Brazilian lithium spodumene exports fall 73% in H1 amid market volatility

Brazil's total lithium spodumene exports fell 73% in volume during the first half of the year compared to the same period in 2024 amid bearish market sentiment that reduced global negotiations, according to data from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade of the Brazilian Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services.

Between January and June, Brazil exported 41,746 mt of spodumene, a mineral used primarily as a source of lithium. The number represents a decrease of 118,509 mt compared to the same period in 2024, which recorded 160,256 mt.

In terms of revenue, the decline represents a drop of $123 million to $24 million in H1 2025, compared to $147 million from January to June 2024.

Several market participants have reported a different rhythm for Sigma to close transactions in 2025. Some cited changes in the quality of the material, while others indicate that the company is offering small quantities of spodumene, anticipating higher prices for the commodity.

"Export shipments to date may not match precisely production dates, as a result of pricing asymmetries, which are now beginning to be self-corrected by market participants," Daniel Abdo, vice president of international relations at Sigma Lithium told S&P Global Energy.

The company also highlighted a 32% increase in production in 2025 amid an adaptation of its commercial strategy to match the seasonality and volatility of lithium market prices, following the lead of other global lithium producers.

"In addition to our ethical sustainability production standards, Sigma's lithium oxide is unique globally for its high technical qualities and is very sought after by the global leaders of the EV supply chain," Abdo concluded.

Vinicius Alvarenga, CEO of CBL, told S&P Global Energy that the company has not undergone any operational changes in the past few months and that they have been operating at full capacity both in mining and refining.

"We remain very confident in the long term, as lithium continues to show great potential for demand growth," he said.

Market surplus, weak demand

The lithium market is currently facing challenges due to a surplus and slower-than-expected demand. However, over the past month, it has shown an uptrend driven by the gain in the GFE futures contract, mostly due to supply-side disruptions, as the world's largest battery maker CATL has suspended mining.

Prices for spodumene concentrate 6% FOB Australia have plummeted from peak levels of around $8,000/mt in November 2022 to over $900/mt in recent assessments.

The lowest level recorded in 2025 was in June when the assessment registered $575/mt. In recent weeks, a strong recovery has pushed the levels up to $985/mt Aug. 15, matching the same level as June of last year.

The recent price levels recorded highlight the importance of production costs, which in Brazil range between $400 and $500/mt -- contrasting sharply with other countries, where costs generally exceed $700/mt.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed lithium spodumene 5.5-6.0% FOB Brazil at $900/mt Aug. 14, stable on the day and at a $100 increase since its launch March 24.

Ongoing production

Brazil is the world's sixth-largest lithium producer, trailing behind countries such as Australia, Chile and China, according to the US Geological Survey.

In 2024, nearly all of Brazil's lithium production was exported to China, accounting for approximately 99% of the total exports, as reported by the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services. Smaller quantities of the material were sent to countries like Japan, Germany and the US.

Brazil significantly increased its lithium production in 2024, achieving 49,844 mt of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), nearly double the 29,457 mt produced in 2023, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

This surge in production is part of a broader trend, with Brazil's lithium output steadily rising despite the decrease in exports in H1. The country is also attracting significant investment aimed at expanding its lithium production capacity.

Focus on critical minerals

Brazil's presence on the map of strategic minerals has increasingly drawn attention from governments and companies worldwide. Lithium, niobium, graphite and rare earth elements -- used in the production of batteries, electronic equipment and military gear -- are at the center of these discussions.

In July, US representative Gabriel Escobar met with representatives of the Brazilian Mining Institute (IBRAM) in Brasilia to discuss the US' interest in potential agreements with the Brazilian mineral sector, according to the institute.