Western Canada gas storage remains on track to end season at seven-year low

Western Canada's natural gas inventory remains on track to end this winter at its lowest level recorded in at least seven years, prompting shortage concerns and possible price spikes.

Western Canada storage sits at 296 Bcf as of Jan. 24, according to data by S&P Global Platts Analytics. This is 24% below the five-year average of 386 Bcf as colder-than-normal temperatures are predicted for the remainder of winter in the region.

However, the East Gate point on the NGTL pipeline system is currently scheduled to have considerably more room coming summer which should help support AECO pricing and help storage refill, possibly staving off a concerning shortage, according to Platts Analytics. The East Gate is scheduled to have an average of 5.3 Bcf/d in summer 2022, up from 4.67 Bcf/d in summer 2021. This extra 500 MMcf/d would go a long way to helping keep the East Gate unconstrained and allow strong injections into storage.

This will be important this summer, as Platts Analytics' forecast model currently has Western Canada ending this winter at 225 Bcf assuming normal weather, which would be their lowest level going back to at least winter 2014-15. It should be noted that the summer of 2020 started out with 247 Bcf in storage, and the fear that inventories would not be able to refill due to NGTL constraints prompted the Canadian government to step in and implement its Temporary Service Protocol.

Last implemented in 2020, the TSP allowed downstream users increased access to storage, would was intended to ease volatility by lowering NGTL production and helping to stabilize prices.

Storage inventories in Western Canada are also being tested by multiyear high exports to US markets. Total exports from Canada to the US have increased substantially to begin the year, averaging over 6.2 Bcf/d since Jan. 5, nearly 2 Bcf/d above the prior two week's average, according to Platts Analytics. Total exports reached 6.9 Bcf/d on Jan. 15, the highest level since the February 2021 freeze but absent the freeze, the highest level since February 2019.

The increase is on the back of elevated US demand, particularly in the Upper Midwest and Northeast regions. Led by the Upper Midwest and Northeast, total US demand is forecast to continue to strengthen to average 130 Bcf/d through the end of January, likely putting Canadian exports at least flat to but likely higher than recent levels.

Platts Analytics is forecasting Western Canada inventories to be 25 Bcf lower than even the start of summer 2020, and that includes the assumption of warm weather when colder-than-normal temperatures are predicted by Environment Canada. The latest forecast calls for the high possibility of below-normal temperatures across Western Canada through the end of March.

While there is no information suggesting a TSP will be enacted this summer, the possibility of the protocol should be on the minds of market participants.