China’s steel exports on track to exceed 2024 level, despite possible drop in Oct

China's semi-finished steel exports hit an all-time high in July, taking the total monthly steel exports to the fourth highest in history.

While China's total exports of semi-finished and finished steel could see a notable fall in October, its annual steel exports are expected to exceed the level of 2024, hitting a new all-time high, China-based trading sources told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy.

Strong exports

China's semi-finished steel exports in July reached 1.58 million mt, up 34.4% from June and 349% higher than a year ago, latest Chinese customs data showed.

Over January-July, exports of semi-finished steel increased by 309.5%, or 5.651 million mt, on the year to 7.478 million mt.

As a result, the exports of semi-finished and finished steel totaled 11.416 million mt in July, up 5.2% from June and 39.6% higher than a year ago.

Over January-July, exports of semi-finished and finished steel increased by 20.1%, or 12.611 million mt, on the year to 75.461 million mt.

During the first seven months of 2025, imports of semi-finished and finished steel fell 27.9% year over year to 4.039 million mt. Consequently, China's net exports of semi-finished and finished steel reached 71.426 million mt, up 24.8% from a year earlier.

Some trading sources expected China's exports of semi-finished and finished steel to maintain historically high levels in August-September. The expectations stem from China's likely move to strengthen scrutiny on tax-evading trades starting Oct. 1, which are pushing exporters to ship steel products out by the end of September.

As the export rush would bring some future overseas demand forward, some sources expected steel exports to retreat notably in October. The year-over-year decline could also be significant because the exports in the same month of 2024 were the highest in history, at 12.408 million mt, they said.

"The recent rise in Chinese steel prices has also weakened export orders for October shipments," said a trading source.

"In addition, the domestic orders received by steel mills in August, especially those from the manufacturing sector, have been better than expected. Furthermore, steel mills are currently enjoying good profit margins in the domestic market. So all in all, most mills have no intention to actively secure export orders," said the source.

One mill source expected his company's August domestic automotive sheet orders to increase by 10% year over year.

Meanwhile, some producers of cold-rolled coil and galvanized coil received good domestic orders in August, and their production in September is already fully booked, said some market sources. Steel demand from solar PV producers has improved due to restocking activity, they added.

Driven by the improved domestic markets, the Platts-assessed SS400 3 mm HRC and 3SP 150 mm billet prices, indicators of flat and long steel export markets respectively, averaged $476/mt FOB China and $443/mt FOB so far in August, up 8% and 4.8% from the averages in June.

Exports may exceed 2024 levels

Although China's steel exports may significantly decline in October, most market participants expected total exports of semi-finished and finished steel in 2025 to inch higher than a year ago and record a new all-time high.

China's total steel exports in 2024 increased 25.1% on the year to a record 117.055 million mt, according to customs data.

"The total steel exports from January to July have already exceeded the same period last year by 12.611 million mt, and the steel exports in August and September are expected to remain strong. Therefore, even if there is a decline in steel exports from October to December, it is unlikely to fully offset the export growth over January-September," said another trader.

According to trading sources, due to the increasing number of antidumping cases against China's flat steel products, particularly from Vietnam and South Korea, China's flat steel exports, especially HRC, may continue to decline in the future.

However, they expected long steel products, particularly billet and wire rod, to remain strong in the long run due to low trade barriers and growing demand from emerging markets, such as Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

"Billet export orders for October shipments have been weak due to rising prices and sluggish overseas demand, but I think as exports decline, pushing domestic supply higher and weighing the steel prices down again, the export market should regain traction," said a third trader.