US aluminum imports dip 40% on month in July after doubled tariffs: ITA

US inflows of primary aluminum fell 40% month over month in July, according to the International Trade Administration's Aluminum Import Monitor portal, during the first full month of doubled import duties as imposed by President Donald Trump.

A total of 171,132 mt of unwrought aluminum came into the US in July, down from 286,303 mt in June, the data showed. Trump signed an executive order on June 3, doubling tariffs to 50% from 25% under Section 232 for aluminum imports into the US from all origins, effective June 4.

The US, a top aluminum importer, entered into trade deals with several countries in July, but has kept the aluminum tariffs in place. With the 50% rate expected to remain a fixture in the market, higher costs for replacement units are anticipated to increasingly weigh on H2 2025 flows as domestic inventories dwindle.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the US Aluminum Midwest Premium at 71.25 cents/lb plus LME cash, delivered Midwest, July 31, stable from the prior day. The July 30 assessment was the ninth record high of 2025.

Top importers, ports

The US imported an average of 304,236 mt in H1 2025, according to the import monitor data. Canada supplied the US with a majority of imports, accounting for 70% of total H1 inflows. Other top importers by volume included the UAE, Argentina, Bahrain, India and Australia.

While South Africa was not among the top importers in May, prior to the doubled tariffs, the country was responsible for 8% of July inflows. July saw an overall decrease in the number of countries importing compared to May, the data showed.

Domestic aluminum inventories are being drawn down at a rate of anywhere from 40,000 to 80,000 mt a month, according to trader feedback, with total inventory estimations around 400,000 mt.

The US is set to receive a shipment of roughly 47,900 mt of aluminum from Bahraini maker Alba, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data from July. The shipment, which is due into the Port of New Orleans, is in transit as of Aug. 1.

Platts assessed the aluminum CIF New Orleans duty-unpaid premium at $230/mt on July 31, unchanged on the day.

On July 1, Platts launched a new assessment reflecting the cost of freight and logistics for transporting aluminum from the Port of New Orleans to the US Midwest. This was launched in response to requests for greater transparency, particularly as traditional import flows and commerce have been impacted by evolving US trade policy and the implementation of tariffs.

About 74,900 mt of aluminum have been discharged into the Port of New Orleans since the start of 2025, CAS data showed. Comparatively, roughly 24,900 mt have come in through the Port of Baltimore and another 35,400 mt through the Port of Los Angeles. A total of 635,630 mt of aluminum, between 19 completed shipments, has landed in the US since Jan. 1, according to the data.

Midwest Premium surges

Market participants have continually pointed to elevated risk with importing new units as a bullish factor for Midwest Premium values, which have risen 12.70 cents/lb or 22% since June 4. The currently assessed level is more than triple the 23.35 cents/lb Midwest Premium value from the start of 2025.

Monthly Midwest Premium averages rose each month in Q1 2025, dipping slightly in April and May before a sharp rise in June and July. July's monthly average of 67.87 cents/lb was 80% higher than the 37.75 cents/lb May average, Platts data showed.

Throughout July, sources continually eyed prices in the mid- to high 70s cents/lb as being the level needed to attract replacement units in the US.

"Everyone knows that if premiums don't go to 75 cents, that we will run out of prime P1020 in the US, as Canada has stopped all metal flow to the States because of tariffs," an extrusion official told Platts in late July.

In early July, a producer source said, "This is the number one home for aluminum in the world at this point; we're paying more than anyone else will."