interview Nov. 13 with state broadcaster Rossiya24, said he had not been been informed by Lukashenko about the transit threat.

"I have twice talked with [Lukashenko] recently, and he never told me about it, did not even hint," Putin said.

"But he probably can [block gas supplies]. Although there is nothing good in this, and I, of course, will talk to him on this topic," he said.

"It is possible he just overreacted. This would cause great damage to the energy sector of Europe and would not contribute to the development of our relations with Belarus."

Putin went on to say that Lukashenko -- as the head of a transit country -- could in theory order Russian gas supplies to Europe to be cut.

"However, this would be a violation of our transit contract, and I hope it will not come to this," Putin said.

The gas transmission system in Belarus is owned and operated by Gazprom Transgaz Belarus, a 100% subsidiary of Russia's state-controlled Gazprom.

Formerly known as Beltransgaz, the Belarus state previously held 50% of the company, but Gazprom bought the stake in 2011, bringing its ownership to 100%.

Belarus gas transit

Belarus transits Russian gas via the Yamal-Europe pipeline into Poland and onto Germany, and is a key route for Russian deliveries to Europe.

Flows into Poland from Belarus have averaged 76 million cu m/d so far in 2021, according to data from S&P Global Platts Analytics, though deliveries began to be curtailed in August and have remained volatile since.

The veiled threat from Lukashenko comes as European gas prices remain at sustained highs, due in part to lower-than-expected imports from Russia and low storage stocks.

According to S&P Global Platts price assessments, the TTF day-ahead contract hit an all-time high on Oct. 5 of Eur116.10/MWh ($133/MWh) and has remained volatile through the remainder of October and into November.

The TTF day-ahead price was assessed at Eur74.55/MWh on Nov. 12, up 436% compared with the same assessment a year earlier.