Most of US aluminum sector calls for predictable trade policy after latest tariff announcement

Most of the US aluminum industry is calling for consistent trade policy amid US President Donald Trump's plan to increase tariffs on aluminum imports to 50%, with some concerned that tariff-induced market volatility may weaken domestic demand and investments, industry leaders told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy.

Trump said in a social media post May 30 that he plans to double tariffs on aluminum and steel imports from 25% to 50% June 4, though he has not yet issued an executive order implementing the change.The president previously implemented a 25% tariff on all aluminum and steel imports May 12 with the intention of bolstering the US' domestic manufacturing sector. However, industry leaders say tariffs alone will not increase aluminum production, and placing duties on important supply from Canada may be detrimental to domestic business. Chicago-based Century Aluminum, the largest US producer of primary aluminum, was a notable exception within the industry and praised the tariff announcement.

"The Aluminum Association, which represents the entire aluminum industry value chain in the United States, appreciates President Trump's continued focus on strengthening the US aluminum industry," Matt Meenan, vice president of external affairs for the Aluminum Association, said in a statement sent to Platts. "However, aluminum and steel are different. Tariffs alone will not increase US primary aluminum production nor support the $10 billion invested by the mid- and downstream industry over the past decade. We also need consistent, predictable trade and tariff policy to plan for current and future investment."

The association has stressed the importance of duty-free Canadian aluminum imports to the US aluminum sector. Two-thirds of US primary aluminum consumption is supplied by Canadian imports, according to the association.

"We urge the administration to take a tailored approach that reserves high tariffs for bad actors—such as China—that flood the market and includes carve-outs for proven partners -- such as Canada," Meenan added. "Doing so will ensure the US economy has access to the aluminum it needs to grow, while we work with the administration to increase domestic production."

Trump's social media post did not specify whether the 50% tariff on aluminum imports would apply to all countries, leaving industry leaders unclear on the new policy's impact.

"The association is in contact with the administration to better understand the details of this proposed tariff increase," Meenan said.

Century backs tariff stance

Century Aluminum, meanwhile, applauded the announcement.

"President Trump has stood firm in his support of US aluminum production and American jobs," said Jesse Gary, the company's president and CEO. "We thank President Trump for again putting America first and supporting the resurgence of the domestic aluminum industry."

As the largest primary aluminum producer in the US, Century expects significant profit increases from US tariffs on aluminum, the company said in recent earnings calls. Century reported adjusted net income of $36.6 million in Q1, up significantly from a loss of $3.0 million in Q1 2024. The company shipped 94,600 mt of primary aluminum in the US in Q1, down 3% from 97,600 mt in the same quarter last year.

Others in the US aluminum sector warned that Trump's rapidly shifting trade policy may be detrimental to the industry.

"Hydro supports free and fair trade," Anders Vindegg, head of media relations for aluminum producer Norsk Hydro, told Platts. "Our biggest concern is that increased tariffs -- and threats of increased tariffs -- create uncertainty in the market, which can weaken investment appetite and dampen US and also global demand for aluminum."

Norway-based Hydro has 28 facilities in 17 states across the US. These locations include billet, extrusion and precision tubing aluminum business units.

"We need to see the details in writing before we can fully assess the implications, but we are closely monitoring developments," Vindegg added. "What is certain is that the announced tariff increases are contributing to market volatility."

US relies heavily on imports

While the US has a strong aluminum manufacturing sector, it relies heavily on primary aluminum imports to feed its furnaces and meet demand.

The US consumed 4.9 million mt of primary aluminum in 2024, with 4.2 million mt coming from imports, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. Canada supplied the US with 2.7 million mt.

"In our view, a 50% tariff on all US aluminum imports would result in demand destruction given the extent of the country's reliance on imported material," Karen Norton, Energy principal aluminum analyst, told Platts.

"The lead times needed to restart domestic idled smelter capacity in sufficient volume to make a dent in the potential imbalance could leave the US severely short of reasonably priced metal," Norton added. "Consumers already baulking at 25% tariffs will come under even greater pressure."