COMMODITIES 2026: Latin America-focused mining faces political shift as key votes loom

This is part of the COMMODITIES 2026 series, where our reporters bring to you key themes that will drive commodities markets in 2026.

Miners working in Latin America could see easing regulations if voters in Brazil and Peru follow Bolivia, Argentina and Chile in choosing right-of-center leaders in 2026 elections.

Bolivia, Chile and Argentina form the Lithium Triangle, a region that contains 49.57% of the world's lithium reserves, according to the US Geological Survey. In 2025, voters in the three countries backed candidates and parties who promised faster permitting and lower royalty rates for mining companies. Brazil and Peru face similar choices in 2026, potentially launching a period of more lax regulation in a bid to attract foreign investment and stimulate economic growth.

"Latin American countries are promoting mining anyway, particularly as critical minerals become globally more sought-after," Carla Selman, head of Latin American country risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence, told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy. "Right-wing governments are likely to seek to attract more private investment by offering investment incentives."

The region supplies vast amounts of key ores. Brazil accounted for 17.5% of global iron ore supply in 2024, while Peru produced 11.8% of the world's copper that year, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. Adding to the region's strategic importance, Bolivia holds the world's fourth-largest lithium reserves and resources but produced only 0.1% of global supply in 2024, reflecting ongoing development challenges. Neighboring Chile accounted for 18.9% of global lithium production and 23.8% of global copper supply in 2024, while Argentina produced 7.8% of the world's lithium.

Electoral challenges

Peru has an election scheduled for April 12, 2026, with a potential runoff on June 7, 2026. The top presidential candidates in a Dec. 4 poll were Rafael López Aliaga with the conservative Popular Renewal party, Keiko Fujimori with the ultra-conservative Popular Force party, and Mario Vizcarra -- the brother of Martin Vizcarra, former president of Peru from 2018 to 2020 -- for the centrist Peru First party. The poll was conducted by CPI Research, a Peruvian market research firm.

The upcoming vote presents a set of challenges beyond political alignment. If Peru follows Bolivia and Argentina and elects a right-wing party, the country will likely see a drastic change in mining policy. López, for example, intends to rescind mining concessions that are not active, according to Bloomberg News.

"Idle areas will revert to the state if they are not used by the formal industry," López said Nov. 6 during the Annual Conference of Executives in Peru.

Regardless of who is leading the polls, Peru's next leader will inherit pressing mining sector issues. A top priority is the regulation of informal mining, which has increasingly encroached upon formal mining operations in recent years, analysts said.

"The incoming government will likely need to prioritize this issue to strengthen control over informal and sometimes illegal mining activities while also sustaining the country's appeal for formal mining investment," said Veronica Retamales Burford, a senior Market Intelligence research analyst covering various types of risk in Latin America.

Brazil's crossroads

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva announced plans to run for a fourth term in the country's October 2026 elections. Lula was leading the race as of Dec. 2, according to a poll by consulting firm AtlasIntel and Bloomberg News.

"Under a fourth Lula term, support for major mining, particularly iron ore (mainly destined to the Chinese market), will remain unchanged," Carlos Caicedo, a senior principal Market Intelligence analyst covering political and violent risk in Latin America, said via email.

An opposition victory would be favorable for the Brazilian mining sector, with streamlined licensing and reduced environmental, social and governance restrictions expected to accelerate iron ore and gold development, the analyst said.

Regardless of who wins, the Brazilian industry is projected to attract investments totaling about $68.4 billion in 2025 through 2029, driven by global demand for iron ore and critical minerals, Caicedo said.

Leadership transition

Right-wing forces are gaining momentum in the Lithium Triangle region following recent electoral outcomes.

Centrist Rodrigo Paz won Bolivia's presidential runoff election Oct. 19, defeating rival Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga and ending nearly two decades of rule by the leftist Movement for Socialism party.

"Paz's proposals for the sector include a new mining law to strengthen the legal framework for investment, reduce taxes and grant concessions to private companies, although no further details have been given to date," said Johanna Marris, a senior Market Intelligence analyst covering Latin American country risk.

Argentina has also moved toward more industry-friendly policies. Javier Milei's Freedom Advances party secured 93 seats in the lower chamber in the Oct. 26 midterm elections, increasing from 37 seats, providing a broader mandate to enact labor and tax reforms to bolster the mining sector. Milei said in mid-November that he plans to request a review of the country's Glacier Law, that passed in 2010.

In Chile, the mining sector awaits policy direction from a new government. Conservative candidate José Antonio Kast won a presidential runoff election Dec. 14, with 58.16% of the vote for Chile's Republican Party.

"A Kast government would be more likely to seek to allow concessions in the lithium sector, which is currently not permitted as lithium is classed as a 'strategic mineral'," Selman said.

However, this rightward trend may not translate into regional cooperation on critical minerals policy.

"Even if there are three right-wing presidents, we do not believe there will be cooperation among them on lithium; they will probably each go their own way," Selman said.