ArcelorMittal sees encouraging 2026 backed by EU trade tool proposal, CBAM

Arcelor Mittal sees a more encouraging outlook for 2026, sustained by the new EC proposed trade tool and Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, the largest European steelmaker said in its third-quarter earnings report Nov. 6.

"While markets are challenging and tariff-related headwinds persist, we are seeing signs of stabilization and are optimistic on the outlook for our business in 2026, when we will benefit from more supportive industry policies in key markets," Chief Executive Officer Aditya Mittal said.

The new EU proposal of 50% tariffs on steel imports above a certain quota can support a positive outlook for capacity utilization, which should enable more competitive returns on invested capital.

Domestic capacity utilization rates could rise from the current unsustainable levels of 65% to more viable rates of 80%-85%, ArcelorMittal said, citing Eurofer data.

In Q3, ArcelorMittal's total crude steel production decreased to 13.6 million metric tons compared with 14.8 million mt in Q3 2024 and 14.4 million mt in Q2 2025.

Total shipments in Q3 2025 reached 13.6 million mt, slightly up compared with 13.4 million mt in Q3 2024 but slightly down compared with 13.8 million in Q2 2025.

In ArcelorMittal's core market of Europe, crude steel production in Q3 2025 declined to 7.3 million mt from 7.5 million mt in Q2 2025 and 7.9 million mt in Q3 2024, primarily due to seasonality.

ArcelorMittal said that it will be able to review its investment priorities in its Europe segment once there is clear visibility of industry access to competitive energy, and CBAM is finalized. The new 1.1 million-mt electric arc furnace in Gijon and the EAF expansion to 1.6 million mt in Sestao continue to progress on track, it added.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed domestic HRC in Northern Europe at Eur605/mt ex-works Ruhr, and in Southern Europe at Eur590/mt ex-works Italy Nov. 5, both unchanged day over day.

Imported HRC was assessed at Eur500/mt CIF Antwerp, up Eur10/mt day over day, and at Eur490/mt CIF Southern Europe, up Eur5/mt day over day.