Global cement demand excluding China expected to rise in 2026: analyst

The global cement industry faces a transition year in 2026, with modest recovery expected in mature markets and stable trends in emerging economies as sustained growth outside China offsets a continuing downturn in the Chinese market, Yassine Touahri, founding partner at On Field Investment Research, said Feb. 3.

Touahri expects global cement demand to fall 0.3% in 2026 from 2025, even as demand excluding China rises 4.3% year over year, he said at the Intercem conference in Dubai.

In the US, high interest rates and elevated construction costs are expected to delay a housing recovery, amid trade uncertainty weighing on non-residential construction, Touahri said.

"China's real estate crisis continued and, as a result, global cement consumption declined," he said.

In Europe and Oceania, a modest recovery is underway, Touahri said, with housing activity lifting from very low levels as interest rates begin to ease. Australia's cement demand remains supported by a strong infrastructure pipeline, he said.

Across emerging markets, Latin America should see steady growth in infrastructure investment and housing demand, while India and Africa are expected to maintain solid growth, underpinned by population growth and sustained infrastructure investment, Touahri said.

"China's cement activity is expected to remain under pressure with cement consumption per capita continuing to normalize downward from a very high level," he added.

CBAM cost impact to rise through 2034

Touahri expects 2026 pricing in North America to broadly track inflation, but with no price increases in a few coastal US states exposed to independent importers.

In Europe, he forecast average cement price increases of around 5% in 2026, driven by the introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and the phaseout of free CO2 allowances.

Price increases are expected in Latin America, and some recovery in China, while Africa and India are seen projecting only modest increases due to high competition.

CBAM represents a major structural change, estimating additional costs of Eur10-15/metric ton as early as 2026, rising to potentially more than Eur50/mt by 2034, Touahri said.

"Attention is now focused on the publication of the CBAM benchmark with leaked indication suggesting a level of around 660 kg of CO2 per metric ton of clinker," he said.

Touahri said a modest increase in energy costs is expected, mainly driven by local power prices, while international coal and petroleum coke prices remain broadly stable. Freight costs have recently trended up, but the changes in both freight and energy should be modest compared with 2022-24, he said.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed cement clinker FOB Turkey at $45/mt Jan. 29, up 25 cents/mt week over week.