FEATURE: Algeria closes in on implementation of new hydrocarbon law

Algeria has almost completed the process of approving the implementing texts for its new hydrocarbon law, which it hopes will kick-start a new wave of upstream investment.

The new hydrocarbons law -- first announced in late 2019 but as yet unimplemented -- is considered essential for restoring the attractiveness of Algeria's upstream sector, offering improved fiscal terms for investors.

Energy minister Mohamed Arkab, who regained his post in February after eight months away, told Algerian radio on April 26 that 95% of the implementing texts had now been published.

"The development of the texts for the application of the law on hydrocarbons is progressing well and there are only three texts still under preparation," Arkab said.

Some 70 texts in total had to be adopted for the new law to be fully implemented, which has taken much longer than originally planned.

"There has been significant delay drafting the implementation texts," Geoff Porter from consultancy NARCO told S&P Global Platts.

"Arkab is under enormous pressure from the government to get them done before the June 12 legislative election. He is also under pressure from IOCs [international oil companies] that want their projects to move forward on new legal ground," Porter said.

Arkab said "awareness-raising" work was also being carried out at the international level to encourage companies to consider investing in Algeria under the new law.

Nine preliminary agreements with international majors were signed by state-owned Sonatrach in 2020 with a view to translation into concrete projects once the law is implemented.

The first deal was with US major Chevron and was followed by MOUs with Turkey's TPAO, Russia's Zarubezhneft, the US' ExxonMobil, Russia's Lukoil, Italy's Eni, Spain's Cepsa, Austria's OMV, and Germany's Wintershall Dea.

Samer Mosis, managing analyst at S&P Global Platts Analytics, said the long-awaited law would be a "key step" in helping address Algeria's "perennially squeezed domestic gas balance."

"In a best-case scenario, renewed IOC interest will offset production decline rates," Mosis said, adding, however, that it was unclear if Algeria would be able to drum up the interest it needs given recent IOC spending cuts.

Sunny Hill controversy

Potential investors will also have taken note of the announcement on April 15 by Sonatrach that it had terminated the contractual interest held by UK-based Sunny Hill Energy in the long-delayed Ain Tsila gas project.

Sunny Hill -- formerly Petroceltic International -- has a 38.25% stake in Ain Tsila, which was initially expected to come on stream in 2017. Sonatrach holds the balance after Italy's Enel sold its 18.375% stake in 2019.

Sonatrach said its action was "in compliance with the contract" after it had "unsuccessfully" asked Sunny Hill to comply with its contractual obligations.

Sunny Hill chairman Angelo Moskov said Sonatrach's actions would be "highly damaging to the attempts by Algeria to attract foreign investment into the country" as it planned to make a claim for compensation of more than $1 billion.

It remains to be seen whether the controversy will deter other investors, though NARCO's Porter downplayed the risk, saying it was a one-off.

"Energy companies either already active in Algeria or potentially interested in Algeria all recognize that the Sunny Hill situation is specific to Sunny Hill and is not the beginning of an expropriation trend in Algeria," Porter said.

Algerian government officials have said the new legislation would mark a return to provisions in the 1986 hydrocarbons law, which led to significant discoveries in the 1990s, before changes to the regulations in the mid-2000s saw investment tail off.

A new bidding round is expected to be launched in the near future. The results of the last four bidding rounds have been acknowledged as disappointments and evidence of the poor profitability of projects offered under the tax regime of the former hydrocarbon law.

Gas rebound

According to Algerian industry officials, there are many high-potential fields in the country whose development has been put on hold.

That, and years of underinvestment, has seen Algeria's oil production decline from a peak of 1.4 million b/d in 2008 to around 1 million b/d in early 2020, before OPEC and its allies imposed drastic quotas due to the oil market collapse caused by the coronavirus.

Algeria is now producing around 880,000 b/d, according to S&P Global Platts data.

Algeria's gas exports, however, have rebounded so far in 2021.

Its pipeline exports landed in Spain and Italy jumped to 9.3 Bcm in Q1, up from just 3.9 Bcm in the same period of 2020, while its LNG exports rose by 13% to 4.3 Bcm, according to Platts Analytics data.

"Rising Algerian LNG exports in Q1 came alongside strength in pipeline exports to take overall Algerian gas exports to their highest level in three years," Mosis said.

Algerian oil-indexed gas contracts are currently in the money given strong European hub prices and the impact of the oil-indexed contract time lag.

The rise in gas exports helped Sonatrach to achieve revenues of $6.8 billion in Q1, Arkab said.

Oil and gas production totaled 46.7 million mt of oil equivalent, of which 24 million mtoe was exported, he said. The remainder was used for domestic consumption.