US ALUMINUM: Midstream leaders look to data center boom as EV trend falters

US midstream aluminum manufacturers are seeing a shifting demand environment after the removal of electric vehicle incentives and the rise of data center construction, industry leaders said at the S&P Global Aluminum Symposium.

"The need for data centers is being driven by internet use and AI, and that's not slowing down," Allan Bennett, chief commercial officer for Metra North America, an extruder, said on a Feb. 3 panel at the Miami conference. "That's part of everyday life. Electric vehicles were at least partially driven by legislation, which is not the same thing.

The Trump administration officially ended incentives for the purchase of electric vehicles in September 2025, with demand expected to significantly dip as a result. The EV trend was seen as a boon for the aluminum sector, as EVs use more aluminum than internal combustion vehicles, but it ultimately fell short of expectations. The latest demand wave hitting the industry is the aggressive growth of data centers and AI-related infrastructure, and industry leaders see this as a more fundamentally sound market trend.

Bennett added that Metra North America expects its aluminum product demand from data center customers to be up by "several percent" in 2026, while overall demand growth for the general US aluminum extrusion market is expected to range from 0% to 1.5%.

When asked whether the data center boom is at risk of being overestimated in the same fashion as the electric vehicle trend was, panelists emphasized the necessity of AI infrastructure for the US.

"Data centers are strategic for the country itself, for the United States," Mauricio Corona Machado, chief commercial officer of Alubar, said on a panel. "China is really going for data centers, and we hear it all the time. I think it's kind of a race who is going to be first to that [AI infrastructure].

ALUBAR is one of the largest producers of aluminum rods, wires, and cables in the Americas and is a major supplier of electrical aluminum products in North America.

"Maybe it will be overestimated, but let's say we put a $400 billion investment into energy consumption for those data centers," Machado added. "If it's not $400, and it's $200 [billion], that's still a lot of money. I would say the need is there."

Less EV demand

While aluminum demand from data centers and electrical products appears very positive, panelists worried about the decline in EV--related demand.

"We are looking at a 4% drop in our market [in 2026], and we are so volume-driven that that's the equivalent of idling 2 customer assembly plants," Eric Gottschling, global director of licensing and commercialization for BorgWarner, said on the panel.

BorgWarner is a global producer of automotive components for carmakers and provides several components for electric vehicle manufacturers. Gottschling said 2026 will see impact from the loss of EV incentives in the US.

"We saw a 2% to 2.5% [increase] in 2025, which was basically a pull-through through the end of September of '25 because those incentives went away," Gottschling said. "I think you're going to see that tail off. I think you're going to see that dip, and it's going to affect all of the products that go into those vehicles because the volumes are just going to be down a bit."

The federal government's $7,500 tax credit for EVs ended in September 2025, as part of the Trump administration's One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Bennett added that the loss of other clean energy incentives is also expected to impact US aluminum markets.

"We see solar energy starting its decline as those incentives tail off as well," Bennett added.

Multiple incentives for solar energy were also curtailed by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.