COMMODITIES 2026: Mexican aluminum prices poised to rise after atypical year, sources say

This is part of the COMMODITIES 2026 series, in which our reporters bring to you key themes that will drive commodities markets in 2026.

The aluminum industry in Mexico will be entering 2026 with cautious optimism, following a year marked by US President Donald Trump's tariffs.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, spoke to key sources in the Mexican aluminum industry who expected a more dynamic panorama for 2026, despite Trump's tariffs remaining in place.

These sources suggested that 2026 would see price hikes and a more fluid market as tariffs face possible renegotiations at midyear.

Price hikes, robust market activity

Sources have expressed some optimism that 2026 will be a more active year than 2025, but the tariff effect is expected to continue until July 1, when Trump is set to negotiate the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. The agreement, also known as USMCA, replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA.

However, many sources expressed the sentiment that 2026 would return to normal, with the market expected to be more active.

"I think Trump might announce some new tariffs in January to keep everybody on their toes, but I expect 2026 to be a more dynamic market," a smelter source in the Bajio region said. "Last year, prices were stagnant for months, and the industry can't sustain that any longer."

A scrap dealer in the Northeast said: "This year was affected by the tariffs but was a stable year. For 2026, I think it could be a year of major changes and more fluid sales. I think there's a robust appetite among consumers, but I also hope next year will be relatively stable at the same time."

A second smelter source in Bajio expressed optimism about the year ahead.

"I think that, despite the ongoing tariffs, the Mexican aluminum industry is in a good place with a lot of pending projects and investments," the second smelter source said. "The auto industry is also doing well, and I don´t expect we will see the long slump we experienced in 2025."

A second scrap dealer in the Northeast said: "I see rising tendencies and high demand and prices. We hope that Trump doesn't announce any more tariffs, which could upend the market. But I think we could see a lot of movement and high prices for at least the first third of the year for some grades of aluminum scrap."

A third smelter source in the West said: "Thanks to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who imposed tariffs against China, we will see a lot of jobs for the Mexican aluminum industry. If the renegotiation of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement is successful, this could especially improve the market."

Trends influencing 2026 Mexican aluminum market

Sources suggested that the recent rebound in used beverage can prices would carry over into 2026, as well as primary aluminum possibly seeing a boost, reversing the downward trajectory of most of 2025.

When the tariffs were officially implemented in April, the effect on UBCs was immediate.

Between April and May, UBC prices fell by about Peso 10, from a high of Peso 47/kg in March to Peso 37/kg. As the months passed, demand remained minimal, and export volume was low as prices remained flat. Starting in November, UBC prices began to rebound, and sources believe this will continue into 2026.

"I believe the rising LME and a bounce back in export demand will have UBCs ticking up for quite a while," a third smelter source in the West said.

While Trump's tariff announcements sent shock waves through the Mexican aluminum industry, Platts launched a new price assessment of P1020 Primary Aluminum CIF Mexico in March 2025.

From April to November, prices fell from a high of $370/mt to $300/mt, with reported CIF Veracruz prices as low as $260/mt.

As the year drew to a close, prices climbed back to $330/mt.

"I think a complete reversal for primary aluminum prices could happen in 2026, with the premium surpassing $400/mt," a fourth smelter source in the Northeast said.

A trader source in the Northwest said, "While the premium has been stagnant, all signs indicate prices will be on the upswing as 2026 takes hold."

"6063 new bare has been high in price and low in availability for months, and this will still be the case during the next year," a third scrap dealer in the Northeast said.

Although the tariffs will remain in place until at least July, sources expect the Mexican aluminum market to remain strong, according to current trends that are seen continuing into the new year.