COMMODITIES 2026: Brazil’s lithium sector to seek growth amid production constraints, volatile prices

This is part of the COMMODITIES 2026 series, where our reporters bring to you key themes that will drive commodities markets in 2026.

Following heightened concerns over production levels and significant price volatility from Asia, the Brazilian lithium spodumene market is expected to see more resilient price levels in 2026, amid ongoing efforts to stabilize its financial structure, according to market participants.

"We have seen a strong price recovery since August, and at this point, prices are already at levels that incentivize new projects and expansions," a Brazilian miner said. "We expect this trend to continue consolidating more gradually throughout 2026."

Brazil's total lithium spodumene exports fell 64% in volume year over year during January-December 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, according to data from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade of the Brazilian Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services.

Between January and December 2025, Brazil exported 125,636 metric tons of spodumene, a decrease of 219,857 metric tons compared to the same period in 2024, when exports reached 345,493 mt. In terms of revenue, exports fell to $66.5 million in 2025 from $285.9 million in 2024.

Three companies produce spodumene in Brazil: CBL, AMG and Sigma Lithium. Sigma Lithium accounts for nearly 70% of the market share.

Several market participants have reported challenges for Sigma Lithium in recent months, including production bottlenecks, legal complexities, and financial pressures.

In October, Sigma Lithium changed mining service providers, a move the company said was aimed at increasing efficiency at its main mine in the country. During the same period, supplier payment delays were reported by local media.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, requested comments from Sigma Lithium but had not received a response by the time of publication.

Sigma Lithium currently produces about 270,000 mt of lithium concentrate annually and is constructing a second plant, which is expected to double its installed capacity.

CBL, in contrast, has not undergone any operational changes, CEO Vinicius Alvarenga told Platts.

"In 2025, CBL's exports did not decrease in volume; on the contrary, we are increasing them," he said.

Another market participant noted that production challenges did not affect all companies.

"The decline in export volumes from Brazil this year did not impact our figures, and we remain optimistic for the year," he said. "We have observed a shift in market sentiment, and demand for stationary batteries has exceeded expectations."

Brazilian spodumene price tracks Asian trends

Since launching in March 2025, Platts Brazil Spodumene price assessment has been strongly influenced by prices in North Asia, which serve as global benchmarks. This trend is likely to persist in 2026.

In recent years, persistently low lithium prices have led several Brazilian projects, including Atlas Lithium and Lithium Ionic, to postpone their development schedules by at least a year. Additionally, some initiatives have been temporarily suspended, pending more favorable market conditions.

At the end of 2025, China's lithium prices rebounded and, in December, reached a 20-month high, driven by expectations of robust demand and operational delays at a key domestic mine.

Platts assessed lithium spodumene 5.5-6.0% FOB Brazil on Jan. 8 at $1,850/mt, up by $20 on the day and a $960 increase since its launch.

Steady lithium output amid export shifts

S&P Global Energy Cera projects Brazil will reach 51,694 mt of lithium carbonate equivalent produced in 2025, a 4% increase from 2024. This growth is slower than the previous year, when the country recorded a 69% increase compared to 2023. In 2026, production is expected to increase by 23% following operational adjustments, reaching 63,757 mt.

In 2025, nearly all of Brazil's lithium production was exported to China, which accounted for approximately 99% of total exports, as reported by the development ministry. Smaller volumes were shipped to South Korea, Italy, and Canada.

Brazil is the world's sixth-largest lithium producer, behind countries such as Australia, Chile and China, according to the US Geological Survey.