ArcelorMittal expects tariffs, CBAM to restore production levels and profit in 2026

ArcelorMittal expects world ex-China apparent steel demand to grow 2% in 2026, with production and shipments rising across all regions versus 2025, supported by operational improvements and trade protections, it said Feb. 5.

In Europe, the company forecasts that the combined effect of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and new tariff rate quota measures will reset capacity utilization to higher levels, helping it to regain market share and restore profitability, the largest European steel producer said in its full-year 2025 and fourth-quarter 2025 earnings report.

"2025 was a pivotal year for the global steel industry and ArcelorMittal," Aditya Mittal, Arcelor Mittal's chief executive officer, said, adding, "While ongoing geopolitical volatility brought significant challenges, important foundations were also laid for a more supportive operating environment moving forward."

"The global economy has shifted toward greater domestic supply resilience, including widespread tariffs, leading more countries to address manufacturing competitiveness. "Nowhere was this more necessary than in Europe, where ArcelorMittal has significant, high-quality operations," Mittal said.

Trade impact

"One of the most important developments was the proposal for new trade measures in Europe and enhancements to CBAM, to level the playing field on carbon costs," Mittal said, adding, "Combined, this will enable European producers to recover to sustainable utilization levels and generate healthy returns on capital."

The new TRQ trade measures are estimated to reduce EU flat and long product imports by 10 million metric tons compared with 2024 levels, supporting the domestic market. ArcelorMittal said it has the capacity to fully meet demand, with existing furnaces able to run at higher utilization rates while idled units can restart as demand recovers.

New capacity is expected to be commissioned in 2026, including the Gijon electric arc furnace for long products and the expansion of the Sestao EAF to increase flat steel output.

ArcelorMittal's European crude steel production totaled 29.17 million mt in 2025, down from 31.21 million mt in 2024. Q4 2025 European output was at 6.4 million mt, down 11.8% quarter over quarter and 16.9% year over year, primarily due to maintenance and the sale of its Bosnian operations.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed domestic HRC in Northern Europe at Eur650/mt ex-works Ruhr Feb. 4, and in Southern Europe at Eur650/mt ex-works Italy, both up Eur5/mt day over day. The Northern European price was at its highest level assessed since May 2025, and the Southern European price was at its highest level since March 2024. Platts assessed imported material in Northern Europe at Eur505/mt CIF Antwerp, and in Southern Europe at Eur495/mt CIF Southern Europe, both unchanged day over day.

Groupwide, ArcelorMittal produced 55.6 million mt of crude steel in 2025, down from 57.9 million mt in 2024. Q4 2025 output was at 12.8 million mt, down 5.9 % quarter over quarter down by 8.6% year over year.

Mining sector

In 2025, the company produced 35.3 million mt of iron ore, up from 27.9 million mt in 2024. Q4 2025 iron ore production rose to 10.1 million mt from 8 million mt in Q3. Liberia achieved record iron ore production and shipments in 2025, supported by operational improvements and the ongoing ramp-up of Phase 2 capacity expansion. Liberia alone delivered 10 million mt of iron ore shipments in 2025, with the operation progressing toward 20 million mt annual capacity. Shipments are expected to exceed 18 million mt by end-2026 as sinter-feed output rises and the concentrator ramps up.

Platts assessed the 65% Fe North China Index at $116.55/dry mt CFR North China Feb. 5, down $1.95/dmt day over day, in line with tradable values, maintaining the spread between the 65% and 61% Fe iron ore indexes at $16.25/dmt.